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re: Daily COVID Updated as of 11/2/20 8:00 PM
Posted on 6/30/20 at 9:34 pm to the808bass
Posted on 6/30/20 at 9:34 pm to the808bass
I also think the elephant in the room that your average person doesn't want to talk about or possibly that people don’t even realize is that COVID killed a large majority of the at-risk people it could the first time around.
Obviously there are certain factors in a person’s health that make them more susceptible to the virus; we know some of those factors now and will uncover more and more of them in the future with more research.
Your grandparents in a nursing home, old people with weakened immune systems out and about without a care in the world until April, older obese African-Americans in their 50s and 60s, etc. etc.
The fact could just be that a big chunk of those people are already dead.
Obviously there are certain factors in a person’s health that make them more susceptible to the virus; we know some of those factors now and will uncover more and more of them in the future with more research.
Your grandparents in a nursing home, old people with weakened immune systems out and about without a care in the world until April, older obese African-Americans in their 50s and 60s, etc. etc.
The fact could just be that a big chunk of those people are already dead.
This post was edited on 6/30/20 at 9:40 pm
1
Posted on 6/30/20 at 9:57 pm to Eat Your Crow
That’s what viruses do.
It’s really all that we can expect them to do.
It’s really all that we can expect them to do.
Posted on 7/1/20 at 1:47 am to the808bass
Sure. But we have a lot more than a couple hundred thousand really unhealthy people in this country.
Posted on 7/1/20 at 10:19 am to Powerman
Still no deaths spike in Florida. Numbers a little lower this week.
Arizona with a spike though for today.
Arizona with a spike though for today.
This post was edited on 7/1/20 at 10:27 am
Posted on 7/1/20 at 10:25 am to Powerman
quote:
But we have a lot more than a couple hundred thousand really unhealthy people in this country.
But viruses don’t indiscriminately take out all unhealthy people. They take out certain types of unhealthy people.
Posted on 7/1/20 at 11:27 am to the808bass
quote:
But viruses don’t indiscriminately take out all unhealthy people. They take out certain types of unhealthy people.
This!
Posted on 7/1/20 at 12:32 pm to Eat Your Crow
quote:
So the fact that they are still falling is a really good sign. If they fall week over week for one more week, we might be really in the clear.
Posted on 7/1/20 at 2:05 pm to Chromdome35
I've been playing around with the new case growth data trying to see if there was some way to correlate the rise in cases after 1) The rioting following GF's death and 2) States moving into Phase 2.
To accomplish this, I have been looking at the growth of the 7 Day average for new cases for a given day vs, the 7 day average from 14 days prior.
For example: For Florida, the 7 Day average for new cases yesterday was 6,990. 14 days ago, the 7 Day average for new cases was 2,016. The growth from 14 days ago until now is 4,975 cases per day which is equal to 246% growth
I calculated that for every day for every state and then heatmap'd the 20 states with the highest 14-day growth in the average number of cases. It looks like the heatmap below.
The 1st date is 5/25 (The date of GF's Death). The black boxes represent the date the state went into Phase 2. The Red Border cells are the date the numbers began to climb. The numbers across the top represent the number of days after George Floyd's death.
I'm not sure if I'm going to continue this analysis, I thought I would share it and see if anyone was interested or had thoughts.
To accomplish this, I have been looking at the growth of the 7 Day average for new cases for a given day vs, the 7 day average from 14 days prior.
For example: For Florida, the 7 Day average for new cases yesterday was 6,990. 14 days ago, the 7 Day average for new cases was 2,016. The growth from 14 days ago until now is 4,975 cases per day which is equal to 246% growth
I calculated that for every day for every state and then heatmap'd the 20 states with the highest 14-day growth in the average number of cases. It looks like the heatmap below.
The 1st date is 5/25 (The date of GF's Death). The black boxes represent the date the state went into Phase 2. The Red Border cells are the date the numbers began to climb. The numbers across the top represent the number of days after George Floyd's death.
I'm not sure if I'm going to continue this analysis, I thought I would share it and see if anyone was interested or had thoughts.
Posted on 7/1/20 at 3:22 pm to Chromdome35
Some may care. I don't. Cases mean jack shite.
Appreciate the work though.
Appreciate the work though.
This post was edited on 7/1/20 at 3:51 pm
Posted on 7/1/20 at 3:46 pm to Crimsonians
In Arkansas today, we had 212 more recoveries than new cases, and we are testing like crazy here.
Posted on 7/1/20 at 5:41 pm to Chromdome35
This is the link to the COVID-19 tracker that I have created and shared on Google Drive.
