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For those who disregard Trafalgar based on 2018 results
Posted on 10/25/20 at 2:33 pm
Posted on 10/25/20 at 2:33 pm
Real Clear Politics Discussing Trafalgar Group’s Accuracy In 2018
It was actually the most accurate poll in 2018, despite the results in TX and GA, which they still called correctly (result-wise).
quote:
Two years later, Cahaly’s method once again proved solid. In one of the most polled races of the cycle, Trafalgar stood alone as the only polling firm to correctly show a Ron DeSantis gubernatorial victory in Florida – as well as Rick Scott winning the Senate race there. (Both narrow outcomes will likely result in recounts.)
quote:And he referenced why he was wrong in TX and GA, in regards to the total numbers.
Trafalgar also correctly predicted Senate outcomes in Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, Texas and West Virginia (as of this writing Arizona remains undecided), making it the most accurate pollster of the cycle among those firms that polled multiple Senate and governor races.
quote:In summation, Trafalgar was shown to be an accurate polling service, not just in 2016, but also in 2018.
In the Georgia governor race, Cahaly’s results showed a big win for Republican Brian Kemp over Democrat Stacey Abrams. The final result, however, was a much closer Kemp victory. Cahaly gave credit to the Abrams campaign.
“They did a great job of registering voters late and bringing lots of new people into the process,” he told RealClearPolitics by phone on Thursday.
The same was true in Texas, Cahaly said, where Beto O’Rourke finished just 2.6 percentage points behind Ted Cruz.
It was actually the most accurate poll in 2018, despite the results in TX and GA, which they still called correctly (result-wise).
This post was edited on 10/25/20 at 2:35 pm
3
Posted on 10/25/20 at 2:37 pm to Scruffy
(no message)
This post was edited on 1/9/21 at 3:54 pm
Posted on 10/25/20 at 3:03 pm to WhitewaterDawg
quote:He is one of the few, if not the only.
Listened to him on Bongino. He thinks Trump wins again.
Like I said in another thread, this election is going to end some polling groups.
Posted on 10/25/20 at 3:14 pm to Scruffy
quote:
Like I said in another thread, this election is going to end some polling groups.
No, it won't. Polls are made to influence public perception, not measure it.
Posted on 10/25/20 at 3:14 pm to Scruffy
quote:
this election is going to end some polling groups
So Frank Luntz will have to get a real job?
Posted on 10/25/20 at 3:17 pm to BayBengal9
quote:
No, it won't. Polls are made to influence public perception, not measure it.
True but if Trump wins this election no one is believing polls again for a long time. Right now most look at 2016 as an outlier in polling history.
Posted on 10/25/20 at 3:17 pm to Scruffy
quote:
He is one of the few, if not the only.
As of today.
Many of the grifter polling services will start changing their minds the closer we get to next Tuesday.
Posted on 10/25/20 at 3:21 pm to Scruffy
quote:
In summation, Trafalgar was shown to be an accurate polling service, not just in 2016, but also in 2018.
It was actually the most accurate poll in 2018, despite the results in TX and GA, which they still called correctly (result-wise).
Also, pollsters talk about how hard it is to accurately poll Houses races. History favored the Dems taking back the House and they did. However, IIRC, ballot harvesting allowed the Dems to swing a bunch of close House races, esp in Cali.
Posted on 10/25/20 at 3:39 pm to BayBengal9
quote:If you watched the Frank Luntz focus group the other night, you know with absolutely certainty that the above statement is true.
Polls are made to influence public perception, not measure it.
ETA- spelling
This post was edited on 10/25/20 at 3:51 pm
Posted on 10/25/20 at 3:46 pm to samson73103
So Frank Luntz will have to get a real job?
Frank Luntz himself said on Fox about two days ago that if state polls show Biden leading by at least 5 points and Trump still wins it is the end of poling,and his career.
Frank Luntz himself said on Fox about two days ago that if state polls show Biden leading by at least 5 points and Trump still wins it is the end of poling,and his career.
Posted on 10/25/20 at 3:52 pm to samson73103
quote:
So Frank Luntz will have to get a real job?
And a new hair system
Posted on 10/25/20 at 3:56 pm to Scruffy
Scruffy, you’re an intelligent man. What makes more sense to you:
A) That the people are telling pollsters the truth and don’t perceive the question of “Are you voting for Trump or Biden” as “Are you a racist”.
