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re: Dr. Fauci in New England Journal of Medicine Concedes the Coronavirus Mortality Rate May

Posted on 3/27/20 at 9:04 am to
Posted by ShortyRob
Member since Oct 2008
82116 posts
Posted on 3/27/20 at 9:04 am to
quote:

There's no doubt about that but some people need to quit acting like the infection rate equals death. That's where this virus is being overblown.


Well that was always my point.

And, honestly, I disagree with those saying we were flying blind. It was frickING OBVIOUS from the data. All one had to do was a combination of peering into the numbers along with exercising some common sense regarding human behavior in the assumptions.

And no, "all" the experts weren't wrong. In fact, MANY of them agreed with ShortyRob. Alas, the media had no interest in listening to any of them and, well, frankly, govt "experts" are HIGHLY prone to err EXTREMELY on the safe side. Keep in mind, for them, the "safe" side is the "CYA, I ain't getting blamed if this goes south" side.

Basically, they're chicken shits.

I've been fricking right on this from the outset. I'll be right in the end. And, a bunch of people will wring their hands saying, "well, it was hard to know which experts to believe"

IDGAF. Stop 100% relying on experts people and learn some fricking math/common sense
Posted by ShortyRob
Member since Oct 2008
82116 posts
Posted on 3/27/20 at 9:07 am to
quote:

Yes. That was an easy call. It was in everything being said about the disease from the start.


That's the freaking annoying part.

I didn't have to go "discover" the information that allowed me to be correct.

They fricking GAVE it to me...…….and then, they ignored it.

Hell, all by itself, when they were telling us the supposed rates...…….it didn't talk that much effort to say, "wait a fricking second...……..then where are all the dead that no one can figure out why they died?"

People were like, "well, no one knew to check"...……..as if Doctors would have had a huge spate of deaths...….then the virus shows up...…...and none of the doctors would raise their hands about shite they were seeing that they couldn't explain.


Posted by RogerTheShrubber
Juneau, AK
Member since Jan 2009
299716 posts
Posted on 3/27/20 at 9:09 am to
quote:

Yeah that's not really something to throw a party over


It's also not something to destroy people's livelihood over.
Posted by DownshiftAndFloorIt
Here
Member since Jan 2011
72113 posts
Posted on 3/27/20 at 9:10 am to
I hear ya.

Hopefully when the smoke clears we the public see this as a global frickup and dont repeat it. Unfortunately until we ban women over 25 years old from having social media, itll only be worse next time.
Posted by Powerman
Member since Jan 2004
173802 posts
Posted on 3/27/20 at 9:12 am to
quote:

I've been fricking right on this from the outset. I'll be right in the end.

That hasn't really been proven yet to be honest
Posted by ShortyRob
Member since Oct 2008
82116 posts
Posted on 3/27/20 at 9:16 am to
quote:

Hopefully when the smoke clears we the public see this as a global frickup and dont repeat it


The public won't see it.

The public fricking SUCKS when dealing with large numbers. The average Joe thinks 100K is a large number when dealing with world population.

The public is going to see the MASSIVELY wrong numbers, and think that we just saved everyone with our awesome social distancing

There will be NO convincing them otherwise. People like me will just be voices in the wilderness.
Posted by TwoFace
Member since Mar 2018
1326 posts
Posted on 3/27/20 at 9:16 am to
What's this?
Posted by ShortyRob
Member since Oct 2008
82116 posts
Posted on 3/27/20 at 9:17 am to
quote:

That hasn't really been proven yet to be honest

Obviously.

But it will be.

And, it won't matter. Because the public is fricking stupid.
Posted by Good Times
Hill top in Tn
Member since Nov 2007
24867 posts
Posted on 3/27/20 at 9:23 am to
“a global frickup and don’t repeat it”

Til next year.

Whether it was a planned release or not, the mechanism for creating panic was ready.

Send crews out to buy up “necessary” stuff like toilet paper, and spread the word to get the general population to help spread the panic.

Get everyone pointing fingers and CYAing their positions.

Shut down economy AND spend like drunken sailors.

Pretty fragile balance.

Sometimes, you don’t recover.
Posted by ShortyRob
Member since Oct 2008
82116 posts
Posted on 3/27/20 at 9:24 am to
quote:

That hasn't really been proven yet to be honest
Here's what has ALWAYS been obvious

1. Everyone who ever even MENTIONED the 3.4% mortality rate publicly was the equivalent of yelling fire in a crowded theater...…..that they KNEW wasn't on fire. NOT ONE frickING PERSON in a position to know better...…..didn't. They knew they were conflating two different stats. They just didn't fricking care and in a just world, they'd be jailed.

