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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict.
Posted on 8/5/25 at 9:54 pm to LARancher1991
Posted on 8/5/25 at 9:54 pm to LARancher1991
quote:
Any preparation for such an invasion would be noticed well in advance giving these countries plenty of time to prepare defenses. Would Russia initially gain some ground? Most likely but it would quickly be repulsed. Also this invasion would not come until after complete control of Ukraine, there's no way Russia could open up another invasion front before that happens. If the last 3 years are any indication by the time Russia would establish complete control of Ukraine the Russian military as an effective fighting force might be diminished so much that any type of invasion is no longer possible.
Russia had amassed tons of troops along the Baltic state borders in Belarus and Russia before invading Ukraine, though most were then sent to Ukraine over the first months of the war (which didn't go as Putin planned). He also moved tactical nukes to the corner of Belarus that borders Poland and Lithuania a couple of years ago.
Did you miss that the Baltic States leaving NATO is part of Russia's floated demands for an end to the War in Ukraine?
And, again, hybrid warfare...
Newsweek 4/26/2023: Russia's Secret Plans for Baltic States Exposed
Do you remember how Crimea was invaded? It wasn't by "Russian troops," it was by "Little Green Men" in military gear who appeared everywhere suddenly but didn't cross any border points... they'd been there already for a while, and one day they just took over in force.
“If I wanted, in two days I could have Russian troops not only in Kiev, but also in Riga, Vilnius, Tallinn, Warsaw, and Bucharest.”
-Russian President Vladimir Putin, September 2014
Small Wars 8/5/2025: Could Putin Take the Baltics?
...the Russians did successfully seize Crimea in 2014 and continue to hold it (as of 2025), though they have not been able to take most of Ukraine, including Kyiv. The major difference is that Crimea is small and easily isolated, and Ukraine is large (more than 20 times larger in both land area and population) and connected to the rest of Europe. The seizure of Crimea was done by Russian special forces and proxies through a combination of infiltration, isolation, and information, not by a large military invasion. This is a threat that the Baltic States need to be concerned with, perhaps more so than an invasion.”
That would probably be the tactic in the Balkans (who have since started expelling any Russian nationals in their borders... and keeping an eye on any sympathizers, as well as trying to invalidate any sympathetic politicians)
It certainly would be the tactic in Moldova, though the little green men would pour into the country from Transnistria. But somebody bragged about that recently being in motion and kind of screwed it up...
2
Posted on 8/5/25 at 10:13 pm to LARancher1991
quote:
Can't really compare a terrorist attack to a full blown invasion of a country. Bottom line is Russia does not have the capability to launch an invasion of Europe and it turn out even remotely successful for them. They would be facing the latest and greatest of equipment that is currently giving them hell in Ukraine.
Not after Ukraine's defensive damages to the Russian army and Navy.
Posted on 8/5/25 at 10:18 pm to Lee B
quote:
Russia had amassed tons of troops along the Baltic state borders in Belarus and Russia before invading Ukraine,
The Baltic states are de-Russifying as fast as they can. Russian language is no longer the language of choice, but the one that is banned. Russians are being deported.
The Baltics don't want to sniff Russian asses any more!
Posted on 8/6/25 at 4:13 am to Lee B
quote:
Trump's envoy Witkoff lands in Moscow on last-minute trip before sanctions deadline
quote:
MOSCOW, Aug 6 (Reuters) - U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff arrived in Moscow on Wednesday on a last-minute mission to seek a breakthrough in the Ukraine war, two days before the expiry of a deadline set by President Donald Trump for Russia to agree to peace or face new sanctions.
From recent announcements from various Russian government sources, it is clear that they are desperate to stop the Ukrainian attacks on their refineries and oil storage logistics. So desperate that many sources have even floated the idea of a no-fly zone over both countries.
quote:
“The airspace ceasefire may be a gift from Putin to Trump to help Trump get out of a deadlock.”
- The Kremlin’s mouthpiece Sergei Markov “predicts” the result of Witkoff's visit to Moscow.
The deadlock being the approaching sanctions deadline, as if this is a threat to Trump rather than Putin.
Witkoff is a fool and has continually pushed the Russian narrative du jure once back in Washington. That's why the Russians want him instead of a seasoned, effective representative from the Dept. of State.
But the Russians can't avoid the truth, which is the elephant in the room here - the attacks on the refineries are the only things that will force the Russians to a ceasefire, if not a full peace agreement. And they want it immediately, while they still have refining capacity left.
