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re: Daily COVID Updated as of 11/2/20 8:00 PM
Posted on 7/7/20 at 4:49 pm to vl100butch
Posted on 7/7/20 at 4:49 pm to vl100butch
Questions:
1) The death rate of cases reported: Are you saying you're taking the # of deaths for today / # cases reported today? If not, what exactly are you using?
2) Isn't this the same thing as the positivity rate ie # cases reported (new cases) / # of tests performed?
1) The death rate of cases reported: Are you saying you're taking the # of deaths for today / # cases reported today? If not, what exactly are you using?
2) Isn't this the same thing as the positivity rate ie # cases reported (new cases) / # of tests performed?
1
Posted on 7/7/20 at 5:03 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
Questions:
1) The death rate of cases reported: Are you saying you're taking the # of deaths for today / # cases reported today? If not, what exactly are you using?
I'm using the total number of deaths reported/total number of cases reported...so for Tuesday I'm diving 3211 deaths reported by 68263 cases reported...
quote:
2) Isn't this the same thing as the positivity rate ie # cases reported (new cases) / # of tests performed?
Not entirely sure...my 8.05% comes from dividing 68236 cases reported by 847,598 total tests performed by state and commercial labs...
even though I'm a retreaded field artilleryman turned comptroller/finance with a strat planner secondary, I'm trying to lay this out in infantry language...
Posted on 7/7/20 at 5:04 pm to Chromdome35
919. well that just sucks.
Posted on 7/7/20 at 5:05 pm to jeffsdad
It’s a backlog from the 3 day weekend
I wouldn’t put much stock into it
I wouldn’t put much stock into it
Posted on 7/7/20 at 5:10 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
Yeah. Still a little higher than I would have anticipated.
Hopefully we see the week-over-week numbers decline starting around Thursday.
Hopefully we see the week-over-week numbers decline starting around Thursday.
Posted on 7/7/20 at 5:10 pm to Chromdome35
New cases today of 52K on the back of 653K of testing. The positivity rate for today was 7.9% which is up 1% from last Tuesday and just slightly down .1% from the 7-day average. Today was a new record for cases on a Tuesday. The average positivity rate continues to slowly climb.
Deaths were very high today at 919. This is a hangover from the holiday. The next few days will give a more accurate picture. 919 deaths is 279% above yesterday, 54% above last week and 74% above the 7-day average.
Mortality continues to decline and is now at 4.16%.
There are a lot more states appearing in yellow & red on this chart showing the 7-day average growth rate of cases.
Let's all hope that in the coming days the death rate resumes its decline.
Deaths were very high today at 919. This is a hangover from the holiday. The next few days will give a more accurate picture. 919 deaths is 279% above yesterday, 54% above last week and 74% above the 7-day average.
Mortality continues to decline and is now at 4.16%.
There are a lot more states appearing in yellow & red on this chart showing the 7-day average growth rate of cases.
Let's all hope that in the coming days the death rate resumes its decline.
This post was edited on 7/7/20 at 5:11 pm
Posted on 7/7/20 at 5:14 pm to vl100butch
Sorry for all the questions, just trying to understand what you are looking at.
Where are you getting 68K cases and 3211 deaths for today?
Based on the COVID Tracking project numbers 51.8K new cases for today / 653K tests = 7.9% positivity rate.
Where are you getting 68K cases and 3211 deaths for today?
Based on the COVID Tracking project numbers 51.8K new cases for today / 653K tests = 7.9% positivity rate.
Posted on 7/7/20 at 5:18 pm to Chromdome35
He's using total Louisiana numbers.
Posted on 7/7/20 at 5:19 pm to Athanatos
OH, duh.
Posted on 7/7/20 at 6:42 pm to vl100butch
So taking total deaths / total cases = Mortality Rate. This number is visible on my tracker under the heading mortality rate.
For LA this is what a graph of the mortality rate looks like
This graph shows the positivity rate (the other number your calculating) for LA since 6/1
For LA this is what a graph of the mortality rate looks like
This graph shows the positivity rate (the other number your calculating) for LA since 6/1
This post was edited on 7/7/20 at 6:50 pm
Posted on 7/7/20 at 7:40 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:Were the 3 days of the 3-day weekend reporting lower-than-expected numbers?
It’s a backlog from the 3 day weekend
I wouldn’t put much stock into it
Posted on 7/7/20 at 7:47 pm to Big Scrub TX
Yes,
Posted on 7/7/20 at 8:00 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
Using chrome’s numbers, the Friday-Monday average was 419 a day.
Posted on 7/7/20 at 8:17 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:How much lower - like in the 200s and 300s?
Yes,
Posted on 7/7/20 at 8:30 pm to Big Scrub TX
Friday-306
Saturday-209
Sunday-242
ETA: sorry, those numbers actually Sat, Sun, Mon.
Saturday-209
Sunday-242
ETA: sorry, those numbers actually Sat, Sun, Mon.
This post was edited on 7/7/20 at 9:54 pm
Posted on 7/7/20 at 8:48 pm to Volsfan82169
This Saturday through Tuesday had 30 deaths less than Saturday through Tuesday of the prior week.
So everything so far is moving as expected.
So everything so far is moving as expected.
This post was edited on 7/7/20 at 8:53 pm
Posted on 7/7/20 at 9:52 pm to Teddy Ruxpin
quote:Sweet. Teddy, which date would you peg as pretty meaningful if we reach it and we're still status quo here? July 20th or so?
This Saturday through Tuesday had 30 deaths less than Saturday through Tuesday of the prior week.
So everything so far is moving as expected.
Posted on 7/8/20 at 12:00 am to Big Scrub TX
I'm no expert and there are far better posters on this site regarding this, but if we're at July 20th and deaths haven't moved up too much then some experts/scientists have more research to do.
Or maybe the government needs to start listening to some other ones?
Or maybe the government needs to start listening to some other ones?
This post was edited on 7/8/20 at 12:03 am
Posted on 7/8/20 at 12:26 am to Teddy Ruxpin
I tend to be a bit more cautious by nature. In my mind, if we get through July without a bump in the death rate, we are probably entering the end game.
If deaths start going up, even moderately, then who knows when it will be over.
If deaths start going up, even moderately, then who knows when it will be over.
Posted on 7/8/20 at 12:45 am to Chromdome35
Ya, if we're through July we're about 7 /8 weeks into the surge of cases.
That's beyond any timeframe people had put on deaths turning up with cases, so you're definitely putting the onus on them to explain what's going on and reduce restrictions.
I agree that a moderate increase in deaths may be a problem because nominal numbers are more relatable to, and thus scare, people more than mortality rates.
That's beyond any timeframe people had put on deaths turning up with cases, so you're definitely putting the onus on them to explain what's going on and reduce restrictions.
I agree that a moderate increase in deaths may be a problem because nominal numbers are more relatable to, and thus scare, people more than mortality rates.
This post was edited on 7/8/20 at 1:00 am
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