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Started By
Message
re: Daily COVID Updated as of 11/2/20 8:00 PM
Posted on 3/17/20 at 11:06 pm to bfniii
Posted on 3/17/20 at 11:06 pm to bfniii
quote:
the actual numbers do not support the hysterical reaction
The point to IBs projection is even if only 5% of known cases require hospitalization, we exceed capacity within a month. If it’s higher than 5%, we exceed it sooner.
You can adjust growth rate, and hospitalization % up or down, and all you do is move the date at which our hospitals can’t keep up.
It happened in SK, Italy, China, and likely Iran.
If this social distancing doesn’t work, or it’s too late, it will happen here too.
This is what our public officials are trying to prevent
This post was edited on 3/17/20 at 11:08 pm
1
Posted on 3/17/20 at 11:10 pm to I B Freeman
quote:
Down voters do the math if you do not believe that the 6482 growing at 37.8%a day is not millions in three weeks.
Last week we were testing 2500 a day. This week we are testing 10000-50000 a day. The growth rate should spike.
Posted on 3/17/20 at 11:23 pm to I B Freeman
quote:
Ours as we see has become quite authoritarian too.
politicians have too much power and have forgotten for whom they work for. They see their position as a hierarchy and it's time to take them down a peg.
Posted on 3/17/20 at 11:25 pm to bfniii
quote:
The Death Rate is about the same
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the hard numbers suggest otherwise
quote:
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It is just that more people that aren't on deaths door are being diagnosed.
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which brings down the mortality rate
Better reporting of actual cases and deaths does not change the percentage of people that die when contracting the virus. It only changes the % of people that die vs known cases.
Initially you had to be in ICU to get tested. If you had mild symptoms you never got tested. So people that didn't come close to dying were never counted.
So yeah, the % of people confirmed to have it and then died early on was much higher than the % of people that have it confirmed now and will die. But that doesn't make the virus more deadly, just more accurate numbers.
Posted on 3/17/20 at 11:40 pm to BobBoucher
quote:link? i'm pretty sure that's not true. not to mention your numbers don't match reality. they're purely speculative
even if only 5% of known cases require hospitalization, we exceed capacity within a month
quote:we have had worse outbreaks and no one, NO ONE was talking about the healthcare system being "overloaded."
You can adjust growth rate, and hospitalization % up or down, and all you do is move the date at which our hospitals can’t keep up
Posted on 3/17/20 at 11:52 pm to bfniii
quote:
link? i'm pretty sure that's not true. not to mention your numbers don't match reality. they're purely speculative
LINK
quote:
we have had worse outbreaks and no one, NO ONE was talking about the healthcare system being "overloaded."
Health services were overloaded in SK, China, Italy (all whom have more beds per 1000 than the Us) and Iran (likely).
Read the article.
This post was edited on 3/17/20 at 11:52 pm
Posted on 3/18/20 at 12:08 am to BobBoucher
quote:
Health services were overloaded in SK, China, Italy (all whom have more beds per 1000 than the Us) and Iran (likely).
Bob beats that drum. Beat that drum, Bob! The end is near!
Posted on 3/18/20 at 12:20 am to I B Freeman
quote:
Down voters do the math if you do not believe that the 6482 growing at 37.8%a day is not millions in three weeks.
The number of known cases is increasing because more people are being tested which is not the same as the number of people being infected increasing. We have no way of knowing the total number of people infected so trying to extrapolate the possible number of future cases is a futile exercise.
Posted on 3/18/20 at 5:53 am to I B Freeman
quote:Sure, in a vacuum, ~6500 growing at 38% daily will be over a million in 3 weeks. But unless testing capacity increases by at least that much daily, the positive results can’t keep up that rate.
Down voters do the math if you do not believe that the 6482 growing at 37.8%a day is not millions in three weeks
For example, there would be a daily increase of 225,000 cases from day 14 to day 15 in your example. But we are testing far less than that everyday, so the math does not work.
The 38% will slow down significantly when we hit testing capacity.
Posted on 3/18/20 at 6:56 am to Green Chili Tiger
quote:
They should just ditch that "Serious Cases"column.
I don't know about "ditch" but we need better explanation, for sure.
Are they progressing through testing folks who are emergent and then the test comes through and they're adding them as a new case and a new death (therefore closed) and never adding it as a serious case (which I believe is the possible data glitch here)?
In that case, as the confirmation rate rises, the serious case stat should be more helpful going forward - right now the lag is making that less useful.
This post was edited on 3/18/20 at 6:57 am
Posted on 3/18/20 at 7:49 am to Ace Midnight
This is like ground hog day.
This post was edited on 3/18/20 at 7:53 am
Posted on 3/18/20 at 9:13 am to Chromdome35
Over 800 new cases reported today and it's only 9am CST.
We could see over 3000 new cases today.
We could see over 3000 new cases today.
Posted on 3/18/20 at 9:45 am to Chromdome35
Not really a surprise to me personally. I mean we finally have a shite ton of tests available.
Posted on 3/18/20 at 10:07 am to Chromdome35
When is next update?
Posted on 3/18/20 at 10:13 am to Chromdome35
quote:
We could see over 3000 new cases today.
As expected with more testing and we will hopefully see the death rate continue to fall.
Would be nice if they would add a “# of patients in the hospital” so we can see if it’s flooding the system which is what we were told this shutdown was set up to avoid.
Posted on 3/18/20 at 10:31 am to dsides
90% of which are in NY or WA
Posted on 3/18/20 at 10:52 am to Rebel
Rebel, I will probably update the numbers mid afternoon.
Posted on 3/18/20 at 11:02 am to Chromdome35
I was scared the Kabul got you since this thread hasn’t been updated yet.
Posted on 3/18/20 at 11:04 am to Jack Daniel
22 cases at a nursing home in DuPage Illinois.
Posted on 3/18/20 at 11:06 am to BobBoucher
Why would you even bother to link that article? It was terrible. Purely speculative, making comparisons to China and sk.
quote:again, silly.
Health services were overloaded in SK, China, Italy (all whom have more beds per 1000 than the Us) and Iran (likely).
Read the article.
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