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Posted on 7/2/20 at 8:40 am to Chromdome35
California didn't report data in time to get into the tracking ecosystem yesterday. Evidently they had enough new cases to put the US daily total over 50K for the first time.
UPDATE: 7/2 9:23AM COVID Tracking Project has updated their numbers for yesterday to include California. I have updated my tracker to match.
UPDATE: 7/2 9:23AM COVID Tracking Project has updated their numbers for yesterday to include California. I have updated my tracker to match.
This post was edited on 7/2/20 at 9:23 am
Posted on 7/2/20 at 10:22 am to Chromdome35
On the US dashboard tab, I added graphs to track current US hospitalizations, ICU Usage, Ventilator Usage in both the full and near terms. The graphs are at the bottom of the tracker page.
I also added an active cases graph, even though we all know it isn't accurate since recoveries aren't reported with any consistency.
I also added an active cases graph, even though we all know it isn't accurate since recoveries aren't reported with any consistency.
Posted on 7/2/20 at 10:24 am to Chromdome35
Bad news for Florida. 10,000+ cases and 67 deaths.
Posted on 7/2/20 at 10:32 am to Crimsonians
Posted on 7/2/20 at 11:46 am to Chromdome35
Is that overall or Covid for ICU and hospitalizations?
Posted on 7/2/20 at 12:10 pm to Chromdome35
Interesting comment:
LINK
quote:
OK, so people are concerned deaths are not tracking confirmed cases. There are two big reasons. First, deaths lags cases by 27 days now, and only lagged by 7-8 days in March. So, when people try to line them up, they line up the exponential rise in March. What has changed is people are testing closer to inoculation, and it takes less time from taking the test to reporting it. Second, test positivity is much lower, so we are missing fewer cases now than we did in early April. If you use the 27 day lag, and line up deaths with infection density, it is much harder to convince yourself there has been any change in the infectivity and danger of COVID-19. Instead, the additional time lag has given people a sense of false comfort that will come crashing down, in another 2-3 weeks, in Arizona. Here are plots of deaths overlaid with confirmed cases, nationally, and with infection density, to illustrate the sense of false comfort (top), and something closer to reality (bottom). We have the data to fine tune the infection density estimations again, and I think the sqrt rule will change to something like a 0.4 exponent rule, but I need time to analyze it properly.
LINK
Posted on 7/2/20 at 12:12 pm to Big Scrub TX
Hahaha. Something about goalposts.
Posted on 7/2/20 at 12:43 pm to Crimsonians
quote:
Hahaha. Something about goalposts.
It's a counter case to the one we have been making on here about the rolling death count. I think he's probably wrong (e.g. if he is positing that testing is being done much closer to inoculation, then I would think that almost by definition implied treatment was being sought sooner - and thus severities should be lower.) 
Posted on 7/2/20 at 12:46 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:
First, deaths lags cases by 27 days now, and only lagged by 7-8 days in March.
None of this is accurate.
In March, the average time to death was around 14 days. Now, it’s around 14 days.
Posted on 7/2/20 at 1:02 pm to Crimsonians
Yes, it is the current US numbers.
Keep in mind that the hospitalization data is probably the weakest data out of all the data. Some states don't report it at all.
Keep in mind that the hospitalization data is probably the weakest data out of all the data. Some states don't report it at all.
Posted on 7/2/20 at 1:06 pm to Chromdome35
So it doesn't say covid is making it increase. Could be elective surgeries.
Posted on 7/2/20 at 3:10 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:
Got it. Is there a meaningful stat that tracks what we would care about in this regard - i.e. hospitals actually getting over-burdened?
As COVID hospitalizations rise (especially COVID ICU usage), that should prompt us to ask those systems for more information on the nature of that usage and whether there is a current crisis. Basically, it’s a flashing light to let us know to get more info. There’s no perfect data point that would let us know the ground situation at every hospital.
Instead, I’ve seen Texas journalists use the same data to extrapolate an apocalyptic nightmare, but they are suffering from the fatal conceit. The world is messy, and COVID data is messier. You can’t know everything that’s going on, and data will never give you the full picture.
Posted on 7/2/20 at 3:15 pm to Athanatos
quote:Based on your judgment of the current situation, where are there any flashing lights?
As COVID hospitalizations rise (especially COVID ICU usage), that should prompt us to ask those systems for more information on the nature of that usage and whether there is a current crisis. Basically, it’s a flashing light to let us know to get more info. There’s no perfect data point that would let us know the ground situation at every hospital.
Posted on 7/2/20 at 3:27 pm to Big Scrub TX
Maricopa County doesn’t look great. I don’t know anyone there, so I’m not informed on how stressed they really are.
It’s a small overall population, but Kings County, California doesn’t seem well suited to its outbreak in the local prison system.
It’s a small overall population, but Kings County, California doesn’t seem well suited to its outbreak in the local prison system.
Posted on 7/2/20 at 3:27 pm to Big Scrub TX
Are you wanting hospitalizations to go up because of Covid? Just wondering. Almost getting that feeling.
Posted on 7/2/20 at 3:35 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:
As COVID hospitalizations rise (especially COVID ICU usage), that should prompt us to ask those systems for more information on the nature of that usage and whether there is a current crisis.
Ask ANYONE in hospital admin and they'll tell you they LOVE 90% capacity.
My god, people don't get this. A hospital is 2 things: A place where people get fixed up in exchange for thousands of dollars, and a thousand dollar a night hotel.
They want BOTH sections FULL.
the only stat that should matter is % of covid patients in hospitals
This post was edited on 7/2/20 at 3:37 pm
Posted on 7/2/20 at 3:36 pm to Crimsonians
quote:
Are you wanting hospitalizations to go up because of Covid? Just wondering. Almost getting that feeling.
Hell yes he does. All Proggy filth wants it to go up. They cheer for the virus. It's what they do. It's also sad as hell.
This post was edited on 7/2/20 at 3:36 pm
Posted on 7/2/20 at 3:39 pm to Crimsonians
quote:That's your problem, not mine. I want to get the most accurate read on the situation I possibly can. I want the virus to go away yesterday. I want full employment again yesterday.
Are you wanting hospitalizations to go up because of Covid? Just wondering. Almost getting that feeling.
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