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re: Daily COVID Updated as of 11/2/20 8:00 PM
Posted on 3/19/20 at 1:01 pm to Ace Midnight
Posted on 3/19/20 at 1:01 pm to Ace Midnight
Looking at the smaller EU countries, does this radically alter what travel among the European countries looks like?
1
Posted on 3/19/20 at 1:01 pm to Tiguar
We’ve known that it won’t be until next week or maybe the following that we will learn to what extent social distancing and suppression began early enough.
Posted on 3/19/20 at 1:25 pm to Damone
quote:
We’ve known that it won’t be until next week or maybe the following that we will learn to what extent social distancing and suppression began early enough.
Frankly, this has always been a binary analysis for me - either this thing is as infectious as they say it is or it isn't.
If it is, since it has been circulating, frankly, since before Christmas (due to Red China's disinformation campaign), then everyone has been exposed or will be exposed, and many, many millions will develop an infection.
Good news - it can't be nearly as lethal as we were told at the beginning (3% to 5% CFR), because the bodies would already be stacking up.
Bad news - the economic damage is already done from the panic and the final counting doesn't really matter (other than for specifics), because it will (still) likely end up no worse than a really bad flu season.
Now - if we are NOT as behind as I think many of us suspect we are, then the intervention and social distancing will likely make a difference going forward. I'm still not sure the economic costs will ever be justified, but I'm open to being wrong about that.
Having said all of that, Europe is going to absolutely take it in the shorts if current trends are anything like accurate.
This post was edited on 3/19/20 at 1:25 pm
Posted on 3/19/20 at 1:26 pm to the808bass
quote:
Looking at the smaller EU countries, does this radically alter what travel among the European countries looks like?
Like I said above, I think Europe is in for a rough 6 to 8 weeks (maybe longer). They actually could get what is predicted here - million or more dead.
Posted on 3/19/20 at 1:29 pm to Ace Midnight
With increased testing here in the U.S. the mortality rate will continue to drop. I feel like sooner or later that will have to lead to this madness settling down.
Posted on 3/19/20 at 1:30 pm to Ace Midnight
quote:
Now - if we are NOT as behind as I think many of us suspect we are, then the intervention and social distancing will likely make a difference going forward. I'm still not sure the economic costs will ever be justified, but I'm open to being wrong about that.
We closed up a lot of stuff before it even looked like there was a problem. Which seemed to even me to be a huge overreaction at the time. And it may still be an overreaction. There’s no way for us to know until we look back at it. But the really quick reaction time is certainly going to limit the number of infections.
Posted on 3/19/20 at 1:35 pm to jcaz
quote:
With increased testing here in the U.S. the mortality rate will continue to drop. I feel like sooner or later that will have to lead to this madness settling down.
You would think, but this is ALL in how the media chooses to report it.
If they choose to simply report the raw numbers, and shade that negative, the public will continue to panic and the local governments will continue to seize more and more power with more draconian restrictions.
If they choose to report the drop in mortality rates, things will ease back to normal.
They will make every attempt to do scenario 1 because they need this to last a lot longer.
Posted on 3/19/20 at 1:38 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
I have been basing my “days” on my calendar days not on whatever day schedule the site uses. That’s what cause the slight misalignment of my daily growth rate vs theirs. At the core, the numbers are still the same.
Are you the one compiling these?
If so can you put it on a log scale? That would help show whats trending and whats not.
Thanks
Eta: who downvotes this?
This post was edited on 3/19/20 at 1:42 pm
Posted on 3/19/20 at 1:39 pm to Fun Bunch
Fun, I agree with you wholeheartedly.
That is why my postings have all been focused on the actual numbers being reported instead of on any FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt)
That is why my postings have all been focused on the actual numbers being reported instead of on any FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt)
Posted on 3/19/20 at 1:41 pm to Chromdome35
Here is an article from The Lancet, a peer-reviewed medical journal, which describes the 14 day delay in mortality rates.
The Lancet had a 2019 Journal Impact Factor of 59. 102, ranking second out of 160 journals in the Medicine, General & Internal subject category.
You should find it interesting.
LINK
The Lancet had a 2019 Journal Impact Factor of 59. 102, ranking second out of 160 journals in the Medicine, General & Internal subject category.
You should find it interesting.
LINK
Posted on 3/19/20 at 1:42 pm to NYNolaguy1
I am pulling the numbers off the worldometer site and plugging them into a spreadsheet to generate the data and graphs I've been posting.
I am using Google Sheets, and when I try to graph using logarithmic scales, it doesn't seem to be working correctly.
It's probably that I am a dumbass by nature and don't know wtf I'm doing :)
I am using Google Sheets, and when I try to graph using logarithmic scales, it doesn't seem to be working correctly.
It's probably that I am a dumbass by nature and don't know wtf I'm doing :)
Posted on 3/19/20 at 1:43 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
It's probably that I am a dumbass by nature and don't know wtf I'm doing :)
I doubt that. You've done a good job so far.
Posted on 3/19/20 at 1:46 pm to NYNolaguy1
Is this the sanity thread? Cause we were in desperate need of one.
Posted on 3/19/20 at 1:46 pm to Chromdome35
Here it is using the Log Scale option in G Sheets
Posted on 3/19/20 at 1:52 pm to jcaz
quote:That would be logical, but instead were getting the "it's spreading faster, look at all the new cases" reaction from the media and public officials.
With increased testing here in the U.S.
Posted on 3/19/20 at 1:53 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
Chromdome35
Thanks.
Once you see a change in that line slope it will tell you if total case rate is increasing or decreasing from increased testing etc.This post was edited on 3/19/20 at 1:55 pm
Posted on 3/19/20 at 1:55 pm to NYNolaguy1
Would it be helpful to everyone to post the Total Cases graph using both axis types (normal and logarithmic)? I don't mind doing it if you all think it would be helpful.
Posted on 3/19/20 at 1:59 pm to Chromdome35
How many more days until we start to see recoveries mature?
Posted on 3/19/20 at 2:05 pm to TigerFanatic99
Have to get a negative test twice. And the virus stays in your system for how long? 14 days? 30 days?
Testing really just started a couple weeks ago in the US. Recovered Americans won’t start showing for another week I’d guess
Testing really just started a couple weeks ago in the US. Recovered Americans won’t start showing for another week I’d guess
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