re: Iran Threatens No More Negotiations Closure of SoH Over Israeli Attacks on Lebanon

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Predictably, Iran has called off their trip to Switzerland tomorrow.

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They’re too busy bringing the global economy to its knees

Which is why we are doing it the other way.

Patience.

Let him cook.

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They’re too busy bringing the global economy to its knees

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If you don't have radar, or you're too scared to turn it on, turns out just cutting your running lights is sufficient because the bass boats aren't coming out looking for you for some reason.

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The US Navy kept their distance too....they provided guidance and intellgence.. if.the realities of the Straight are we secured it ....the insurance companies are pussies...and that it. Then why arent we escorting them ...sincerely.maybe there is a reason Im.missing?

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or did the Israelis do something to cause them to exist?

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Yes. Israel existed. That’s the point.

And from your post, I take it that you believe all that military force hurled at Israel and her civilians is justified.

I don’t.

Muh COVID!

Got my “global economy brought to its knees” bug out bag all packed and ready to go. Had to put the zombie apocalypse stuff in storage to free it up.

How long do you suppose it will take for the Iranian military bass boats and drones to bring the global economy to its knees? I’ve got some perishables in the bag so…..

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is/was. A US military arse kicking. To the extent they were allowed to kick arse.

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You really dont understand how saying someone is rooting against the military by pointing out weaknesses in strategy is childish. Even if I was completely wrong that doesnt mean Im a rooting for our failure. It means I was wrong in my analysis..How do you think war games are played out?

Allowed by whom....the president...why didnt he allow them to destroy Iran to point they had to surrender.....no deal ......total surrender....he had them by the balls right? Thats what you are going with right Come on......... Iran ran out the clock by having a threat we couldnt deal with in a timely fashion and that was politically viable for Trump or economically for the rest of.the world. And he pretty much has said as much in recent days
There maybe some good that comes out of this ... you want some.pluses ...the rest of the gulf gets its shite together and stops relying on us at some point for security.

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takeaway

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takeaway was that the ship would need to fully replenish stocks every couple of days, and ultimately that's not sustainable for any length of time

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The sailors that inferred that analysis were obviously rooting against themselves according to some folks on this board.

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Iran’s own Muslim neighbors will turn on them if they don’t drop the Jihad BS.

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Hmmm... not too informed of a post. Iran's Sunni Muslim neighbors have NEVER been on the side of Khomeini-controlled Iran...

Iran is by far a Shia-majority country, and while it has a secular population, it is controlled by Shia fundamentalists.

Iraq - we turned it from a secular Sunni Dictatorship to a democracy, controlled by the Shia majority population by ousting Hussein. ISIS (Sunni) was founded by Hussein's deposed military leaders, who had been life-long secular Ba'athists but suddenly saw the light... of Islam as a recruiting tool for young fighters from around the region to try to retake the government from the Shia majority. ISIS is actually complete bullshite on the religious front...

The neighbors?

Pakistan = controlled by Sunnis.

Saudi Arabia = controlled by Sunnis.

Lebanon - Shia Muslims (32.2%), Sunni Muslims (31.2%), Maronite Christians (16.0%), Greek Orthodox Christians (7.6%), and Druze (5.5%). Democracy... different coalitions between these sects and their political parties end up in control.

Egypt - Controlled by secular Sunnis... the Muslim brotherhood won an election after the Arab Spring when they had a jump on the parties scrambling to organize themselves (opposition parties were not allowed under the preceding military dictatorship, the MB just said "we're now a political party in addition to a religious organization) but the secular middle-class and affluent population rebelled when they tried to institute Sharia Law and the military staged another coup... which the people mostly seem happy about at this point.

Afghanistan - Controlled by Sunnis (Taliban)

Oman - the rulers moved to Ibadism from Sunnism... that's the official state sect.*

Jordan - controlled by Sunnis (98% of their population)

UAE - controlled by Sunnis

Qatar - controlled by Sunnis

Kuwait - controlled by Sunnis

Azerbaijan - majority Shia... BUT the most secular majority Muslim country... not motivated by religion (a leftover from the long period of atheist Soviet Union control)

Turkey - controlled by Sunnis.

Turkmenistan - majority Sunni, but no official state religion (leftover from atheist USSR control).

Yemen - a shitshow with three factions fighting for control of the country: the PLC (the internationally-recognized offical government), backed by the Saudis; The STC, backed by UAE; and the Houthis, backed by Iran.
Sunni is the majority sect in the country, but the Houthis as Shia.

Syria - majority Sunni population, previously controlled by a tiny minority of Alawites (Shia) in the Assad regime, but in reality they were members of the Arab Socialist Ba'athist party, which was secular...

Palestine - Sunni.

With that out of the way...

Fundamentalist Shiites believe that Sunnis are heretics and must be destroyed.

None of this was a factor when the Shah was in charge in Iran, because he - like Saddam Hussein and Muammar Gaddafi and Hafez al-Assad and his kid... - wanted modern, educated and westernized countries... and they had to fight fundamentalist Islamics in their country who wanted religious-based control. The problem in these countries is that they are long-running Monarchies, where the majority of the population is impoverished and pissed, or they were dictatorships set up by the French and British after WWI to be "soft-Imperialism" - rather than militarily occupying these countries to get their resources, they figured out if they put a vulnerable minority group in control they would be forever dependent on them for military aid and support to stay in power and would give sweet deals on the resources in exchange. And when the givernments are toppled, you either have a "democracy" where the Mosques proclaim themselves political parties and have a big advantage in organization and win, or you have all the various groups in teh counrties fighting for control.

Anyway, a Fundamentalist Shia Iran emerging in 1978 instantly meant all of the Sunni neighbors were blood enemies. They have never supported Khomeini Iran... they have always feared it.

Oman chose Ibadism to remove itself from the Sunni vs. Shia fight.

But Palestine is Sunni? Yep... so why is Shiite Iran supporting Sunni Hamas? (Hezbollah is Shia, while the West Bank is very much majority Sunni... but Hezbollah is a Lebanese group that took control of the West Bank in a vacuum). Because Khomeini's government HATES Israel... so they will bankroll someone fighting Israel, and just kill them later when that's done.

So the neighboring Sunni states hate Israel?

They did... they opposed its formation and have funded tons of stuff to mess with it... but, the leaders never liked the Palestinians much, either. and over the last 25 years, the leadership of those countries has turned over, and the old resentments have faded, so to someone like the present Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, Israel seemed like a chill and reasonable neighbor that he didn't need any beef with since Iran was a pain in his arse. The reason Hamas did the October 7th attack was that the Sunni states in the region were at the point of acknowledging Israel and normalizing relations with them, and they wanted to make sure that would/could not happen. And that attack PISSED off Iran, because Hamas was supposed to be an irritant that kept Israel preoccupied, not get them so pissed off they went all out.

And Hamas pulled that off... the people on the streets in all of those Sunni countries don't think like the leaders (but they have no political power)... we'll see if they destabilize the governments or put pressure on the leaders to oppose Israel.

The Israeli far right... apocalyptic nutjobs who Netanyahu had to bring into his coalition to stay in power (and stay out of jail for corruption) want to seize chunks of Syria, Jordan, Lebanon, and beyond, as they believe they have to do to bring about the arrival of the Messiah. That's going to complicate things with the neighboring states. Turkey is almost at the point of going to war with Israel over its attacks on Lebanon and Syria.

Iran's allies are Iraq to some degree now that we turned them into a Shia-controlled country, Russia, China, and South Korea... not their neighbors.