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Message
re: Despite being open (to the disappointment of alarmists) GA cases continue to decline.
Posted on 5/5/20 at 12:30 pm to Microtiger
Posted on 5/5/20 at 12:30 pm to Microtiger
quote:
Maybe it just so happens that when it comes to pure interpretation of Covid numbers and stats like this thread, the common sense argument is strongly on one side over the other?
It’s not. You’re fooling yourself. And that’s what people are responding to. Your own lack of introspection.
1
Posted on 5/5/20 at 12:31 pm to RidiculousHype
quote:
Or am I misunderstanding your point?
In the link they have this little disclaimer:
quote:
* 14-day window – Confirmed cases over the last 14 days may not be accounted for due to illnesses yet to be reported or test results may still be pending.
That's why I said in my previous post the GA numbers may be lagging other numbers.
So I went over to Rt.live to get the real time numbers and posted that at the top of page 2. Current data shows no appreciable increase in cases since GA opened up.
Posted on 5/5/20 at 12:32 pm to SevenLinesofPine
quote:
Defend your virus, lib trash!
You've got the wrong person. I'm on team open up.
Posted on 5/5/20 at 12:33 pm to moneyg
quote:
In other words, the chart that you referenced in your OP is misleading.
In other words the chart I posed is misunderstood.
I tried to clarify it in subsequent posts.
Posted on 5/5/20 at 12:40 pm to Microtiger
I heard that you were elected secretary of the VDC. I don’t trust people who work for the Virus Defense Commission. Sorry.
Posted on 5/5/20 at 12:43 pm to GumboPot
quote:
In other words the chart I posed is misunderstood.
I think you misunderstood it. I think any reasonable person who read that chart and the verbiage above it would think that it was representing a significant drop in cases. Unfortunately, that's not happening right now.
I support the actions Georgia is taking to reopen. But, posting a misleading chart like that (even if you were fooled) doesn't help.
quote:
I tried to clarify it in subsequent posts.
I realize that. It doesn't make the chart sitting in your OP any less misleading.
Posted on 5/5/20 at 12:47 pm to moneyg
quote:
Well since you don't want to look it up yourself, you can take my word for it. Georgia has approximately 700-800 new cases per day. And, if you look at that graph, it indicates far, far fewer in the last week. And, the OP was using it to show that there has been a dropoff in cases.
That just isn't reality.
The reality in Georgia is:
* They have flattened, and that is a good thing
* I support their decision to reopen aggressively
* New cases will probably have a lag to the reopening. So, if there is an impact, we will probably see it in a week or two.
Agreed.
I still don’t see why you didn’t simply say to the OP “hey I realize that chart comes from the GA govt, but it is showing old info”. I think your point would have been easier to understand.
Posted on 5/5/20 at 12:53 pm to GumboPot
I hope that continues. Everyone is watching. Some of us hoping. Others hoping the opposite (Stacy Abrams)
Posted on 5/5/20 at 12:57 pm to the808bass
quote:
There are no counties in Georgia that show any significant increase in the trend of infections.
LINK
I can't open the link because I don't have a NYTs sub.
However the chart behind NYT's sign-in pop up box looks like the same data that was used to create the chart I posted on the top of page 2.
Posted on 5/5/20 at 12:59 pm to the808bass
quote:
It’s not. You’re fooling yourself. And that’s what people are responding to. Your own lack of introspection.
I'm not talking about interpretation of the data or decisions about how to respond to the data, i.e. lockdowns. Which of the two sides is consistently misrepresenting graphs and numbers to fit their agenda?
The closest claim against liberals is that they are cooking the books in the first place and the numbers are skewed, that the numbers are inaccurate. I'm not talking about that. I'm talking about false and intentionally misleading representation of that data. That is all coming from one direction who wants and needs the virus to look like as little of a problem as possible and are unwilling to accept that it is killing people and is a threat.
And no, that doesn't mean I think we should be 100% locked down, I agree that focused lockdowns make the most sense and we should treat individual communities when problem arise rather than blanketing the whole country.
See how I have to keep writing disclaimers like that? That's because in this forum, to even talk about data that puts a bad shade on the virus invites attacks and wild assumptions. So of course I'm going to appear to be on the defensive all the time in an overwhelmingly far-right place like this.
I still don't understand what your angle is.
Posted on 5/5/20 at 1:00 pm to GumboPot
But two weeks
Posted on 5/5/20 at 1:01 pm to the808bass
quote:
There are no counties in Georgia that show any significant increase in the trend of infections.
It's because it was here before we think it was, it's more widespread than we think it is, and we have quite a bit of herd immunity already.
