Economic experts are always surprised by things: What numbers are predicting recession?

Yield curve inversion on the 2 and 10 year bond....there’s no way this past indicator could be wrong now...or could it?

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Yield curve inversion on the 2 and 10 year bond....there’s no way this past indicator could be wrong now...or could it?

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For an hour or so? A week or more ago?

There is evidence from multiple studies to support that people can be talked into anything. I think there's a degree offered at universities that covers this topic.

Manipulation is as old as time.

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Yield curve inversion on the 2 and 10 year bond....there’s no way this past indicator could be wrong now...or could it?

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That's one of the top 10 indicators, but it's not the top one. Building permits is another one. Consumer confidence is another one. I don't remember all of them. But there are 10 big ones, and they're weighted differently.

slow global growth. Geopolitical risks in regards to trade... inverted yield curve. Pretty high levels of consumer debt. There are several indicators, but consumer confidence is strong, so are job numbers. There is a reason the Fed lowered interest rates though. It ain't just to appease the president.

also the 2-10 inversion was longer than an hour. There are quite a few inversions in the entire curve. 3 month is inverted with all maturities cept the 30 year.

and actually the 2-10 is inverted right now. We have been in one of the longest bull markets ever. That has some people a little concerned.

Thanks for the reply.

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risks

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Is there any group that clutches its pearls over risks more than financial people?

For years almost every headline and comment on Yahoo finance is scared and talking about crash.

manufacturing PMI came in just under that recession threshold this morning, and non-manufacturing (services, which haven't been weak at all) all of a sudden came in way under expectation, to barely in expansion itself. global manufacturing has been under the recession line for a while now

late last week the consumer sentiment data also took a nice dip all the way back to levels from a few years back

consumption is still solid and keeping us afloat, but that services PMI dip along with the underwater manufacturing one is worrisome

recession may or may not come, but a deceleration is here

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Yield curve inversion on the 2 and 10 year bond....there’s no way this past indicator could be wrong now...or could it?


That's one of the top 10 indicators, but it's not the top one. Building permits is another one. Consumer confidence is another one. I don't remember all of them. But there are 10 big ones, and they're weighted differently.

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GDP, unemployment, wage/salary changes year over year, inflation, all of which are positive.

The press made a big deal of housing starts being down last month versus forecast, WHAT THEY DID NOT SAY, permits are at a four month high.

The inversion is what everyone harps on. What they fail to mention is that several major countries now have negative interest rates, something never seen in this magnitude, and where do people all over the world park their money if they cant get a return in their country....US bonds. That might have a wee bit to do with it.

But 90% of the talking heads on TV think yield curve inversion is a description of sagging tits.

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Bingo, this is why the yield curve is inverted. Global investors are bringing down the long end.

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Thanks, Sherlock.