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How much longer before China says "F it" we're taking Taiwan now.
Posted on 4/7/25 at 2:56 pm
Posted on 4/7/25 at 2:56 pm
It would be the ultimate trade war/tariff fight Trump card.
14
Posted on 4/7/25 at 2:57 pm to sidewalkside
The we won't make iPhones there anymore.
Posted on 4/7/25 at 3:00 pm to sidewalkside
The answer is about the same as it was 6 months ago, 12 months ago, 4 years ago, 8 years ago, et cetera.
They don't have anywhere near the combined arms capability, the naval proficiency, nor the amphibious faculties to take Taiwan without turning it into a complete pile of rubble first via nuclear weapons, which would defeat the purpose of taking it in the first place.
They have been and will continue to be more subtle about it - internal subterfuge, closer economic ties, etc. until one day they find themselves in complete political and economic control of the island.
They don't have anywhere near the combined arms capability, the naval proficiency, nor the amphibious faculties to take Taiwan without turning it into a complete pile of rubble first via nuclear weapons, which would defeat the purpose of taking it in the first place.
They have been and will continue to be more subtle about it - internal subterfuge, closer economic ties, etc. until one day they find themselves in complete political and economic control of the island.
This post was edited on 4/7/25 at 3:02 pm
Posted on 4/7/25 at 3:00 pm to sidewalkside
I honestly thought they'd move on Taiwan before the election, last year.
Posted on 4/7/25 at 3:01 pm to aTmTexas Dillo
OP sounds very concerned. Very VERY concerned.
Posted on 4/7/25 at 3:03 pm to VoxDawg
quote:
I honestly thought they'd move on Taiwan before the election, last year.
They will be slinky about it just as Abu wrote in the post above yours.
Posted on 4/7/25 at 3:03 pm to sidewalkside
Taking Tawain wouldn't be as easy as some think.
I feel confident in saying that if China didn't attempt it with brain dead Biden as POTUS, they damn sure won't with Trump as POTUS. IMHO
I feel confident in saying that if China didn't attempt it with brain dead Biden as POTUS, they damn sure won't with Trump as POTUS. IMHO
Posted on 4/7/25 at 3:08 pm to sidewalkside
They just used their Rare Earths Play that they’ve been building for almost 30 years.
It was generally assumed to be something they were saving for such a conflict over Taiwan.
I would say one of two cases is likely.
1) China invades Taiwan soon now that they have effectively cut us out of some things required for our advanced tech. We dont make much low-tech items anymore. And really any conflict with China turns into a product war of missiles. All war games, our supply is depleted in 36-48 hours. From there we’re limited to our production rate.
2)The tariff move forced China’s hand to deploy their Rare Earth trade leverage earlier than they likely wanted to. This whole thing jams up the works a bit and delays the invasion. I dont think their original calculus was to be in a trade war before starting the hot war.
This is for a number of reasons. But you have to understand that China has been studying and preparing for our economic sanctions should they invade. Both sides know China depends on us as an importer of our agricultural items. Animal feed as well as food for their people. They don’t have a way to completely eliminate their need for our food… so then it becomes a series of planning exercises. Storing emergency supplies of key ag items. They’ve been planning around taking taiwan in as short of a timespan as possible. With the goal of just having to deal with us sanctions long enough to secure the territory, end armed conflict with their goals accomplished, and then force international forums for peace. Knowing that no ome is actually going to try and counter-invade Taiwan to liberate it.
It was generally assumed to be something they were saving for such a conflict over Taiwan.
I would say one of two cases is likely.
1) China invades Taiwan soon now that they have effectively cut us out of some things required for our advanced tech. We dont make much low-tech items anymore. And really any conflict with China turns into a product war of missiles. All war games, our supply is depleted in 36-48 hours. From there we’re limited to our production rate.
2)The tariff move forced China’s hand to deploy their Rare Earth trade leverage earlier than they likely wanted to. This whole thing jams up the works a bit and delays the invasion. I dont think their original calculus was to be in a trade war before starting the hot war.
This is for a number of reasons. But you have to understand that China has been studying and preparing for our economic sanctions should they invade. Both sides know China depends on us as an importer of our agricultural items. Animal feed as well as food for their people. They don’t have a way to completely eliminate their need for our food… so then it becomes a series of planning exercises. Storing emergency supplies of key ag items. They’ve been planning around taking taiwan in as short of a timespan as possible. With the goal of just having to deal with us sanctions long enough to secure the territory, end armed conflict with their goals accomplished, and then force international forums for peace. Knowing that no ome is actually going to try and counter-invade Taiwan to liberate it.
Posted on 4/7/25 at 3:09 pm to lake chuck fan
quote:
I feel confident in saying that if China didn't attempt it with brain dead Biden as POTUS, they damn sure won't with Trump as POTUS. IMHO
That's a fair assessment. Putin moved on Crimea when Black*ish Jesus was in the WH, pushed Pause during Trump 45, then rolled into Ukraine proper when Potato Head was installed.