This is the true leverage tool the White House has. Not sanctions but the destruction of the Ru refinery capacity. 'Kinetic sanctions' as described by the Ukrainians. Sanctions help, no doubt, but have always been effectively ignored by the Russians and their business partners.
The refinery attacks however create an instant response. This is the true Russian Achilles heel. Both the Biden WH and the Trump WH have been heavily lobbied by Russia to call off these refinery attacks. And these efforts were successful up until three weeks ago when Trump finally realized that Putin was making a mockery of his peace efforts and continued to target the Ukrainian civilian population. Now, three weeks later, the Russians are proposing a full no fly zone. How convenient.
Maybe after Witkoff gets back and begs Trump to stop those nasty Ukrainians, Trump will announce he will give it two weeks to consider... But seriously, everyone can now see the path towards a ceasefire goes through the Russian refinery network.
Step One - give the Ukrainians the Tomahawk missiles. These have the range and payload to take out anything of value from Tatarstan west. Don't give the Ukrainians permission to use them until given the target-and-time specific allowance driven by Russian non-compliance.
Step Two -
1.) Institute a no-fly zone now. Any Russian violations - even one drone grenade dropped anywhere - will result in the Ukrainians being green-lighted to hit an Ru refinery.
2.) Next, require all offensive attacks by both sides to cease. Any Russian violations - even one artillery shell fired anywhere - will result in the Ukrainians being green-lighted to hit an Ru refinery.
3.) Finally, require all Russian soldiers and little green men to be withdrawn back to Russia on a fixed very short term schedule. Like two weeks. Any Russian violations - even one missed withdrawl anywhere - will result in the Ukrainians being green-lighted to hit an Ru refinery.
Of course, the Russians will continually try to game the agreement, they can't help themselves, it's in their DNA to cheat. But very quickly they will see this behavior will leave them without any refinery capacity left. And that will end the war by itself, in spite of anything the Russians or Chinese do. Sad.
It will take a great deal of will and fortitude from Trump, two things he doesn't have, but if he wants to end this war, this is the only approach that will work.
LINK
This post was edited on 8/6/25 at 4:40 am
Posted on 8/6/25 at 5:01 am to Coeur du Tigre
Another night, another rail substation. Trying to get in the free licks while they can.
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If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 8/6/25 at 5:02 am to Coeur du Tigre
Another night, another refinery / storage depot.
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If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 8/6/25 at 5:40 am to Coeur du Tigre
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In the Rostov region [Russia], a missile fell near the village of Ovoshnoy, 7 km west of Bataysk. Reports say the missile was headed for a military base but was shot down by air defenses and crashed in the fields.
Later, it was clarified that the explosion was caused by a Russian air defense missile that detonated during launch.
What air defense doing?
Posted on 8/6/25 at 5:47 am to Coeur du Tigre
No one wants to make a decision. Trump threatens with no preparation to employ any sanctions and Modi lets the refinery owners decide. As anyone with leadership experience knows, a decision to do nothing is the worst decision you can make. In the organizations that count, you won't get another chance.
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If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 8/6/25 at 5:50 am to Coeur du Tigre
Some good news - Trump WH adding more sales to the list.
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The U.S. State Department on Tuesday approved two potential sales of military equipment to Ukraine, together worth approximately $204 Million.
The first sale includes equipment, repair services, and sustainment support for M777 Howitzers and related equipment for an estimated cost of $104 Million, while the second sale consists of transportation, consolidation services, and related equipment for an estimated cost of $99.5 Million.
Over the last three weeks, the U.S. State Department has approved a number of foreign military sales to Ukraine, in total worth upwards of $855 Million.
Posted on 8/6/25 at 6:50 am to Coeur du Tigre
Our Daily Dose of bad news from the Russian economy. Don't blame me, the Rusian government itself is publishing these figures. So we know it is almost certainly worse than reported -
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Of course, the Central Bank denied everything, but it's all a lie. It's enough to look at how many subloans the banks received from the National Welfare Fund.
Over 5 months, they were given 511 billion rubles, allegedly for the construction of a new railway (funny, the project is not even ready yet) In reality, these loans were issued to improve the quality of capital, since the banks' loan portfolio is rapidly deteriorating, and the formation of reserves looks sad.
In July, in addition to this amount, VTB received another 200 billion rubles and probably GPB received 83 billion.
