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Home prices up 30% because of Biden era illegal immigration
Posted on 7/5/26 at 10:05 pm
Posted on 7/5/26 at 10:05 pm
Young people voted for Biden(not that he won legitimately), in hopes of not having to pay all their student debt.
And now for that cost, none can likely afford a house for several extra years.
LINK
And now for that cost, none can likely afford a house for several extra years.
quote:
The paper, published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, combines immigration court records with government administrative data to measure how the unprecedented wave of illegal immigration between 2021 and 2024 affected local labor and housing markets.
A 1% increase in unauthorized workers relative to a local labor force corresponded with roughly a 1% increase in overall employment, with no evidence the immigration surge reduced average wages. The same 1% increase, however, was associated with a roughly 2.2% rise in home prices and a 1.4% increase in rents. Researchers found little evidence that homebuilding expanded enough to meet the added demand, concluding the influx acted as a housing demand shock in markets where supply was already constrained.
The economists estimate unauthorized immigrant worker flows accounted for about 30% of employment growth, roughly 30% of home-price growth, and about 20% of rent growth in the average metropolitan area between March 2021 and March 2024.
LINK
This post was edited on 7/5/26 at 10:49 pm
9
Posted on 7/5/26 at 10:08 pm to Padme
This has been obvious from the start. Happening in the UK too.
Posted on 7/5/26 at 10:17 pm to Padme
quote:
Home prices up 30%
That's not what the report says
Posted on 7/5/26 at 10:28 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
That's not what the report says
Correct. It says 30% of increases, but the point is still valid. 20 million illegals pushed housing costs higher than they should have been. This is logical and should have been obvious, and should have been understood while voting for the people that made it happen.
This post was edited on 7/5/26 at 10:29 pm
Posted on 7/5/26 at 10:30 pm to David_DJS
There was a small impact, which may have been dissipated prior to Trump's 2nd term.
The real reason was the lowering of rates and trillions printed in 2020 and 2021. That's why you saw pricing get more normalized after rate cuts in 2023. It was the combination of more money (Big-I, inflation) and cheaper money (which causes assets in the class to experience small-I, inflation)
Without those terrible policies from Trump and Biden we probably don't even notice the impact of the illegals on the market. Hell, the demand may have been welcome by many to prevent the RE crash we've needed since 2009.
The real reason was the lowering of rates and trillions printed in 2020 and 2021. That's why you saw pricing get more normalized after rate cuts in 2023. It was the combination of more money (Big-I, inflation) and cheaper money (which causes assets in the class to experience small-I, inflation)
Without those terrible policies from Trump and Biden we probably don't even notice the impact of the illegals on the market. Hell, the demand may have been welcome by many to prevent the RE crash we've needed since 2009.
This post was edited on 7/5/26 at 10:31 pm
Posted on 7/5/26 at 10:46 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
Without those terrible policies from Trump and Biden we probably don't even notice the impact of the illegals on the market
With 25mm or more illegals I'm pretty sure we would notice. Accounting for 30% of home price inflation is significant.
Posted on 7/5/26 at 10:49 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
There was a small impact, which may have been dissipated prior to Trump's 2nd term.
quote:
Without those terrible policies from Trump and Biden we probably don't even notice the impact of the illegals on the market.
quote:
Hell, the demand may have been welcome by many to prevent the RE crash we've needed since 2009.
That’s f’n brilliant-
Posted on 7/5/26 at 10:52 pm to bigjoe1
Well I no doubt anybody so far and the story has read the paper, but I read a chunk of it tonight already because this is like the fourth time this has been posted already. This is not an academic study and they even use the term" envelope math" to describe how they came to the 30% number. This is not rigorous academic work
Posted on 7/5/26 at 10:55 pm to David_DJS
quote:
That’s f’n brilliant
?
Trump in admin 2 keeps floating bullshite policies to artificially prop up prices like the 50-year mortgage, and he's had a multi-year meltdown at Powell because Powell wouldn't lower rates.
It's not a shocking theory that in a scenario of actual, significant home value deflation there would be a push for similar bullshite policies to prop up the values/prices.