If you want to view the shared sheet, follow this link COVID-19 Tracker
If you want to download a copy of this sheet and manipulate it follow this link Downloadable COVID-19 Tracker
The source for the data is from https://covidtracking.com/data/
NOTE: For Wednesday 7/1 California did not submit numbers in time to make it into the tracking ecosystem. This caused Wednesday to be understated by almost 10K cases. The numbers have now been corrected.
New Cases by State
New Deaths by State
7-day average growth rate of new cases
If you want to view the shared sheet, follow this link COVID-19 Tracker
If you want to download a copy of this sheet and manipulate it follow this link Downloadable COVID-19 Tracker
The source for the data is from https://covidtracking.com/data/
NOTE: For Wednesday 7/1 California did not submit numbers in time to make it into the tracking ecosystem. This caused Wednesday to be understated by almost 10K cases. The numbers have now been corrected.
New Cases by State
New Deaths by State
7-day average growth rate of new cases
This post was edited on 7/2/20 at 9:29 am
Posted on 7/1/20 at 7:41 pm to Chromdome35
Can we also add a hospital bed tracker? Seems like they are nearing capacity in Houston, Yakima and maybe a county or two in California.
Posted on 7/1/20 at 7:48 pm to Big Scrub TX
Hospital beds is not a very valuable statistic because it’s not a fixed resource. Hospitals can remove elective procedures or transfer them to other facilities, can add surge capacity, and/or can go above surge capacity by reformatting non-ICU beds into ICU beds. Hospitals try to maximize ICU usage during the best of times from a fiscal perspective, so % utilized at any given time is not informative without a lot of context.
Don’t know about the others, but Baylor in Harris County is not really close to nominal capacity.
Don’t know about the others, but Baylor in Harris County is not really close to nominal capacity.
This post was edited on 7/1/20 at 7:53 pm
Posted on 7/1/20 at 8:26 pm to Chromdome35
First time we've had no numbers in the 700s in the 7 day average. Looks like we will hit below 500 - 7 day average tomorrow. Think that is a milestone worth noting.
Posted on 7/1/20 at 9:25 pm to Athanatos
quote:Got it. Is there a meaningful stat that tracks what we would care about in this regard - i.e. hospitals actually getting over-burdened?
Hospital beds is not a very valuable statistic because it’s not a fixed resource. Hospitals can remove elective procedures or transfer them to other facilities, can add surge capacity, and/or can go above surge capacity by reformatting non-ICU beds into ICU beds. Hospitals try to maximize ICU usage during the best of times from a fiscal perspective, so % utilized at any given time is not informative without a lot of context.
Don’t know about the others, but Baylor in Harris County is not really close to nominal capacity.
Posted on 7/1/20 at 9:32 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:
Is there a meaningful stat that tracks what we would care about in this regard - i.e. hospitals actually getting over-burdened?
No, because that concern has been dead for months.
Posted on 7/1/20 at 10:47 pm to Athanatos
quote:
Hospital beds is not a very valuable statistic because it’s not a fixed resource. Hospitals can remove elective procedures or transfer them to other facilities, can add surge capacity, and/or can go above surge capacity by reformatting non-ICU beds into ICU beds.
Accurate. At our hospital our surge capacity plan more than doubled our regular ICU capacity, suspended elective procedures, and utilized anesthesia machines as additional ventilators. We never even approached more than 1/4 of our regular ICU capacity with COVID positive patients at our peak.
Posted on 7/1/20 at 11:38 pm to Big Scrub TX
Its on the tracker...
Posted on 7/2/20 at 12:27 am to Athanatos
quote:I went back and re-read what you wrote and this caught my eye. I don't find that exactly comforting. "Elective" procedures seems like it was pretty broad back in March. A friend of mine missed being able to have a hernia operation by just a few days. I never would have thought of that as "elective" but he is only now being scheduled to finally have it. It's been a brutal stretch for him.
Hospitals can remove elective procedures
Posted on 7/2/20 at 12:32 am to Big Scrub TX
quote:
I went back and re-read what you wrote and this caught my eye. I don't find that exactly comforting. "Elective" procedures seems like it was pretty broad back in March. A friend of mine missed being able to have a hernia operation by just a few days. I never would have thought of that as "elective" but he is only now being scheduled to finally have it. It's been a brutal stretch for him.
Friend of mine had to have her back surgery postponed for over 2 months and was finally able to get it done in the window where it was allowed.
When I think elective I'm thinking something like plastic surgery or weight loss surgery
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