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Message
Idlib Offensive
Posted on 5/13/19 at 11:25 am
Posted on 5/13/19 at 11:25 am
After a week of heavy bombing, 100s of sorties, the Syrian forces went on the offensive.
The timing may have something to do with the Mueller report, and it may have something to do with Trump and Putin’s phone call. The last offensive was cancelled due to US pressure. There’s been no reaction from Washington this go around.
Putin had declared that the time wasn’t right for an offensive, just days before the bombing started. That was probably misdirection. The Syrians were already massing forces at that point.
The Turks offered no protest in the first 24 hours. And there was no immediate reaction when the Syrians shelled one of their outpost in Idlib, wounding several soldiers.
Since that time, they have spoken out, insisting that the Syrians stop their attack. The jihadists they’ve sponsored in Idlib, have also joined with the AQ affiliate to mount a joint defense of Idlib. The Turks are also sending soldiers to reinforce their outposts.
The Syrians don’t appear to care. They dropped shells within meters or the same Turkish outpost yesterday, and Russian aircraft followed up, dropping bombs on jihadists in very close proximity.
The Syrians will envelop that Turkish position in the next 24 hours.
Before the offensive, rebels controlled a stretch of Northern Hama. That area is open plain, running north into Idlib, and is conducive to offense operations. The Syrians are moving quickly there. Footage shows rebel lines, crackling, as shells fall up and down the line. Flashes of light and huge plumes of smoke.
Idlib is very mountainous, and it will be harder there. A simultaneous push into Western Idlib from Latakia has produced limited gains, where they’re fighting straight up mountain sides.
This raises a question, will they go all out? Will they try and recapture the whole province? It looks like they’re trying.
It’s difficult to get good information. Western reports are useless. They’re written by people who don’t speak the language, aren’t on the ground, and have never even been there. They largely consist of telephone interviews with rebel forces, NGOs, and the stray UN official. Statements by each are passed off without comment.
The best sources are Twitter, of all things, and pro government (amateur) media.
The timing may have something to do with the Mueller report, and it may have something to do with Trump and Putin’s phone call. The last offensive was cancelled due to US pressure. There’s been no reaction from Washington this go around.
Putin had declared that the time wasn’t right for an offensive, just days before the bombing started. That was probably misdirection. The Syrians were already massing forces at that point.
The Turks offered no protest in the first 24 hours. And there was no immediate reaction when the Syrians shelled one of their outpost in Idlib, wounding several soldiers.
Since that time, they have spoken out, insisting that the Syrians stop their attack. The jihadists they’ve sponsored in Idlib, have also joined with the AQ affiliate to mount a joint defense of Idlib. The Turks are also sending soldiers to reinforce their outposts.
The Syrians don’t appear to care. They dropped shells within meters or the same Turkish outpost yesterday, and Russian aircraft followed up, dropping bombs on jihadists in very close proximity.
The Syrians will envelop that Turkish position in the next 24 hours.
Before the offensive, rebels controlled a stretch of Northern Hama. That area is open plain, running north into Idlib, and is conducive to offense operations. The Syrians are moving quickly there. Footage shows rebel lines, crackling, as shells fall up and down the line. Flashes of light and huge plumes of smoke.
Idlib is very mountainous, and it will be harder there. A simultaneous push into Western Idlib from Latakia has produced limited gains, where they’re fighting straight up mountain sides.
This raises a question, will they go all out? Will they try and recapture the whole province? It looks like they’re trying.
It’s difficult to get good information. Western reports are useless. They’re written by people who don’t speak the language, aren’t on the ground, and have never even been there. They largely consist of telephone interviews with rebel forces, NGOs, and the stray UN official. Statements by each are passed off without comment.
The best sources are Twitter, of all things, and pro government (amateur) media.
This post was edited on 5/13/19 at 11:49 am
7
Posted on 5/13/19 at 11:26 am to Lima Whiskey
Thks, keep us posted.
Posted on 5/13/19 at 11:36 am to Navytiger74
quote:
Navytiger74
Good to see you aren't in jail
Welcome back
Posted on 5/13/19 at 11:37 am to Navytiger74
PedoTiger74 starting the charm offensive immediately I see.
Looking forward to a seemingly endless stream of embarrassingly wrong Democratic Party conventional wisdom.
We can never have enough effete Vespa-driving, chai-drinking, Obama-lite Democratic Party hacks.
I will drink your route 44 Diet Cherry Lime Aid at the Sonic of your choice, bitch.
Welcome back.
Looking forward to a seemingly endless stream of embarrassingly wrong Democratic Party conventional wisdom.
