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Iran - Will he? Won't he?

Posted on 5/8/18 at 10:23 am
Posted by Clockwatcher
Member since May 2018
18 posts
Posted on 5/8/18 at 10:23 am
Oil prices plunge after conflicting reports on Trump's Iran nuclear deal decision



quote:

Oil prices fell ahead of President Donald Trump's decision on whether to withdraw the United States from the Iran nuclear deal.

Trump is expected to announce that he will no longer suspend sanctions aimed at Iran's oil exports, a move that equates to a U.S. exit from the nuclear deal.

Some traders say Trump will leave his administration wiggle room to continue negotiating a revised nuclear deal with European allies.


This post was edited on 5/8/18 at 10:25 am
Posted by Wtodd
Tampa, FL
Member since Oct 2013
67482 posts
Posted on 5/8/18 at 10:24 am to
I think we're out of the deal
Posted by tigersbb
Member since Oct 2012
10283 posts
Posted on 5/8/18 at 10:26 am to
Maybe I will, maybe I won't

I don’t wanna find my home
Just wonder what happened to it
My hand’s all caught in stones
Who stole all my bones?
All my forgotten poems
Are a joke

What do I know?
Maybe we're wrong,
Doesn’t it show
People get old
When they’re alone?

Maybe I will, maybe I won’t
Posted by TaderSalad
mudbug territory
Member since Jul 2014
24634 posts
Posted on 5/8/18 at 10:31 am to
inb4 the proggies come in beating the war drum
Posted by kingbob
Sorrento, LA
Member since Nov 2010
67027 posts
Posted on 5/8/18 at 10:34 am to
My theory is that we will exit the deal, Israel will wipe out Iran’s forces in Syria, the Iranian economy, which is already in a death spiral, will collapse and a popular uprising will oust the Ayatollah from power and result in a functional, westernized, democratic republic like what the people thought they were getting last time before the mullah’s hijacked the revolution.
Posted by CoachChappy
Member since May 2013
32515 posts
Posted on 5/8/18 at 10:37 am to
quote:

My theory is that we will exit the deal, Israel will wipe out Iran’s forces in Syria, the Iranian economy, which is already in a death spiral, will collapse and a popular uprising will oust the Ayatollah from power and result in a functional, westernized, democratic republic like what the people thought they were getting last time before the mullah’s hijacked the revolution.


That's some pie in the sky stuff right there, but I hope you are correct.
Posted by jamboybarry
Member since Feb 2011
32642 posts
Posted on 5/8/18 at 10:38 am to
quote:

My theory is that we will exit the deal, Israel will wipe out Iran’s forces in Syria, the Iranian economy, which is already in a death spiral, will collapse and a popular uprising will oust the Ayatollah from power and result in a functional, westernized, democratic republic like what the people thought they were getting last time before the mullah’s hijacked the revolution.


We've had such great success with popular uprisings here recently I have no doubt this would be a resounding success.
Posted by bamarep
Member since Nov 2013
51798 posts
Posted on 5/8/18 at 10:41 am to
I think he puts stipulations on the US staying in that he knows good and well Iran won't agree too.
Posted by GetCocky11
Calgary, AB
Member since Oct 2012
51251 posts
Posted on 5/8/18 at 10:41 am to
NYT reporting that we are withdrawing
Posted by Bard
Definitely NOT an admin
Member since Oct 2008
51489 posts
Posted on 5/8/18 at 10:45 am to
Iran has been making lots of noise about what they would do if we pull out. We've seen Trump's reaction to threats from piss-ant backwaters.




The Iranian deal was also a biiiiig talking point for him on the campaign trail and has continued to be since he became President.

Translation: we're pulling out.

If the Iranians do anything, it wouldn't shock me if it were against Israel.
Posted by Big12fan
Dallas
Member since Nov 2011
5340 posts
Posted on 5/8/18 at 10:46 am to
quote:

My theory is that we will exit the deal, Israel will wipe out Iran’s forces in Syria, the Iranian economy, which is already in a death spiral, will collapse and a popular uprising will oust the Ayatollah from power and result in a functional, westernized, democratic republic like what the people thought they were getting last time before the mullah’s hijacked the revolution.


