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GDP forecast being sandbagged?
Posted on 8/20/18 at 9:22 am
Posted on 8/20/18 at 9:22 am
First quarter we beat the previous year growth by over 1% and second quarter we again beat it by 1/2%. Third quarter last year was 3.5% so if the trend continues it should be 4% or better.
Consumer sales are in for June and they were a blistering 6.4% which is about 68% of the total GDP....which would mean if nothing else grows we still come in over 4%.
So why are the prognosticators all claiming around 3% for the third quarter....except for the Atlanta Fed that everyone discounts as being overly optimistic?
Maybe they all had jobs as global warming graphic illustrators? Work experience included the CBO?
Consumer sales are in for June and they were a blistering 6.4% which is about 68% of the total GDP....which would mean if nothing else grows we still come in over 4%.
So why are the prognosticators all claiming around 3% for the third quarter....except for the Atlanta Fed that everyone discounts as being overly optimistic?
Maybe they all had jobs as global warming graphic illustrators? Work experience included the CBO?
7
Posted on 8/20/18 at 9:23 am to trinidadtiger
I think it's hilarious how they act like the numbers aren't a big deal when they have been higher than anything we've seen in years
Posted on 8/20/18 at 9:26 am to trinidadtiger
Every single thing is some kind of conspiracy now with y'all.
Posted on 8/20/18 at 9:26 am to trinidadtiger
quote:
Third quarter last year was 3.5%
3.2
quote:
Consumer sales are in for June and they were a blistering 6.4% which is about 68% of the total GDP....which would mean if nothing else grows we still come in over 4%. So why are the prognosticators all claiming around 3% for the third quarter
june is q2
This post was edited on 8/20/18 at 9:28 am
Posted on 8/20/18 at 9:28 am to trinidadtiger
quote:
So why are the prognosticators all claiming around 3% for the third quarter.
Hard to say. You'd have to investigate each forecast individually.
Posted on 8/20/18 at 9:32 am to trinidadtiger
Heard "pundit" this am reference the unparalleled growth as short term, a "sugar high". These people are collectively spinning off the planet with TDS. Amazing.
Posted on 8/20/18 at 9:34 am to Mr. Misanthrope
quote:
Heard "pundit" this am reference the unparalleled growth as short term, a "sugar high".
I'd be interested in his reasoning. Did he provide a basis for his claim?
Posted on 8/20/18 at 9:36 am to GumboPot
quote:
Hard to say.
i can say why i like my number (especially for the year)
Posted on 8/20/18 at 9:43 am to 90proofprofessional
Proof,
I meant July on sales. And I understand if 3% for the year, 1st Quarter 2.2 and fourth quarter could have a lot of ifs regarding trade etc. I know you are somewhere around 3.1 for the year which is very healthy.
We have now had several quarters of very very good growth, and 4% of a 20 trillion dollar economy is in total dollars outpacing them chini by a country mile why doesnt the press just give credit.
I meant July on sales. And I understand if 3% for the year, 1st Quarter 2.2 and fourth quarter could have a lot of ifs regarding trade etc. I know you are somewhere around 3.1 for the year which is very healthy.
We have now had several quarters of very very good growth, and 4% of a 20 trillion dollar economy is in total dollars outpacing them chini by a country mile why doesnt the press just give credit.
Posted on 8/20/18 at 9:48 am to HailToTheChiz
quote:
GDP forecast being sandbagged?
I think it's hilarious how they act like the numbers aren't a big deal when they have been higher than anything we've seen in years
Lol, wtf are you even talking about.
2015 was better than 2017 and quarters 1 and 2 of 2015 were better on average than quarters 1 and 2 of 2018, so by "years", you must literally mean like "two years".
Posted on 8/20/18 at 9:50 am to trinidadtiger
quote:
why doesnt the press just give credit.
i think that they'd have no choice but to after q3, if it came in near the mid 3's or better, but for two things
1) deficits are exploding while the economy is already good
2a) there's something to the "sugar high" argument
2b) tariffs loom, both domestically and abroad
Posted on 8/20/18 at 10:06 am to trinidadtiger
quote:
First quarter we beat the previous year growth by over 1% and second quarter we again beat it by 1/2%. Third quarter last year was 3.5% so if the trend continues it should be 4% or better.
We kept having to adjust it downwards with Obama.
Posted on 8/20/18 at 10:16 am to trinidadtiger
quote:
First quarter we beat the previous year growth by over 1% and second quarter we again beat it by 1/2%. Third quarter last year was 3.5% so if the trend continues it should be 4% or better.
They are basing their projections on real data from this quarter and not just trends in recent quarters.
quote:
except for the Atlanta Fed that everyone discounts as being overly optimistic?
Well, at this point in Q1 of this year, they were projecting 5.4% growth, and the real number ended up being 2.2%. So yeah, their methodology seems prone to major fluctuations.
Posted on 8/20/18 at 10:17 am to 90proofprofessional
quote:
1) deficits are exploding while the economy is already good
The problem is spending. The last omnibus bill was outrageous. Overall the federal government is taking in more tax revenue compared to the last period:
Comparable Prior Period Year to Date: $2,739,861,000,000
Current Fiscal Year to Date: $2,766,071,000,000
It's a spending problem. Not a revenue problem.
LINK
Posted on 8/20/18 at 10:18 am to DallasTiger11
quote:
Every single thing is some kind of conspiracy now with y'all.
Even muh Russia?!
Posted on 8/20/18 at 10:30 am to GumboPot
quote:
The problem is spending. The last omnibus bill was outrageous
government spending adds to gdp just like household spending does
bigger deficits ==> short-term stimulus
the point of that isn't to blame the tax cuts for anything other than the accelerated growth that will wear off
Posted on 8/20/18 at 11:32 am to DallasTiger11
quote:
Every single conspiracy is some kind of thing now with y'all.
there FIFY
Posted on 8/20/18 at 11:44 am to member12
quote:90proof laughs at your pitiful assertion. he doesn't even have to back it up. he's like chuck norris. he just thinks it and it's true
We kept having to adjust it downwards with Obama
Posted on 8/20/18 at 11:50 am to GumboPot
quote:
I'd be interested in his reasoning. Did he provide a basis for his claim?
That's the thing-it was an abrupt tangential aside to comments respecting Brennen's security clearance revocation. Like even if something good could be said about POTUS, you really can't because...
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