We can never have enough effete Vespa-driving, chai-drinking, Obama-lite Democratic Party hacks.
I will drink your route 44 Diet Cherry Lime Aid at the Sonic of your choice, bitch.
Welcome back.
Posted on 5/13/19 at 11:38 am to idlewatcher
quote:I gave out a rare upvote. I just want to be kept posted.
Good to see you aren't in jail Welcome back
Posted on 5/13/19 at 11:40 am to Navytiger74
quote:
just want to be kept posted.
Pizza party code?
Posted on 5/13/19 at 11:44 am to Lima Whiskey
Posted on 5/13/19 at 11:48 am to roadGator
quote:
Pizza party code?
It's just great how they can eat so much and not get fat.
Our wives on the other hand...
ETA: If the thread is derailed, it's on your head.
This post was edited on 5/13/19 at 11:49 am
Posted on 5/13/19 at 11:48 am to Lsupimp
Posted on 5/13/19 at 11:54 am to Navytiger74
So you have a wife now? Has Mr Larson seen that you have returned?
Posted on 5/13/19 at 11:55 am to cajunangelle
I hope those boys have a happy marriage.
Posted on 5/13/19 at 11:57 am to roadGator
me too.
Posted on 5/13/19 at 11:59 am to Navytiger74
Those girls look at least 10 years too old for you
Posted on 5/18/19 at 11:09 am to Lima Whiskey
- Sputnik reports that a 72 hour ceasefire has been agreed to.
- The Turks have sent additional forces to Idlib, deploying within 2kms of the Syrians.
- They’ve also pulled their Syrian auxiliaries from the Kurdish front, and sent them to Idlib to block further Syrian advances.
- Fighting continues in Latakia around the mountain town or Kabani. Militants use the high ground there to launch rockets at Hmeimim, the largest Russian base in country.
Iran enjoys close ties to Turkey. Iran, purportedly, provided specific intelligence to Ankara during the suspicious coup attempt. And Turkey buys Iranian oil and helps Tehran evade sanctions. They also share the same view on Kurds.
Russia has strong economic and cultural ties to Turkey. It’s a major tourist destination and their sixth biggest trade partner. They’re also trying to peal Turkey out of NATO for security reasons.
The Syrians, apparently, view the Turks as a useful tool to use against the Kurds. They believe the Turkish threat will bring the Kurds back.
That may be true, but that strikes me as foolish. They lost Hatay to the Turks in a 1939, in a plebiscite marked by extensive Turkish organized voter fraud.
The Turks are building a wall to separate Afrin from the rest of Syria, and as they have in Idlib, they moved settlers into the province, and opened Turkish schools. They do not plan on leaving either province.
- The Turks have sent additional forces to Idlib, deploying within 2kms of the Syrians.
- They’ve also pulled their Syrian auxiliaries from the Kurdish front, and sent them to Idlib to block further Syrian advances.
- Fighting continues in Latakia around the mountain town or Kabani. Militants use the high ground there to launch rockets at Hmeimim, the largest Russian base in country.
Iran enjoys close ties to Turkey. Iran, purportedly, provided specific intelligence to Ankara during the suspicious coup attempt. And Turkey buys Iranian oil and helps Tehran evade sanctions. They also share the same view on Kurds.
Russia has strong economic and cultural ties to Turkey. It’s a major tourist destination and their sixth biggest trade partner. They’re also trying to peal Turkey out of NATO for security reasons.
The Syrians, apparently, view the Turks as a useful tool to use against the Kurds. They believe the Turkish threat will bring the Kurds back.
That may be true, but that strikes me as foolish. They lost Hatay to the Turks in a 1939, in a plebiscite marked by extensive Turkish organized voter fraud.
The Turks are building a wall to separate Afrin from the rest of Syria, and as they have in Idlib, they moved settlers into the province, and opened Turkish schools. They do not plan on leaving either province.
Posted on 5/18/19 at 11:13 am to Lima Whiskey
Erdogan's Turkey needs to be expelled from NATO. Or better yet we should walk away.
Posted on 5/22/19 at 11:40 am to Lima Whiskey
Fighting continues.
The Al Ghab plain is shaped like a finger, running north into Idlib, and bound on either side by low mountains. It was a marsh once, but the government dammed the waters in the 60s, and drained it, creating fresh farm land.
It's an island of green, in an often arid country.
To push north, the Syrians need to clear the high ground overlooking the valley, specifically, the town of Kabani in the western mountains. They have made several assaults over the last few days, backed by artillery and air strikes, but they have not breached the militants defensive lines. Progress has been easier in Al Ghab, where the terrain is more forgiving, and the Syrians can leverage their substantial advantages in firepower.
