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re: If RFKJ drops out of the race and endorses Trump, how much of his support moves to Trump?

Posted on 8/21/24 at 7:22 pm to
Posted by OMLandshark
Member since Apr 2009
119977 posts
Posted on 8/21/24 at 7:22 pm to
Oh what fricking balls that Kamala is the one who wants a solution at the border. This is like accusing Lizzo of being the one actually for being for better health over Jillian Michaels.
Posted by OMLandshark
Member since Apr 2009
119977 posts
Posted on 8/21/24 at 7:23 pm to
The bill gave a blank check to Ukraine and Israel, so frick off.
Posted by LSUSkip
Central, LA
Member since Jul 2012
24717 posts
Posted on 8/21/24 at 7:25 pm to
quote:

Most won’t vote. It might benefit Trump a tad. Many will go to Harris


A non-vote is a ballot filled out for Kamala. RFK should push that you don't have to vote for president, but at least get to the polls and vote for something. Use your ballot, because if you don't, it's going to get used and you have no say who for.
This post was edited on 8/21/24 at 7:27 pm
Posted by GumboPot
Member since Mar 2009
138911 posts
Posted on 8/21/24 at 7:27 pm to
quote:

1-2% which is huge in swing states.


156 million voted in the 2020 election. If we get that turnout 1-2% translates into 1.56 to 3.12 million extra votes for Trump.
Posted by aTmTexas Dillo
East Texas Lake
Member since Sep 2018
22441 posts
Posted on 8/21/24 at 7:29 pm to
quote:

The bill gave a blank check to Ukraine and Israel, so frick off.


That blank check is assured anyway. Get used to it. Target the real opposition unless you are a dem.

BTW, Ukraine is holding ground in Russia and sending Moscow drones. Little ole Ukraine
Posted by dgnx6
Member since Feb 2006
85641 posts
Posted on 8/21/24 at 7:36 pm to
I’ve seen posts saying I’m voting kamala now and others say they aren’t voting now.

So I really don’t know.
Posted by Stidham8
Member since Aug 2018
9428 posts
Posted on 8/21/24 at 7:36 pm to
Net advantage of 0.5-1% in the swing states which is enough to potentially swing a few his way.
Posted by PhillyTiger90
Member since Dec 2015
11628 posts
Posted on 8/21/24 at 7:51 pm to
Probably not much

His supporters specifically don’t want Trump or Kamala
Posted by da prophet
hammond, la
Member since Sep 2013
2926 posts
Posted on 8/21/24 at 8:08 pm to
quote:

RFK Jr. dropping out and endorsing Trump gives 0.5 to 1% advantage to Trump.

Probably about right, but that’s huge in a race like this.
Posted by Chrome
Chromeville
Member since Nov 2007
12608 posts
Posted on 8/21/24 at 8:11 pm to
Any independents on the fence will go to Trump.
Posted by Demonbengal
Ruston
Member since May 2015
4808 posts
Posted on 8/21/24 at 8:14 pm to
RFK has been dropping since Kamala got in the race. A lot of people who normally vote dem, but couldn’t support Biden have already flipped to Kamala. There is a chance in states where RFK is still close to 5% maybe trump gets 1.5% advantage.
Posted by TigerBaitOohHaHa
Member since Jan 2023
1768 posts
Posted on 8/21/24 at 8:41 pm to
after Kamala entered the race anyone left in the Kennedy camp were those hesitant Trump voters. The Bidens-Too-Old crowd immediately shifted back to Kamala. Kennedy's share is largely could vote for Trump types or won't show up at all..
Posted by matty3387
Metairie
Member since May 2018
1700 posts
Posted on 8/21/24 at 9:13 pm to
6 to 10% towards trump
Posted by retooc
Freeport, FL
Member since Sep 2012
7956 posts
Posted on 8/21/24 at 9:17 pm to
What percentage goes to Trump? 35

What percentage decides to not vote? 50

What percentage goes back to the Democrats? 15
This post was edited on 8/21/24 at 9:19 pm
Posted by Who_Dat_Tiger
Member since Nov 2015
24727 posts
Posted on 8/21/24 at 9:22 pm to
Having Kennedy’s endorsement is the only, sole endorsement in this whole election that would move the needle.

It really is the only meaningful one someone could get. A former rino coming out for kamala is meaningless (Paul Ryan Liz Cheney). Enough support moves to Trump that it improves his chances of winning. the majority of the 4-5% of the votes he’s getting currently would go to Trump when he gets his endorsement and gets a position meaning it is a net positive.

ETA I have the popcorn ready for Friday
This post was edited on 8/21/24 at 9:24 pm
Posted by Goforit
Member since Apr 2019
8666 posts
Posted on 8/21/24 at 10:03 pm to
I think the fact that Musk a moderate dem and RFK Jr the son of a dem Icon
would support Trump should cause undecided people to give him a closer look.
Posted by Cosmo
glassman's guest house
Member since Oct 2003
129145 posts
Posted on 8/21/24 at 10:05 pm to
quote:

Kennedy supporters on Twitter are pissed at the DNC.


So were bernie supporters

They all still bent over and voted for hilldog and biden
Posted by Wolfwireless
Member since Aug 2024
4783 posts
Posted on 8/21/24 at 10:22 pm to
Kennedy isn't the only independent on the ticket. There's two others (that I know of).
One is an absolute libtard campaigning as the 1st millennial running for pres. The other I haven't checked into.
Dunno how much that will change numbers, but it's factors to throw Into the mix.
Posted by GumboPot
Member since Mar 2009
138911 posts
Posted on 8/21/24 at 10:28 pm to
quote:

What percentage goes to Trump? 35

What percentage decides to not vote? 50

What percentage goes back to the Democrats? 15


That's about right. The net for Trump here is 0.8%.

The polls indicate that RFK Jr. is pulling 0.5 to 1% more from Trump than Kamala.
Posted by jmarto1
Houma, LA/ Las Vegas, NV
Member since Mar 2008
37891 posts
Posted on 8/21/24 at 10:49 pm to
He definitely will move some independent votes
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