2. To go with #1. Those who mentioned that rate, or even the mid 2s rates and then put it along side the normal FLU mortality rate KNOWING that the average person would do the multiplication KNEW they were full of shite. They wanted to scare people and, in a just world, they'd be jailed.

Both of the above were OBVIOUSLY false narratives from the VERY BEGINNING. No one with an IQ above room temperature has any excuse for propagating it other than economic ruin for political reasons.

Trust me. This is an area I'm pretty decent at, but I can GUARANfrickINTEE you that ShortyRob wasn't the only one who saw the problem. Not by a damned long shot. It didn't take some special unique insight.

Alas. Too many people just assumed that anyone not jumping on the scare everyone narrative was "defending Trump"

For that. frick them for THEIR stupidity too.
Posted by DownshiftAndFloorIt
Here
Member since Jan 2011
72113 posts
Posted on 3/27/20 at 9:31 am to
A few on here (including some drs) have been staunchly against locking down from the outset.

Posted by ShortyRob
Member since Oct 2008
82116 posts
Posted on 3/27/20 at 10:05 am to
quote:


A few on here (including some drs) have been staunchly against locking down from the outset

Definitely

Posted by catnip
Member since Sep 2003
16378 posts
Posted on 3/27/20 at 10:28 am to
Could it be that some cases are diagnosed as Coronavirus when in fact that some are the common flu? And when someone dies they put the death in the corona category? That would surely get people horrified with the number of out breaks and deaths.
Posted by jimmy the leg
Member since Aug 2007
44326 posts
Posted on 3/27/20 at 10:32 am to
quote:

They need to figure out what the real transmission rate is on this thing


80% (or more) being asymptomatic

+

limited testing

=

unknown transmission rate.

Posted by MeatCleaverWeaver
Member since Oct 2013
22175 posts
Posted on 3/27/20 at 10:37 am to
quote:

From the beginning my philosophy was be concerned and avoid panic


My doctor: “Some people are gonna get sick. Some people are going to get real sick. But this isn’t the damn apocalypse.”
Posted by LSU2a
SWLA to Dallas
Member since Aug 2012
2899 posts
Posted on 3/27/20 at 10:37 am to
quote:

Policy that will impact tens of millions of people in a negative way should not be based on the assumptions of a single model.


How do you even know this? Do you have a source that states that the US government enacted policy based on a single model or source?
Posted by Ace Midnight
Between sanity and madness
Member since Dec 2006
95675 posts
Posted on 3/27/20 at 10:50 am to
quote:

The public is going to see the MASSIVELY wrong numbers, and think that we just saved everyone with our awesome social distancing


On the one hand, it will be difficult to argue that the measures had "no" effect. I think we can agree on that.

On the other hand, many of us have been arguing for a moderated, reasonable response, the President chiefly in that camp early, even with his early travel shut down.

You can't deny that the MSM and the Karens were not having it. Would...not...hear...it. I reluctantly threw in with the - "Okay, if we're going to do it, let's do it right now, short-term and see" camp, because waiting, with all the panic, the damage was going to be done and more drawn out.

Once the antibody assay is done, with a solid estimate of the infection rate, how long in circulation, true IFR, etc., we will all collectively realize that it wasn't nearly as severe as the doomsdayers were pushing early and often (the same folks who called Trump racist for his travel ban just days/weeks before, thus rendering their motives transparent as glass) and even more reason to never listen to the MSM (or frankly, some of the more conservative, panic-prone medical experts) again.

But, I already wasn't listening to them. I know what they're telling me is not the truth, but rather an information operation targeting a behavioral outcome.

Hell, I was a kid during the 1970s gas crisis and I figured that one out.

At the end of the day, it is highly unlikely the net cost to our economy was worth the modest reduction in negative outcomes. We don't do this for traffic fatalities and we don't do it for the seasonal flu. Ergo, we shouldn't have done it for this one. Period.
This post was edited on 3/27/20 at 10:52 am
Posted by the808bass
The Lou
Member since Oct 2012
128849 posts
Posted on 3/27/20 at 10:50 am to
quote:

Could it be that some cases are diagnosed as Coronavirus when in fact that some are the common flu?


Unlikely.
Posted by imjustafatkid
Alabama
Member since Dec 2011
65899 posts
Posted on 3/27/20 at 10:52 am to
quote:

Yeah that's not really something to throw a party over


Not something to shut the country down over either.

ETA: Or pay any attention to at all, really.
This post was edited on 3/27/20 at 10:53 am
Posted by Champagne
Sabine Free State.
Member since Oct 2007
55351 posts
Posted on 3/27/20 at 10:58 am to
But this virus seems to be very virulent in particular bad cases. The rapid attack on the lungs seems to cause respiratory failure very quickly, from what I gather from anecdotal accounts on the internet. That's scary. It seems like a "Blitzkrieg" on the lungs.
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