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Posted on 8/14/24 at 9:21 am to BugAC
quote:
Not a single normal person, who buys groceries, gas, pays utility bills, buys clothes, etc... believes that inflation has "cooled"
I just got my car insurance bill. It goes up $80 for two cars every 6 months. No accidents, no claims.
Posted on 8/14/24 at 9:26 am to Zach
quote:
just got my car insurance bill. It goes up $80 for two cars every 6 months. No accidents, no claims.
One of the bigger parts of inflation reports
How does a fed hike/cut effect that?
Posted on 8/14/24 at 9:29 am to SDVTiger
quote:
All that easy money from years of basically zero is what got us here in the first place. Rates should never drop below the 4-5% range
quote:
So you are fine with a 1.25 cut
Thanks for agreeing we need cuts
Your "gotcha" doesn't follow from what he said at all. First he said he thinks the rate should never drop BELOW the 4-5% range. He didn't say it should never be higher. Second the rate is currently just over 5% which close to the range he said should be the lowest it should go. Nothing he said even remotely suggests that he thinks it should be a 1.25% cut.
He obviously thinks with inflation just now coming off some historic highs and still at 3% (still above where the Fed wants it to be) and consumer spending STILL holding pretty steady (because people are STILL willing to take on debt even at the current rates) that it probably doesn't make sense to lower them right now and give people access to even cheaper debt at this time.
He's probably right. Purely from what the Fed itself has said and most economic metrics rates should NOT be lowered in September. The only reason they would do it is trying to foolishly predict something that they have said would have already happened for a year (and has not) or because it is political. .
This post was edited on 8/14/24 at 9:32 am
Posted on 8/14/24 at 9:31 am to elposter
quote:
BELOW the 4-5% range.
Right and a 1.25% cut would put us at 4%
So it wouldnt be below 4%
Posted on 8/14/24 at 9:37 am to SDVTiger
quote:
Right and a 1.25% cut would put us at 4%
So it wouldnt be below 4%
Did you even read the rest? Your gotcha attempts make you look limited. I'm sure you aren't but that's how you are coming across.
Posted on 8/14/24 at 9:38 am to Big Jim Slade
quote:
I’m convinced that many would prefer identity politics over the economy
Agreed! People don't want to be fiscally responsible.That requires sacrifice. Being an SJW, allows you to make a few posts, then get back to your white wine and Xanax
Posted on 8/14/24 at 9:41 am to jrobic4
quote:ew. I'll stick with my Miller and cocaine thank you very much.
then get back to your white wine and Xanax
Posted on 8/14/24 at 9:41 am to udtiger
Still 45% higher than the historical target. No rate cut until we get back to 2.0%
Posted on 8/14/24 at 9:41 am to jrobic4
In last 10yrs , Case Schiller national home price index is up 96% for a 7+% annualized increase
$GLD is up 81% for a 6 1/8% annualized increase
Total UST debt is up 99%
Inflation is when too many printed dollars are chasing too few goods
The idea inflation all better a joke
$GLD is up 81% for a 6 1/8% annualized increase
Total UST debt is up 99%
Inflation is when too many printed dollars are chasing too few goods
The idea inflation all better a joke
Posted on 8/14/24 at 9:43 am to elposter
quote:
Did you even read the rest?
Its not a gotcha
If the rate is 5.25 and he said NOT BELOW 4% then a 1.25 cut would be fine
I mean its just math. You can ramble on thinking you are smart all you want
Posted on 8/14/24 at 9:49 am to udtiger
quote:
Amazing what you can do when you game the frick with the metrics.
Well, that has been the purpose of the rate hikes over the last year and a half. That is the positive; the negative is the economic slowdown, and the trick is to cut rates at just the right moment to capture the lower inflation but spur just enough economic activity to keep from a recession.
Posted on 8/14/24 at 9:55 am to SDVTiger
quote:
Its not a gotcha
If the rate is 5.25 and he said NOT BELOW 4% then a 1.25 cut would be fine
I mean its just math. You can ramble on thinking you are smart all you want
I'll try one more time. He said "Rates should never drop below the 4-5% range." Obviously that means he thinks that is the low end where rates should ever be. With the current economic indicators (including inflation and consumer spending STILL being higher than normal) and the Fed's own statements and benchmarks for cutting rates not being met it's pretty clear that the poster would not "be fine with a 1.25 rate cut" taking it down to 4% like you are saying.
Everything except "well it's just time" or "political pressure" suggests rates should not be cut in September.
Posted on 8/14/24 at 9:56 am to elposter
quote:
Rates should never drop below the 4-5% range
Great its at 5.25 so if he doesnt want it BELOW 4% then there is room for 1.25 cut in his mind
I mean wtf is wrong woth you
quote:
Everything except "well it's just time" or "political pressure" suggests rates should not be cut in September.
You cant be serious
This post was edited on 8/14/24 at 9:58 am
Posted on 8/14/24 at 9:57 am to themunch
US Bureau of Labor Statistics The CPI rose 2.9% from June 24, 2024.
2024 Jan. 0.3 Feb. 0.4 March 0.4 April 0.3 May 0.0 June -0.1 July 0.2
Posted on 8/14/24 at 9:58 am to SDVTiger
quote:
Great its at 5.25 so if he doesnt want it BELOW 4% then there is room for 1.25 cut in his mind
I mean wtf is wrong woth you
Okay I take it back.
Your ability to understand is in fact limited.
Posted on 8/14/24 at 10:02 am to elposter
quote:
Your ability to understand is in fact limited.
You just rambled on with a bunch of nonsense
Posted on 8/14/24 at 1:23 pm to udtiger
Another celebratory talking point is that inflation is now as low as it was in March 2021.
In other words, it's been 3% or higher for over 3 fricking years.
In other words, it's been 3% or higher for over 3 fricking years.
Posted on 8/14/24 at 1:43 pm to udtiger
What does inflation % look like for 2010 through 2019 (cumulative) compared to 2020 through today?
The annual reset just makes things confusing.
The annual reset just makes things confusing.
Posted on 8/14/24 at 1:49 pm to BugAC
quote:
Last year? Way to move that goal post short bus. Try since Trump was in office.
Why would i compare the Harris/Biden economy from last year to the Harris/Biden economy this year?
I take it, you don't have kids, nor a spouse. I keep a spreadsheet and have been doing so for over 10 years tracking our finances since my wife and I got married. In 2019, my budget for groceries was $200/week.
Umm…the 2.9% inflation figure is not a figure comparing prices in 2024 to prices five years earlier in 2019. That’s not how it works.
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