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re: Daily COVID Updated as of 11/2/20 8:00 PM
Posted on 3/23/20 at 10:36 pm to Chromdome35
Posted on 3/23/20 at 10:36 pm to Chromdome35
2
Posted on 3/23/20 at 10:37 pm to tiger91
Oh yeah, you right- new CV cases per day. Or Nuebla Virona if you are singing from Madonna's bathtub.
Posted on 3/23/20 at 10:48 pm to PhDoogan
quote:
We've have a five day lag w test results, w/ an increased supply of tests per day, so if pandemic gonna pandemic exponential, then NV cases should be way up. So if today is not double yesterday or worse, then these are positive signs, right?
From 3/1-3/17, daily average growth of testing was ~32%.
5 Daily growth per day thereafter follows:
3/18: 44.4%
3/19: 49.0%
3/20: 40.6%
3/21: 24.9%
3/22: 38.7%
3/23: 29.5%
You can see that daily case growth it is up somewhat.
This post was edited on 3/23/20 at 10:51 pm
Posted on 3/23/20 at 10:57 pm to NYNolaguy1
quote:
3/18: 44.4%
3/19: 49.0%
3/20: 40.6%
3/21: 24.9%
3/22: 38.7%
3/23: 29.5%
Overall, isn't this a good trend? If we plotted these percentages, it seems like it is.
Posted on 3/23/20 at 11:07 pm to tiger91
Another way I am looking at it is that, if more tests are flooding the market, and if each day we don't see exponentially more confirmed CV cases, then the measures have had an effect- whether they were worth it or not, well... that will be subject to decades of debate.
Posted on 3/23/20 at 11:07 pm to PhDoogan
Sorry — didn’t know what the N.V. was for.
Posted on 3/23/20 at 11:14 pm to PhDoogan
quote:
Overall, isn't this a good trend? If we plotted these percentages, it seems like it is.
If you were to draw the trend line as I did before it would be something like:
Total cases=b0*1.38^x
Where x is days, 38% is the average growth/day for the last 5 days, and b0 is your total cases initial # on day 0.
If you're wondering if that outpaces deaths you're right, at least for now, as deaths have a daily growth rate on average of like 31% and obviously 38% is more than 31%.
As long as cases out pace deaths you will see the ratio of total cases/deaths go down, and vice versa if the numbers go the other way.
This post was edited on 3/23/20 at 11:21 pm
Posted on 3/23/20 at 11:28 pm to tiger91
quote:
Sorry — didn’t know what the N.V. was
No worries baw- Typing too fast, thinking too slow.
Posted on 3/24/20 at 12:01 am to NYNolaguy1
quote:
Total cases=b0*1.38^x
I don't know what this means.
I appreciate your intelligence and mathematical abilities. But can you agree or disagree with me and tell me I am correct or incorrect in plain terms... honestly, want to know your insight.
quote:
If you were to draw the trend line as I did before
Dude, did you give me a drawing... I feel bad now. I'm going to post this first, go back and look, and probably feel like a dick later.
Doogan just farded and it's burning my nose hairs. Oh well, here's a goodnight meme to think of simpler times, like impeachment:
Posted on 3/24/20 at 12:12 am to PhDoogan
quote:
But can you agree or disagree with me and tell me I am correct or incorrect in plain terms... honestly, want to know your insight.
Here it is in simple terms. Yes the rate of new cases went up. Yes it could be due to increased testing. As long as new confirmed cases outpaces deaths, overall mortality will appear to go down. That will make everyone sleep better at night.
This post was edited on 3/24/20 at 12:13 am
Posted on 3/24/20 at 12:20 am to NYNolaguy1
It seems testing is slowing down at the drive thrus in Lafayette. Wonder if that is true for other areas of the state.
Posted on 3/24/20 at 3:46 am to Chromdome35
I do not like the deaths trend.
At this rate will be at 200/day mid week and about 400/day this coming weekend. We will blow past H1N1 total deaths in about 10-12 days if this rate doesn't change.
Seems to be doubling ~ 2.5 days.
I really hope the HC and Azithromycin is effective, deemed to be so soon and gets used.
At this rate will be at 200/day mid week and about 400/day this coming weekend. We will blow past H1N1 total deaths in about 10-12 days if this rate doesn't change.
Seems to be doubling ~ 2.5 days.
I really hope the HC and Azithromycin is effective, deemed to be so soon and gets used.
Posted on 3/24/20 at 4:09 am to NorCali
Settle down, dude. Many people were projecting the virus to peak this week in terms of death and new cases.
Posted on 3/24/20 at 6:39 am to Chromdome35
Does anyone know I can get raw data at the county/parish level for all of these stats?
Posted on 3/24/20 at 7:18 am to NYNolaguy1
quote:
From 3/1-3/17, daily average growth of testing was ~32%.
5 Daily growth per day thereafter follows:
3/18: 44.4%
3/19: 49.0%
3/20: 40.6%
3/21: 24.9%
3/22: 38.7%
3/23: 29.5%
You can see that daily case growth it is up somewhat.
This is almost the least significant data point to look at.
Mortality ratio and CFR are the only things to monitor.
And after those I would say what percent of the total new cases are actually hospitalized.
Those are the major and only data points to focus on.
Posted on 3/24/20 at 7:34 am to NorCali
quote:
I do not like the deaths trend.
At this rate will be at 200/day mid week and about 400/day this coming weekend. We will blow past H1N1 total deaths in about 10-12 days if this rate doesn't change.
Seems to be doubling ~ 2.5 days.
Then you sure don't want to look 1 month ahead! SCARY!
Posted on 3/24/20 at 7:39 am to Magician2
quote:
Mortality ratio and CFR are the only things to monitor.
Sure but that if that case daily growth rate falls below your death daily growth you will see that CFR increase as deaths will be outpacing new cases at that point.
Posted on 3/24/20 at 8:25 am to Chromdome35
quote:
Chromdome35
Thanks for your work, this has been a great follow. I hate to ask for anything more, but would it be possible to add a tab for Louisiana (I'm assuming most that are following this are in LA)?
Posted on 3/24/20 at 9:32 am to cusoonkpd
At the beginning of each year, I always map out a book reading program for the year that I feel like I can get through over 12 months. Oddly enough it had me starting The Stand last week. I'm through about chapter 11 right now and people are starting to drop like flys.
Maybe that's why I'm so anxious.
Maybe that's why I'm so anxious.
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