List of banks that received subordinated deposits for January-May
VEB - 211 billion rubles
Sberbank - 94 billion
VTB - 93 billion
GPB - 83
Sovcombank 29.6 billion
Total - 511 billion
In July, VTB received 200 billion rubles, GPB probably another 83 billion
In total, banks received 800 billion rubles from the National Welfare Fund over 7 months
In total, over 7 months, the banks received 800 billion rubles.
And today a new article came out: the VEB came to Putin to ask for more money!
quote:
The head of VEB announced the search for new sources of capital to increase the portfolio Moscow. August 5. INTERFAX.RU - VEB needs new sources of capital to increase its portfolio, work with the government and the Bank of Russia on this issue is underway, said the head of the state corporation Igor Shuvalov to President Vladimir Putin.
quote:
And here is the profit of the TOP-30 banks. Note that the profit of GPB and Sovcombank fell by 2-6 times. GPB in 1H24 was +104 billion, now +59. Sovcombank in 1H24 was +28, and now only +4 billion rubles.
Posted on 8/6/25 at 7:01 am to Coeur du Tigre
Posted on 8/6/25 at 7:14 am to cypher
Russian attacks kill 7, injure 37 in Ukraine over past day, damage energy infrastructure
August 6, 2025 10:44 am
Russian attacks across Ukraine killed at least seven civilians and injured at least 37 over the past day, including children, regional authorities reported on Aug. 6.
The energy grid in the Odesa and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts was targeted in what Ukraine called a blow to its preparation for the winter months.
Russia launched 45 Shahed-type attack drones and decoy drones against Ukraine overnight. Thirty-six were intercepted, while nine drones hit three different locations, and downed debris was recorded in another area, the Air Force reported.
In Odesa Oblast, Russian drones struck the Izmail district, a southern part of the region near the Romanian border where the Danube River port infrastructure is based.
Gas infrastructure was damaged, resulting in a fire that was extinguished at 7:25 a.m. As a result, around 2,500 consumers were left without gas, Governor Oleh Kiper said.
The Energy Ministry said the strike targeted a compressor station of Ukraine's Gas Transmission System Operator near the Ukrainian-Romanian border.
The station is part of a route connecting Ukrainian gas facilities with Greek liquified natural gas (LNG) terminals via the Trans-Balkan pipeline, which has already been used to ship U.S. and Azerbaijani gas.
"Last night, the equipment ensuring these supplies was attacked by dozens of strike drones," the ministry said, calling it a strike "exclusively on civilian infrastructure, targeting the energy sector as well as relations with Azerbaijan and the U.S., and partners in Europe."
The Kyiv Independent
August 6, 2025 10:44 am
Russian attacks across Ukraine killed at least seven civilians and injured at least 37 over the past day, including children, regional authorities reported on Aug. 6.
The energy grid in the Odesa and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts was targeted in what Ukraine called a blow to its preparation for the winter months.
Russia launched 45 Shahed-type attack drones and decoy drones against Ukraine overnight. Thirty-six were intercepted, while nine drones hit three different locations, and downed debris was recorded in another area, the Air Force reported.
In Odesa Oblast, Russian drones struck the Izmail district, a southern part of the region near the Romanian border where the Danube River port infrastructure is based.
Gas infrastructure was damaged, resulting in a fire that was extinguished at 7:25 a.m. As a result, around 2,500 consumers were left without gas, Governor Oleh Kiper said.
The Energy Ministry said the strike targeted a compressor station of Ukraine's Gas Transmission System Operator near the Ukrainian-Romanian border.
The station is part of a route connecting Ukrainian gas facilities with Greek liquified natural gas (LNG) terminals via the Trans-Balkan pipeline, which has already been used to ship U.S. and Azerbaijani gas.
"Last night, the equipment ensuring these supplies was attacked by dozens of strike drones," the ministry said, calling it a strike "exclusively on civilian infrastructure, targeting the energy sector as well as relations with Azerbaijan and the U.S., and partners in Europe."
The Kyiv Independent
Posted on 8/6/25 at 7:22 am to cypher
Posted on 8/6/25 at 8:35 am to Lee B
Moldova yes would be fairly easy for Russia to take, guess it would depend on if they are granted full EU membership by the time Russia would try to take it. Also I don't really think you can compare the taking of Crimea to the taking of NATO countries with large NATO bases in them. If Russia was to try and use some type of "little green men" tactic there it would fail for two main reasons. One like I said very large NATO bases that will initiate a swift response to anything like this. Two, and probably the biggest thing is that after Crimea countries are on the look out for tactics like this and already have things in place to combat it. As far as the Baltics leaving NATO as a Russian demands, that was a demand that they knew they wouldn't get and was only there so it would seem like they are making concessions in negotiations.