ANNA, an Abkhazian news agency, released this combat footage (subtitles in English) showing the "Tiger Forces" clearing the valley.
LINK
Due to Security Council pressure, the Syrian/Russian forces declared a 72 hour ceasefire. This gave the rebels the breathing room they needed to recover, and launch their own counter offensive. Government forces have lost ground in the town of Kafr Nabudah, but the rebels are unlikely to hold it. The Syrian forces are much heavier than they are.
The ceasefire was an unfortunate sign of the political reality. The Jihadists are still "our boys" and we will do our best to protect them.
I don't know how these people sleep at night.
The Syrians ultimate goal is the city of Jisr al-Shughur, a city of 40k, that sits at the top of the valley.
The Al Ghab plain is shaped like a finger, running north into Idlib, and bound on either side by low mountains. It was a marsh once, but the government dammed the waters in the 60s, and drained it, creating fresh farm land.
It's an island of green, in an often arid country.
To push north, the Syrians need to clear the high ground overlooking the valley, specifically, the town of Kabani in the western mountains. They have made several assaults over the last few days, backed by artillery and air strikes, but they have not breached the militants defensive lines. Progress has been easier in Al Ghab, where the terrain is more forgiving, and the Syrians can leverage their substantial advantages in firepower.
ANNA, an Abkhazian news agency, released this combat footage (subtitles in English) showing the "Tiger Forces" clearing the valley.
LINK
Due to Security Council pressure, the Syrian/Russian forces declared a 72 hour ceasefire. This gave the rebels the breathing room they needed to recover, and launch their own counter offensive. Government forces have lost ground in the town of Kafr Nabudah, but the rebels are unlikely to hold it. The Syrian forces are much heavier than they are.
The ceasefire was an unfortunate sign of the political reality. The Jihadists are still "our boys" and we will do our best to protect them.
I don't know how these people sleep at night.
The Syrians ultimate goal is the city of Jisr al-Shughur, a city of 40k, that sits at the top of the valley.
Posted on 6/19/19 at 12:31 pm to Lima Whiskey
More than a month of heavy fighting has resulted in large engagements, big casualty figures, but limited territorial gains for the Syrians.
These have been some of the largest engagements of the war. Battalion sized elements backed by half a dozen armored vehicles (on the rebel side at least, the SAA is much heavier) squaring off.
The rebels are much lighter, and lack any air support, but the Turks have kept them supplied with ATGMs and artillery rockets. They’ve also given them APCs.
The biggest impediments to the Syrian offensive are political. The Russians want a return of the status quo ante bellum.
But they also want to peal Turkey away for the west, and to get the Turks out of NATO.
They also view the Turks as a useful lever to use against us, and the Kurds, in northern Syria.
As a result of these competing interests, they’ve instituted repeated, one sided, ceasefires to appease the Turks.
These are about as self defeating as they sound, because they’ve occurred whenever the Syrian coalition has made real gains, and they’ve given the rebels a critical opportunity to reinforce, and to resupply, squandering any offensive momentum.
This policy appears to have embolden the Turks. They’ve increased their material support for the rebels, they’ve reinforced their outposts in Idlib, and they’ve started to shell the Syrian forces.
The rebels have suffered more than a thousand casualties in the fighting though, and those are big losses for them. Syrian figures are up for debate, but given how they retreat when overmatched, they are undoubtedly lower. They are very good about preserving manpower.
Assuming the fighting continues, the Syrians have been reinforcing their lines, and air strikes resumed in Idlib this morning, the rebels may still find themselves in trouble.
These have been some of the largest engagements of the war. Battalion sized elements backed by half a dozen armored vehicles (on the rebel side at least, the SAA is much heavier) squaring off.
The rebels are much lighter, and lack any air support, but the Turks have kept them supplied with ATGMs and artillery rockets. They’ve also given them APCs.
The biggest impediments to the Syrian offensive are political. The Russians want a return of the status quo ante bellum.
But they also want to peal Turkey away for the west, and to get the Turks out of NATO.
They also view the Turks as a useful lever to use against us, and the Kurds, in northern Syria.
As a result of these competing interests, they’ve instituted repeated, one sided, ceasefires to appease the Turks.
These are about as self defeating as they sound, because they’ve occurred whenever the Syrian coalition has made real gains, and they’ve given the rebels a critical opportunity to reinforce, and to resupply, squandering any offensive momentum.
