How much of a concern is it that Texas will turn Blue?

Very concerned because we know the Dems are getting away with voter fraud.

Don't think it happens this cycle. But it could happen 2024 depending on the candidates.

2028-2032

quote:

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How much of a concern is it that Texas will turn Blue?

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This year? None

In 5-10 years? A big one

In 2020 the answer is zero


The next 20 years or so it probably will happen though

In spite of decades of voter suppression and gerrymandering, the rule of law will eventually turn Texas blue, unless of course the trumplicans pull off that coup they are planning.

Just copying & pasting from my previous posts:

A large portion of the Hispanic population in Texas aren’t eligible to vote. Of those who are eligible, the Hispanic vote has a notoriously abysmal turnout rate for elections while non-Hispanic voters have high turnout. On top of all that Texas Hispanic immigrants have the highest home ownership rates in the country with a median income much higher than Hispanic immigrants in NM (for example). First generation Hispanics tend to vote overwhelmingly blue but 2nd & 3rd generations begins moving more republican.

So while the demographics are surely changing, it hasn’t had any meaningful impact on Texas elections.

For example, “the share of the electorate with a Spanish surname [in Texas] increased from 17.2 percent in 2012 to 19.4 percent in 2016. Latinos make up 38 percent of the Texas population, but historically vote at lower rates than Latinos in other states and other groups in Texas.“

This is the reason people saying that Texas will turn blue are wrong. Latinos make up 38% of Texas population but, in their highest turnout year (2016), only 19.4% of the Latino population actually voted. LINK

“ Some 28% of Texas eligible voters are Hispanic, the second largest Hispanic statewide eligible voter share nationally. New Mexico ranks first with 40%.”

“Some 46% of Hispanics in Texas are eligible to vote, ranking Texas 23rd nationwide in the share of the Hispanic population that is eligible to vote. By contrast, 79% of the state’s white population is eligible to vote.“

So, while the number of Hispanics in TX continue to rise, less than 1/2 of them are eligible to vote. Also, Hispanics who are eligible to vote in Texas have a larger % who own their homes than the rest of the eligible Hispanic voters nationwide combined.
Pew Research

“Among Hispanics, Biden has a 47.4% to 37.9% advantage, but 13.2% remain undecided.“

“ Naturalized and first-generation Hispanics favored Biden by wider marks, but those whose families had been in the country two or more generations favored the Democrat by a narrow margin of 45% to 44.6%.”
Dallas Morning News

This is likely largely influenced by the success and high home ownership of 2nd+ generation Hispanics in Texas.

It's way more on Cali whites, college students, and suburban losers turning Texas blue than it is on Mexicans.

zero this year

probably gonna happen eventually