Posted on 8/6/25 at 9:09 am to LARancher1991
quote:
Also I don't really think you can compare the taking of Crimea to the taking of NATO countries with large NATO bases in them. If
Which countries have large NATO bases in them?
Posted on 8/6/25 at 9:59 am to LARancher1991
As to Ru casualties - Ok, it's better than ballpark, worse than numbers from Graves Registration.
As noted in comments, Ru has a far higher KIA to WIA ratio (1 KIA to 1.5 WIA) due to the nature of this war and less than optimal medical care. Another critical factor is the much higher KIA to MIA rate. As Moscow has to pay death benefits to families, a MIA designation is very popular with the government. This takes the MIA out of the equation, making these calculations quite conservative.
This is also underlined by difference from the daily 1000+ casulaties per day from the Ukrainian General Staff we see posted every day. As said with any statistics, "there is room for interpretation".
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This is not a precise or fully reliable method of calculation, but it does offer a rough estimate of net attrition. The validity of such an estimate depends on the assumption that both Russian and Ukrainian figures in statements are accurate, or reasonably close to real ones
quote:
Their recruitment, at least until January 2025, was about 30,000 per month. If you subtract 9 from 30, you get 21,000. With a 1:1.5 KIA-to-WIA, that would give you 8,400 KIA and 12,600 WIA per month. Multiply 8,400 by 7, and you get nearly 60,000 KIA between January and July.
As noted in comments, Ru has a far higher KIA to WIA ratio (1 KIA to 1.5 WIA) due to the nature of this war and less than optimal medical care. Another critical factor is the much higher KIA to MIA rate. As Moscow has to pay death benefits to families, a MIA designation is very popular with the government. This takes the MIA out of the equation, making these calculations quite conservative.
This is also underlined by difference from the daily 1000+ casulaties per day from the Ukrainian General Staff we see posted every day. As said with any statistics, "there is room for interpretation".
Posted on 8/6/25 at 9:59 am to doubleb
Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania all have multiple NATO bases. Lithuania hosts the main air base for NATO aircraft patrolling the Baltic. All of these bases have seen a major enhancement in force as well since Crimea was taken. It's not like the Baltic nations are sitting ducks. There are multiple battle groups and a continued naval presence there. The naval presence isn't that large but there isn't really a threat from the Russian navy in the Baltic Sea..
Posted on 8/6/25 at 10:35 am to Coeur du Tigre
Preliminary Ru National Wealth Fund numbers from end of July. Both the gold and Yuan have the same destination and in clearly increasing amounts.
Russian gold production is a constant 27.5 metric tons per month, so a 17.8% shortfall in gold holdings in July is significant. That's what happens when you experience drops in revenue from other sources... ~coughpetroleumcough~.
We won't go into the Yuan shortfall as trying to value Yuan is a barrel of snakes. Let's just say someone's valuation on July 31 was equivalent to a 0.23% loss. Of course it's wonky, we're dealing with the most manipulated commodity on Earth.
By the way, the five largest gold mines of the 96 located in Russia are all located in the eastern half of the country. Bad news - Can't be targeted now. Good news - Will be lost after the break-up. Hell, will be the primary cause of the break-up. If anyone thinks China won't go after +/-300m/tons per year, think again.
.
Russian gold production is a constant 27.5 metric tons per month, so a 17.8% shortfall in gold holdings in July is significant. That's what happens when you experience drops in revenue from other sources... ~coughpetroleumcough~.
We won't go into the Yuan shortfall as trying to value Yuan is a barrel of snakes. Let's just say someone's valuation on July 31 was equivalent to a 0.23% loss. Of course it's wonky, we're dealing with the most manipulated commodity on Earth.
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here. By the way, the five largest gold mines of the 96 located in Russia are all located in the eastern half of the country. Bad news - Can't be targeted now. Good news - Will be lost after the break-up. Hell, will be the primary cause of the break-up. If anyone thinks China won't go after +/-300m/tons per year, think again.
.
Posted on 8/6/25 at 10:45 am to LARancher1991
Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania wrote the book on Ru current intentions and hybrid warfare and add a chapter every week. If you want to know what Russia will do even before the Russians know, these guys are the ones to call. Yeah, they punch way above their weight.
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