B) That all of this is wrong or mostly wrong.
1) The Rally sizes. Trump is gathering many thousands and Kamala Harris can’t get 10 attend hers and has to break the law by going literally to the polls to rally.
2) There are large rallies for him nationwide without him or Pence being present.
3) Florida and Pennsylvania have registered more Republicans than Democrats in 4 years
4) According to Rasmussen Trump has 46% black approval rating; all Trump needs is 13% for a victory, so if that is even half correct at 23% has this wrapped up.
5) Trump in the polls is up 15% with Latinos. In the Telemundo polls Trump dominated Biden in the debate 66% to 34%.
6) The enthusiasm gap between Trump and Biden is very clear.
7) The early voting for Trump has been very good for him in Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin. This is supposed to be the time when Democrats vote.
8) 56% of Americans say their lives are better now than they were 4 years ago. How people can vote against their best interest just doesn’t happen.
9) More people identify now as Republican (28%) than Democrat (27%). Last time around it was 32% Democrat and 27% Republican (the rest being independents).
10) 56% of Americans think Trump is going to win.
11) Americans new found love of guns and Democrats threatening to take them.
Now while I have a hard time believing Trump has a 46% black approval rating, I think it’s more likely that people are lying to the pollsters thinking the question is “Are you a racist?” rather than all these stats being lies or mostly false.
A) That the people are telling pollsters the truth and don’t perceive the question of “Are you voting for Trump or Biden” as “Are you a racist”.
B) That all of this is wrong or mostly wrong.
1) The Rally sizes. Trump is gathering many thousands and Kamala Harris can’t get 10 attend hers and has to break the law by going literally to the polls to rally.
2) There are large rallies for him nationwide without him or Pence being present.
3) Florida and Pennsylvania have registered more Republicans than Democrats in 4 years
4) According to Rasmussen Trump has 46% black approval rating; all Trump needs is 13% for a victory, so if that is even half correct at 23% has this wrapped up.
5) Trump in the polls is up 15% with Latinos. In the Telemundo polls Trump dominated Biden in the debate 66% to 34%.
6) The enthusiasm gap between Trump and Biden is very clear.
7) The early voting for Trump has been very good for him in Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin. This is supposed to be the time when Democrats vote.
8) 56% of Americans say their lives are better now than they were 4 years ago. How people can vote against their best interest just doesn’t happen.
9) More people identify now as Republican (28%) than Democrat (27%). Last time around it was 32% Democrat and 27% Republican (the rest being independents).
10) 56% of Americans think Trump is going to win.
11) Americans new found love of guns and Democrats threatening to take them.
Now while I have a hard time believing Trump has a 46% black approval rating, I think it’s more likely that people are lying to the pollsters thinking the question is “Are you a racist?” rather than all these stats being lies or mostly false.
This post was edited on 10/25/20 at 3:59 pm
Posted on 10/25/20 at 4:03 pm to OMLandshark
Raymond Arroyo interviewed Mary Maiitlin on his show on EWTN and she gave an example of a question Trafalgar asks when polling.
“Do you own a fishing license?”
Mary said this is an example why Trafalgar is more accurate than other polls.
“Do you own a fishing license?”
Mary said this is an example why Trafalgar is more accurate than other polls.
Posted on 10/25/20 at 4:23 pm to hnds2th
quote:
Mary said this is an example why Trafalgar is more accurate than other polls.
Can you explain how that makes them more accurate?
Posted on 10/25/20 at 5:55 pm to Clemsontigers02
My understanding was they ask a few similar type questions to weed through the bs answers. I.E. A few “indicator” questions, like “do you own a fishing license?” Imagine the answer to this and a few other questions tells them which candidate/party one is likely to support.
Posted on 10/25/20 at 6:03 pm to OMLandshark
quote:
OMLandshark
I cant tell if you are on the side of the polls or polls are liars based on your posts.
Heres my deal with the recent gravis poll.
LINK
In this poll based on what the responders said Hillary won this cohort of voters 46%-43% for Trump.
But Hillary didnt win Wisconsin.
So im supposed to panic about a poll where they polled respondents who claimed to have voted for hillary at a 3% higher rate in a state that Donald Trump won?
It doesnt make sense. Either the respondents are lying or this is bad polling.
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