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re: Kamala +4 in MI, PA, and WI

Posted on 8/10/24 at 8:20 am to
Posted by skullhawk
My house
Member since Nov 2007
27113 posts
Posted on 8/10/24 at 8:20 am to
quote:

You can support the guy and still want him to do better to win a national election.


I point Trump's flaws out all the time, but the guy got the most legit votes of any candidate in history last time around, and he's much tamer with his “meanness” this go around.

Trump wants to play policy. Kamala and company say empty platitudes while figuring out how to get the most “votes”.

I think he has one shot to break her at the debate. She’ll have the questions, she’ll have the moderators, she’lp have the format but she is very vulnerable to legit attacks.

Also, is Trump spending now or holding back? I've probably seen 20 Kamala ad spots on national tv and I watch about an hour tops per day. Nothing from Trump.
Posted by Lou Pai
Member since Dec 2014
29471 posts
Posted on 8/10/24 at 8:21 am to
quote:

There are multiple polls that show Trump winning, including trafalgar


Posted by Mandtgr47
Member since Aug 2024
7918 posts
Posted on 8/10/24 at 8:21 am to
quote:

au4you


Idiot. We all know that he has flaws. He is not a politician. What you think are flaws, is what attracts so many to him...he tells it like it is instead of the word salad from normal politicians.

He could literally come out on stage with a joint hanging out of is mouth, a beer in his hand, and start telling us why white women, and women in general should not be allowed to vote...and he would be right, but he would be hammered over it.

Point is we vote for his policies....as hard as it is for you to understand, most all of us believe in god, family, hard work, support yourself......and his policies support that, as well as an overall better economic policy and immigration policy.....vs the garbage you are running out there with those overly radical individuals you have on your party ticket, that wont even discuss their policies...because they only have wokeness as their #1 policy. Plus, they are anti-god and anti-family.

As for his campaign, lol, she was just officially named the candidate, and haven't even gone past the convention. Save the money and energy until after then go hard for the last 60 days tearing apart their policy. Watch what happens.
This post was edited on 8/10/24 at 8:28 am
Posted by Riverside
Member since Jul 2022
8339 posts
Posted on 8/10/24 at 8:22 am to
This is 2016 all over again. There are going to be some despondent leftists this Thanksgiving.
Posted by Mandtgr47
Member since Aug 2024
7918 posts
Posted on 8/10/24 at 8:26 am to
quote:

She’ll have the questions, she’ll have the moderators, she’lp have the format


this is what is so sad. If we had real journalist anymore, they would hammer her on her policies, and other perceived weaknesses just like they do to Trump...but they won't and don't do that. Yet, they say they stand for democracy. LOL
Posted by Demonbengal
Ruston
Member since May 2015
4850 posts
Posted on 8/10/24 at 8:28 am to
Does anyone know the internals? What was the breakdown of dem, rep, Indy’s?
Posted by cwil1
Member since Oct 2023
907 posts
Posted on 8/10/24 at 8:29 am to
The president on the republican side is also.
Posted by cwil1
Member since Oct 2023
907 posts
Posted on 8/10/24 at 8:29 am to
“We’re not auth-right, we swear”.
Posted by Tesla
the Laurentian Abyss
Member since Dec 2011
9108 posts
Posted on 8/10/24 at 8:30 am to
5% more Dems polled across the board.
Posted by Riverside
Member since Jul 2022
8339 posts
Posted on 8/10/24 at 8:33 am to
We shouldn’t also discount the Wilder Effect. It’s a real thing—even in 2024. I think we are seeing the Wilder Effect in the Rust Belt polling.
Posted by Dex Morgan
Member since Nov 2022
3144 posts
Posted on 8/10/24 at 8:33 am to
Sure, Jan.
Posted by Demonbengal
Ruston
Member since May 2015
4850 posts
Posted on 8/10/24 at 8:34 am to
Seriously? If it’s +5 dem than it’s garbage
Posted by GumboPot
Member since Mar 2009
138911 posts
Posted on 8/10/24 at 8:37 am to
Interesting. In this poll they asked respondents how they voted in 2020. It Had a +5 Biden response.

Kamala lost one point from this sample.
Posted by GeneralLee
Member since Aug 2004
13946 posts
Posted on 8/10/24 at 8:38 am to
If you look at the cross tabs in the poll, it’s like D+5 and the Biden vote from 2020 is like +6-8 in those states while he only won those states by 1-3 percent or less. So, if you unskew the poll, Trump likely still wins in these states.
Posted by GumboPot
Member since Mar 2009
138911 posts
Posted on 8/10/24 at 8:41 am to
quote:

If it’s +5 dem than it’s garbage


It’s not garbage if you weight the poll properly. However they asked a poll question of how respondents voted in 2020 and they responded with +5 Biden.

The reason they asked this question is to justify heavily weighting the Dems in this sample.

They are being tricky.
Posted by masoncj
Atlanta
Member since Jun 2023
599 posts
Posted on 8/10/24 at 8:43 am to
You might want to check the weighting on the polls samples in those states again. Dem +4-6 is a joke
Posted by TigerCoon
Member since Nov 2005
22465 posts
Posted on 8/10/24 at 8:45 am to
It's hard to comprehend that there are heterosexual men who would vote Kamala over Trump.

I'm not expecting the OP to explain it.
Posted by GumboPot
Member since Mar 2009
138911 posts
Posted on 8/10/24 at 8:46 am to
If +5 of your sample voted for Biden in 2020 you would expect Kamala to be +5 in this poll. She is +4. That is called losing ground in Republican schools.
Posted by narddogg81
Vancouver
Member since Jan 2012
21885 posts
Posted on 8/10/24 at 8:47 am to
quote:

That's semi gaslighting. She has a narrow lead in a lot of polls in those states.

Kamala having a narrow lead in polls that usually have a plus 5-10 in Democrat participants is not really a win for her
Posted by BigD43
Member since Jun 2016
1293 posts
Posted on 8/10/24 at 8:47 am to
Polls mean nothing in August.
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