You're living in a dream world. The anti-American mood among the Iranian public is far greater than the anti-clerical mood in Iran. And don't forget, Hezbollah in Southern Lebanon is their back door to Israel with over 100,000 missiles. Oh and let's not forget that Russian is now firmly entrenched in Syria. Quagmire is not a strong enough word which could arise from an "elective" war with Iran.
Posted by kingbob
Sorrento, LA
Member since Nov 2010
67027 posts
Posted on 5/8/18 at 10:47 am to
The difference is culture. Iraq and Iran are not similar when it comes to their traditions of democracy. Iranians have essentially had the trappings of democracy for decades. The issue is the Ayatollah gets final say on who can run and who wins. This has sparked massive protests repeatedly over the last two decades. The people want the Ayatollah’s thumb off of the scale so they can have a real representative democracy. The last several progests have been put down brutally by the Iranian Republican Guard, much of which is now bogged down fighting the rebels and Kurds in Syria. Meanshile, the Iranian economy is in freefall back home with a currency crisis on the verge of going full Venezuela. The people want the secret police gone, they want the censorship of the internet removed, they want access to the west, they want free elections. These aren’t a bunch of Wahabists, tribes, and sectarians like in Iraq and Afghanistan. Iran is a real country with a real identity, functional government, real courts, and history of democracy. They just need the guys at the top thrown out. They don’t need to build a nation from scratch.
This post was edited on 5/8/18 at 10:49 am
Posted by tigerpawl
Can't get there from here.
Member since Dec 2003
22239 posts
Posted on 5/8/18 at 10:48 am to
So why did prices tank? It implies future players thought Trump would nix the deal, thereby increasing tensions and decreasing whatever level of stability existed, and placing upward pressure on oil prices. Does this mean they're betting Trump will NOT nix the deal?
Posted by MrLSU
Yellowstone, Val d'isere
Member since Jan 2004
25953 posts
Posted on 5/8/18 at 10:51 am to
You are underestimating the Saudis/Egyptians/Jordanians and others who will take action as well.

Also remember that Hezbollah, Iran, and Syria have troop numbers will are already at historic lows because of the 10 year civil war that has been going on.
Posted by LSU Patrick
Member since Jan 2009
73472 posts
Posted on 5/8/18 at 10:55 am to
quote:

I think we're out of the deal


I agree. There is very little support for this deal with the exception of the true Obamatons.
Posted by Homesick Tiger
Greenbrier, AR
Member since Nov 2006
54202 posts
Posted on 5/8/18 at 11:05 am to
quote:

There is very little support for this deal with the exception of the true Obamatons.



Trump is actually letting a lot of Dems off the hook if he pulls out of the deal. You know there had to be several Dems that knew the deal was shite so they supported their party's stance and not America's stance. Remember, Obama said "this is what America wants" even though polls showed 67% of Americans were against the deal.
Posted by lsu480
Downtown Scottsdale
Member since Oct 2007
92876 posts
Posted on 5/8/18 at 11:06 am to
We are out and sanctions are back in!!!!
Posted by Homesick Tiger
Greenbrier, AR
Member since Nov 2006
54202 posts
Posted on 5/8/18 at 11:09 am to
Posted by wareaglepete
Lumon Industries
Member since Dec 2012
10938 posts
Posted on 5/8/18 at 11:14 am to
quote:

So why did prices tank?


Prices had gone up on initial speculation that President Trump would pull out and levy severe sanctions on Iranian oil, but now the thinking is President Trump will withdraw, but try to meet in the middle on any sanctions. This caused prices to go down. The title of the article is misleading.
Posted by kingbob
Sorrento, LA
Member since Nov 2010
67027 posts
Posted on 5/8/18 at 11:24 am to
Assad will be left in control in Syria as a deal which removes the militant wing of Hezbollah from Lebanon and topples the top of the Iranian regime. This wouldn’t be a complete destruction of the Iranian government, merely the removal of the Ayatollah from political power allowing for free elections and free voicing of dissent without reprisal. The rest of the government structure would remain intact.

Don’t believe the hype. The vast majority of Iranians don’t give two f$&ks about the U.S. nor do they actively hate us. They just want to be left alone to pick their own leaders without having their choices selected for them.
This post was edited on 5/8/18 at 11:25 am
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