Posted on 4/7/25 at 3:09 pm to sidewalkside
China doesn't currently have the capabilities to take Taiwan without it ruining their military's perceived strength. It would be a Russia/Ukraine situation for them which they most likely want to avoid.
Posted on 4/7/25 at 3:12 pm to LSUnation78
I don't think they can get air superiority which they would kinda need before launching an invasion like that.
And soon they will be an aging demographic and upside down. I think their goal for taking Taiwan is a soft coup where they pay for influence and then politically take it over.
Combined with saber rattling.
And soon they will be an aging demographic and upside down. I think their goal for taking Taiwan is a soft coup where they pay for influence and then politically take it over.
Combined with saber rattling.
Posted on 4/7/25 at 3:19 pm to thetempleowl
I generally agree. But most strategists saw the Rare Earths monopoly they’ve been going for as critical piece to any hot war planning over retaking of taiwan.
Which leads to my take above. Either this being played now is the opening salvo in that war gaming… or more likely, China isn’t ready for the hot war, now has a trade war to deal with. And is pulling it out now for the trade war and essentially gives up hopes for an armed take over of the island.
Once US gets the rare earth refining going along with all of the related supply chain, this critical advantage evaporates. They needed to cut us off at the knees on missile production. Whoch does in fact depend on Rare Earths. If they had crippled our limited missile production capacity, then they absolutely could achieve air superiority. They make way more rockets and missiles than we do and our stores aren’t exactly full atm. This part was pivotal to them achieving any semblance of control over the air space.
Which leads to my take above. Either this being played now is the opening salvo in that war gaming… or more likely, China isn’t ready for the hot war, now has a trade war to deal with. And is pulling it out now for the trade war and essentially gives up hopes for an armed take over of the island.
Once US gets the rare earth refining going along with all of the related supply chain, this critical advantage evaporates. They needed to cut us off at the knees on missile production. Whoch does in fact depend on Rare Earths. If they had crippled our limited missile production capacity, then they absolutely could achieve air superiority. They make way more rockets and missiles than we do and our stores aren’t exactly full atm. This part was pivotal to them achieving any semblance of control over the air space.
Posted on 4/7/25 at 3:20 pm to sidewalkside
quote:
China says "F it" we're taking Taiwan now.
They aren't going to even come close to considering this... especially with Trump in office...
Posted on 4/7/25 at 3:21 pm to VoxDawg
quote:
I honestly thought they'd move on Taiwan before the election, last year.
they dont have the ability to do so. Yall way over estimate china and underestimate Taiwan's ability to defend and make china hurt like a MFer
Posted on 4/7/25 at 3:26 pm to lake chuck fan
quote:
I feel confident in saying that if China didn't attempt it with brain dead Biden as POTUS, they damn sure won't with Trump as POTUS. IMHO
Agreed. He'll just wait til The Dems are able to fool the people and get another zombie in the oval office. He'll have to wait a while fortunately.
Posted on 4/7/25 at 3:28 pm to sidewalkside
In a cockblocking move, Trump shoiuld take Taiwan and make them our 51st state.
Posted on 4/7/25 at 3:34 pm to sidewalkside
quote:IMO there is a far greater chance of Xi being ousted during Trump's term than there is of China invading the residual Republic of China aka Taiwan.
How much longer before China says "F it" we're taking Taiwan now.
Posted on 4/7/25 at 3:34 pm to AbuTheMonkey
quote:
The answer is about the same as it was 6 months ago, 12 months ago, 4 years ago, 8 years ago, et cetera.
They don't have anywhere near the combined arms capability, the naval proficiency, nor the amphibious faculties to take Taiwan without turning it into a complete pile of rubble first via nuclear weapons, which would defeat the purpose of taking it in the first place.
They have been and will continue to be more subtle about it - internal subterfuge, closer economic ties, etc. until one day they find themselves in complete political and economic control of the island.
Right. The bigger threat is an inability to make a grand bargain with Taiwan and the Taiwanese decide to reintegrate with China. Taiwan's leadership would really prefer to not do the latter so I'm betting on the grand bargain soon.
However, I've heard military smart guys think China is probably a decade out from being able to do the amphibious landing invasion. Likely would not want to do it regardless because it is one of those World War III risk factors if they still have a deeply integrated economy with the West.
Posted on 4/7/25 at 3:51 pm to sidewalkside
quote:
How much longer before China says "F it" we're taking Taiwan now.
When you flip back to hetero.
Posted on 4/7/25 at 3:53 pm to Diego Ricardo
quote:
However, I've heard military smart guys think China is probably a decade out from being able to do the amphibious landing invasion. Likely would not want to do it regardless because it is one of those World War III risk factors if they still have a deeply integrated economy with the West.
They're likely at least that. They haven't been in a hot war in 45 years; just the operational and logistics learning curve alone would be extremely steep, very quickly.
And they would be telegraphing it from a mile away - a build up of that stature would be caught months and months in advance. Russia started its build up against Ukraine - which didn't have anywhere near the combined arms capability nor strategic defensive position that Taiwan has, nor a largely flat, open, easily traversable border - 5+ months before the invasion with strategic exercises taking place a year in advance.
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