This post was edited on 7/5/26 at 10:59 pm
Posted on 7/5/26 at 11:08 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
Trump in admin 2 keeps floating bullshite policies to artificially prop up prices
Fair. But hundreds of thousands of Indians abusing H1B/F1 and other visas have an impact on prices, too. 6.9M LCA filings in the last ten years, and that's close to 5M homes occupied (envelope math, accounting for most of them being multi gen households.)
An engineering university, Purdue, can't find someone to teach engineering that is citizen, but must hire an H1B. Repeat across university after university. They're making their own graduates unemployable.
Posted on 7/5/26 at 11:10 pm to LemmyLives
quote:
But hundreds of thousands of Indians abusing H1B/F1 and other visas have an impact on prices, too
Sure, which makes my point stronger because Trump is still floating policies to artificially inflate the prices of homes on top of this and whatever impact the illegals remaining have.
Imagine what he would be doing if we had to face actual market-based pricing and the decrease that would follow.
They would be begging for this demand from immigrants, legal or otherwise
Posted on 7/5/26 at 11:27 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
Imagine what he would be doing if we had to face actual market-based pricing and the decrease that would follow.
Saw a FB post of someone looking to get a lease taken over in Brookshire, TX for $1800 a month for a 2/2. WTF? That's 40 minutes, not during rush hour, from Houston. During rush hour, that's 90m.
The market has many actors, and many of them should not be here permanently. I would love the Texas assessment districts to get destroyed. In Houston during the last oil crash (2018?) during hundreds of thousands of layoffs, the district came after all most all of us for the state max in assessment increases.
Posted on 7/5/26 at 11:36 pm to Padme
30% of home price growth. That means if home prices grew by 25% then illegal immigration contributed to 7.5% of overall growth.
Posted on 7/5/26 at 11:37 pm to Padme
quote:
The economists estimate unauthorized immigrant worker flows accounted for about 30% of employment growth, roughly 30% of home-price growth
If housing costs went up 40% over this time, illegal migration caused a 12% increase in housing costs. That’s still high, but it’s not 30%. You should update the OP title.
“30% of housing costs increases from illegal immigration” or something like that.
This post was edited on 7/5/26 at 11:39 pm
Posted on 7/6/26 at 12:34 am to Padme
I saw something about Ellis Island when they panned by it this weekend saying 12 million people came through there in its entire history.
Biden let in WAY more than that in FOUR YEARS.
Biden let in WAY more than that in FOUR YEARS.
Posted on 7/6/26 at 1:50 am to SlowFlowPro
Average home prices have increased 45% to 55 % and in fact illegal immigration has caused 30% of that growth. So they are in fact correct as was their math.
This post was edited on 7/6/26 at 1:54 am
Posted on 7/6/26 at 4:16 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
That's not what the report says
quote:Rather than nit pick about what the report does not say, why not focus on what it does say? Because what it does say is surprising.
These inflows also raised local house prices and rents without expanding housing supply, consistent with a housing demand shock in the face of short-run inelastic supply. ... A back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests that UIWF can explain about 30% of the total growth in house prices and 20% of total growth in rents over the boom period for the average local market.
LINK
30% of the skyrocketing home prices during the Biden years were d/t illegal immigration alone.
You don't find that stunning?
I certainly do.
Posted on 7/6/26 at 4:33 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:Now, that is not what the report says.
There was a small impact, which may have been dissipated prior to Trump's 2nd term.
Home prices jumped ~24% during the period the Dallas Fed is examining (March 2021 to March 2024). 30% of that delta equates to an 8% overall increase in housing prices, 8% is not "a small impact."
Posted on 7/6/26 at 5:43 am to NC_Tigah
quote:
Home prices jumped ~24% during the period the Dallas Fed is examining (March 2021 to March 2024).
Yes a huge spike during the free money Covid era (2020-2022). What were prices doing 2023-2024?
Darth posted a handy graph on the OT version of this thread that showed the immediate impact of interest rate increases (while the illegals were still here). The "envelope math" clearly underrates the impact of interest rates on that "envelope math"
Posted on 7/6/26 at 5:44 am to Padme
Regardless of the exact percentage, illegal immigration negatively impacts housing prices and wages. That message should be hammered home through the midterms.
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