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Individual State Election Odds via 5dimes
Posted on 6/3/20 at 11:50 am
Posted on 6/3/20 at 11:50 am
Arizona: D -120 R -120
Colorado: D -600 R +400
Florida: D +140 R -165
Georgia: D +180 R -260
Iowa: D +210 R -290
Michigan: D -165 R +120
Minnesota: D -320 R +240
New Hamp: D -230 R +170
North Car: D +115 R -155
Pennsylvania: D -155 R+115
Wisconsin: D -140 R +100
Some good value for Trump in Minnesota imo
Colorado: D -600 R +400
Florida: D +140 R -165
Georgia: D +180 R -260
Iowa: D +210 R -290
Michigan: D -165 R +120
Minnesota: D -320 R +240
New Hamp: D -230 R +170
North Car: D +115 R -155
Pennsylvania: D -155 R+115
Wisconsin: D -140 R +100
Some good value for Trump in Minnesota imo
8
Posted on 6/3/20 at 11:52 am to zzgobucky
quote:
Arizona: D -120 R -120
Colorado: D -600 R +400
Florida: D +140 R -165
Georgia: D +180 R -260
Iowa: D +210 R -290
Michigan: D -165 R +120
Minnesota: D -320 R +240
New Hamp: D -230 R +170
North Car: D +115 R -155
Pennsylvania: D -155 R+115
Wisconsin: D -140 R +100
Posted on 6/3/20 at 11:53 am to zzgobucky
Michigan seems like a good value.
Half-Whitmer has poisoned the well for Biden. And she is a campaign chair for him IIRC.
Half-Whitmer has poisoned the well for Biden. And she is a campaign chair for him IIRC.
Posted on 6/3/20 at 11:54 am to DarthRebel
$100 on Trump winning Colorado wins you $400. $600 on Biden winning Colorado wins you $100
Posted on 6/3/20 at 11:55 am to zzgobucky
quote:
Arizona: D -120 R -120
Colorado: D -600 R +400
Florida: D +140 R -165
Georgia: D +180 R -260
Iowa: D +210 R -290
Michigan: D -165 R +120
Minnesota: D -320 R +240
New Hamp: D -230 R +170
North Car: D +115 R -155
Pennsylvania: D -155 R+115
Wisconsin: D -140 R +100
Trump needs 2 of 4 of these to win
Posted on 6/3/20 at 11:55 am to zzgobucky
That doesn't bode well.
Posted on 6/3/20 at 12:00 pm to DarthRebel
Democrats are heavy favorites.
Posted on 6/3/20 at 12:17 pm to boogiewoogie1978
Actually Biden is only a slight favorite for overall election -120
Posted on 6/3/20 at 12:34 pm to boogiewoogie1978
quote:
Democrats are heavy favorites.
Apparently you can’t read either
Posted on 6/3/20 at 12:34 pm to zzgobucky
Arizona: D -120 R -120
Whuh? Maybe I don't bet enough, but seems like some bookies are cooking this particular book.
Both sides favored to win?
Whuh? Maybe I don't bet enough, but seems like some bookies are cooking this particular book.
Both sides favored to win?
Posted on 6/3/20 at 12:39 pm to BigJim
quote:
Arizona: D -120 R -120
Whuh? Maybe I don't bet enough, but seems like some bookies are cooking this particular book.
Both sides favored to win?
That's how books make money.
Its also why spread totals on most sports matchups are -110 to bet.
Person A pays bookie 110 to win 100 on LSU -7
Person B pays bookie 110 to win 100 on Alabama +7
-----
LSU wins by 10.
Person A receives 210 from the bookie
Bookie profits $10
Posted on 6/3/20 at 12:41 pm to BigJim
Means it's a toss up
Posted on 6/3/20 at 1:00 pm to DallasTiger11
quote:
Apparently you can’t read either
I can read spreads and the states that will decide the election are HEAVY democrat favorites according to those lines.
Posted on 6/3/20 at 1:00 pm to BigJim
quote:
Both sides favored to win?
Means they are tied = toss up state
Posted on 6/3/20 at 1:04 pm to zzgobucky
Predictit has the odds pretty heavy in Biden’s favor.
53 to 45
53 to 45
Posted on 6/3/20 at 1:08 pm to Redleg Guy
Trump was -120 earlier in the week. All this said, Hillary was a comfortable favorite even on Election Day.
Posted on 6/3/20 at 1:11 pm to zzgobucky
If these odds turn out to be votes, then we will have a new president next January.
Posted on 6/3/20 at 1:13 pm to Redleg Guy
On what planet is that heavy in biden’s Favor?
If LSU had a 53% chance to win a game, would you consider that a heavy favorite?
If LSU had a 53% chance to win a game, would you consider that a heavy favorite?
Posted on 6/3/20 at 1:18 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
Registration percentages.
Democrat 28%
Republican 26%
Guess what the rest are?
You better win the Independent vote. Right now ....in every major Democrat controlled city, they are hunkered down at night watching this play out and listening to their neighborhoods washed in sirens and flames .....
The population favors Military Boots on the ground by a score of 2 to 1
Bet there isn't a book that has that on a betting line.
Democrat 28%
Republican 26%
Guess what the rest are?
You better win the Independent vote. Right now ....in every major Democrat controlled city, they are hunkered down at night watching this play out and listening to their neighborhoods washed in sirens and flames .....
The population favors Military Boots on the ground by a score of 2 to 1
Bet there isn't a book that has that on a betting line.
This post was edited on 6/3/20 at 1:20 pm
Posted on 6/3/20 at 1:57 pm to tigeraddict
quote:
Arizona: D -120 R -120
Colorado: D -600 R +400
Florida: D +140 R -165
Georgia: D +180 R -260
Iowa: D +210 R -290
Michigan: D -165 R +120
Minnesota: D -320 R +240
New Hamp: D -230 R +170
North Car: D +115 R -155
Pennsylvania: D -155 R+115
Wisconsin: D -140 R +100
quote:PA, MI, and WI were clearly 3 of the most important states in the 2020 election since they were all surprises in the last election (had previously gone D), all had extremely slim margins (difference was less than 3rd party candidate votes), likely correlated with one another (given demographic, geographic, and economic similarities), had enough EC votes to flip the election either way, and were inexcusably ignored by the Clinton campaign.
Trump needs 2 of 4 of these to win
So given that Biden is viewed much more favorably (and is from PA) than Hillary by one of the major (traditionally D-leaning) groups in these states (unions; manufacturing) that Trump did better with than recent GOP candidates, with 3rd party candidates being less impactful (especially since Amash dropped out), and the Biden campaign being less likely to make the same inexcusable mistakes as the Clinton campaign, it makes sense that he would be favored a bit in these states (about 56% probability on average across 3).
That said, while Arizona appeared to be trending more blue due to demographic shifts (more hispanics/latinos, and they're getting older; plus retirees from blue states) and McSally doing so poorly in the Senate race, I am a bit surpised that 5Dimes as it as even odds and predictit even gives the Ds a higher probability (about 57%).
The polling data does have Biden at a bit of an advantage (+2.5), but given how limited it is (4 since mid-March), how crazy 2020 has been, and how quickly it changes (impeachment trial, pandemic, protests/riots nationally in just 5 or so months), polling data is probably a lot more variable than usual. Regardless, I'm just surprised that the betting markets are so bearish on Trump in AZ but not considerably more bearish than overall, despite winning AZ by 3.5 in 2016 while losing the overall popular vote by 2.1, outperforming by 5.6 points in AZ. So I would think that if he loses AZ, then he's likely losing MI, PA, and WI and a couple of the other closer states may flip.
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