re: Idlib Offensive

I expect the Syrians will wrap up Idlib at this point. The rebels in in Idlib are too worn down. But the Turkish situation is complicated.

The Erdogan is a neo Ottoman and would like to annex northern Syria, if possible. The Turks rigged a referendum in Hatay in 39 and took it from Syria. So there's a precedent here. They won't be able to keep Idlib, but they will try and hold onto to Afrin. They've built schools and sent in Turkish administrators. They're preparing for the long haul.

The bigger issue is the Kurdish zone though. Erdogan mobilized the army and their jihadist auxiliaries, and threatened to invade, and we straight up folded, agreeing to a joint occupation of northern Syria.

I don't see how the Kurds accept that.

There was some news last week of Arab towns around Raqqa reconciling with Damascus. That could become a problem for us.