This policy appears to have embolden the Turks. They’ve increased their material support for the rebels, they’ve reinforced their outposts in Idlib, and they’ve started to shell the Syrian forces.
The rebels have suffered more than a thousand casualties in the fighting though, and those are big losses for them. Syrian figures are up for debate, but given how they retreat when overmatched, they are undoubtedly lower. They are very good about preserving manpower.
Assuming the fighting continues, the Syrians have been reinforcing their lines, and air strikes resumed in Idlib this morning, the rebels may still find themselves in trouble.
Posted on 8/18/19 at 10:36 pm to Lima Whiskey
The summer was less interesting than expected.
The Syrians would make small gains, whereupon they would announce a ceasefire, the rebels would take two or three days to reequip, and then the rebels would attack.
Immediately erasing any government gains.
And so it turned into three months of attrition, with small shifts in the front lines. The Syrians would take a town, then the rebels would take it back.
The ceasefires were probably dictated by the Russians. Moscow is juggling multiple interests here.
Moscow says, and they probably do, that they want to keep Syria intact. And they certainly want to defeat the jihadists. But they also want to pull Turkey out of NATO. Which is why they were willing to sell Turkey the S-400, and why they were willing to make substantial technology concessions to Turkey.
I assume the ceasefires were a way to appease Turkey, while they worked out the delivery of the S-400. But there were also complaints about the performance of the Syrians in Idlib. It also explains why the Russians avoided bombing targets in central Idlib. Focusing on units near the ceasefire line, a sop to the Turks. With the delivery of the S-400, and the rupture of US-Turkish relations, the Russians have gotten aggressive again.
First, there were interesting reports of ambushes behind rebels lines, where the rebels sustained heavy casualties.
Then the Russians stepped up their bombardment of Idlib, hitting targets deep in rebel territory, everything from supply depots, to command and control facilities.
They also hit every White Helmet outpost they could find.
The Syrians broke through rebels lines at two points in Southern Idlib, and Northern Hama. This created a small pocket, which they've since tried to close, trapping rebel forces in Khan Sheikun, Kafr Zita, Morek, and Lataminah. At this juncture, the only retreat for the rebels is north, up the M5, but the Syrians control the high ground on either side.
It's worth noting that there's a Turkish outpost inside the Khan Skeikun pocket.
The Syrians would make small gains, whereupon they would announce a ceasefire, the rebels would take two or three days to reequip, and then the rebels would attack.
Immediately erasing any government gains.
And so it turned into three months of attrition, with small shifts in the front lines. The Syrians would take a town, then the rebels would take it back.
The ceasefires were probably dictated by the Russians. Moscow is juggling multiple interests here.
Moscow says, and they probably do, that they want to keep Syria intact. And they certainly want to defeat the jihadists. But they also want to pull Turkey out of NATO. Which is why they were willing to sell Turkey the S-400, and why they were willing to make substantial technology concessions to Turkey.
I assume the ceasefires were a way to appease Turkey, while they worked out the delivery of the S-400. But there were also complaints about the performance of the Syrians in Idlib. It also explains why the Russians avoided bombing targets in central Idlib. Focusing on units near the ceasefire line, a sop to the Turks. With the delivery of the S-400, and the rupture of US-Turkish relations, the Russians have gotten aggressive again.
First, there were interesting reports of ambushes behind rebels lines, where the rebels sustained heavy casualties.
Then the Russians stepped up their bombardment of Idlib, hitting targets deep in rebel territory, everything from supply depots, to command and control facilities.
They also hit every White Helmet outpost they could find.
The Syrians broke through rebels lines at two points in Southern Idlib, and Northern Hama. This created a small pocket, which they've since tried to close, trapping rebel forces in Khan Sheikun, Kafr Zita, Morek, and Lataminah. At this juncture, the only retreat for the rebels is north, up the M5, but the Syrians control the high ground on either side.
It's worth noting that there's a Turkish outpost inside the Khan Skeikun pocket.
Posted on 8/18/19 at 10:39 pm to Lima Whiskey
Thanks for the updates. I like to keep somewhat informed WRT to this war.
Posted on 8/19/19 at 12:24 am to Lima Whiskey
Good insight and information. It's appreciated
I've been trying to stay up to speed on happenings in Syria, because my godson (ARMY Infantryman) is about to be deployed there for 9 months starting next month.
Again, thanks for the info. I'm very personally worried about these events in the ME.
I've been trying to stay up to speed on happenings in Syria, because my godson (ARMY Infantryman) is about to be deployed there for 9 months starting next month.
Again, thanks for the info. I'm very personally worried about these events in the ME.
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