Posted on 5/5/20 at 1:01 pm to GumboPot
“New cases” has no value unless interpreted through the lens of #of tests administered and the population that they tested.
Even then, it needs further qualifications of degree of sickness.
Either way, lower numbers may help the sky screamers to calm down.
Even then, it needs further qualifications of degree of sickness.
Either way, lower numbers may help the sky screamers to calm down.
Posted on 5/5/20 at 1:04 pm to Microtiger
quote:
I'm talking about false and intentionally misleading representation of that data. That is all coming from one direction who wants and needs the virus to look like as little of a problem as possible and are unwilling to accept that it is killing people and is a threat.
That’s just not true. There was a story I saw that said “Georgia has the most cases on the day they open up!!!” Is that misleading? Yes. And it’s not on the side of opening up. We’ve had millions of stories on “we’re going to run out of vents!!” We were never going to run out of vents. Which side is that? “We’re going to turn into Italy! Look at this data from Italy from two weeks ago!” Which side is that? “2.1M Americans will die if we don’t all go inside immediately!” Which side was that?
Posted on 5/5/20 at 1:05 pm to SECdragonmaster
quote:
“New cases” has no value unless interpreted through the lens of #of tests administered and the population that they tested.
New cases which don’t affect hospitalization numbers are meaningless.
Posted on 5/5/20 at 1:13 pm to moneyg
quote:
Georgia's case count hasn't fallen off like that over the last week.
Not being confrontational, but is it not a given that cases are going to likely go up whenever any region opens? The virus has not disappeared.
Posted on 5/5/20 at 1:22 pm to the808bass
quote:
There was a story I saw that said “Georgia has the most cases on the day they open up!!!” Is that misleading? Yes. And it’s not on the side of opening up.
Not an intentionally misleading presentation of data. They were not saying opening up caused the cases. They were saying opening up when you have not even hit your peak yet is a bad idea, because you're clearly not in the clear. You skipped right past your own bias into a different argument.
quote:
We’ve had millions of stories on “we’re going to run out of vents!!” We were never going to run out of vents. Which side is that?
Not an intentionally misleading presentation of data. We'll never know if we would have run out of vents or not without the shutdown. Ask yourself, why is this a political stance for you?
quote:
“We’re going to turn into Italy! Look at this data from Italy from two weeks ago!” Which side is that?
Not an intentionally misleading presentation of data. We exceeded Italy's trajectory and literally matched their exponential curve in step with them but two weeks ahead. Yeah, I know, we have a larger population so of course were going to have more absolute numbers. We literally have more per capita confirmed cases than Italy does right now. The exponential growth was real and it was legitimate to extrapolate from their data. Ask yourself, why is this a political stance for you?
quote:
“2.1M Americans will die if we don’t all go inside immediately!” Which side was that?
Not an intentionally misleading presentation of data. We'll never know how many would have died if we'd done absolutely nothing. I argue that just knowing about the virus made people act differently enough that without a shutdown at all we'd mitigate deaths quite a bit. I'm in agreement with you that full country-wide lockdown was a gross overreaction and a mistake, I live in country upstate New York and you better believe it's felt inappropriate for us to be under the strict lockdown thanks to the City four hours away.
You're making increasingly bad faith arguments.
Posted on 5/5/20 at 1:49 pm to RidiculousHype
quote:
Agreed.
I still don’t see why you didn’t simply say to the OP “hey I realize that chart comes from the GA govt, but it is showing old info”. I think your point would have been easier to understand.
I don't know what you mean by "old info". It was showing incomplete info for the last week or so that painted a picture of a significant drop in cases that actually didn't exist.
There was nothing in the OP that was productive.
The chart was misleading. The header above the chart made it worse.
And, the OP's conclusion was wrong for those reasons and because not enough time has occurred to even evaluate the way we reopened:
quote:
So, either Georgia has some special magic force or shutting down in the manner that we did really didn't sway COVID infection rates like we are being told by the experts.
And, that's a problem. It gives ammo to idiots like microtiger who are going to use shite like this to try an make a point. And, if you don't believe me, read this thread.
In reality, Georgia isn't gaining cases. It has a very low case count per 1000 for a state with a major metropolitan area.
That's the argument. It's not pretending like 4 days after opening, we have seen a major dropoff in cases.
I don't think the OP was trying to be dishonest. He just did a really shitty job of making his point.
This post was edited on 5/5/20 at 1:53 pm
Posted on 5/5/20 at 1:54 pm to The Boat
quote:
It's because it was here before we think it was, it's more widespread than we think it is, and we have quite a bit of herd immunity already.
If you believe this, you should be the biggest population testing advocate on this Board. Antibody testing could shed light on this in a huge way.
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