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Message
re: Daily COVID Updated as of 11/2/20 8:00 PM
Posted on 4/7/20 at 5:23 pm to the808bass
Posted on 4/7/20 at 5:23 pm to the808bass
Try to hang with me here...
The number of new tests by day (Column heading 1 above) at a roughly 18% positive rate is yielding new positive tests (Column heading 2 above). The total case metric is a result of how many new cases were added each day (Column Heading 3 above). You can see by comparing columns 2 and 3 above they track closely.
Look at the daily number of new cases for the last few days, it's hovering around 30Kish. This is because the number of daily tests is hovering as well. Because the testing is constrained, the daily growth numbers of new cases are limited to roughly 18% of the tests given.
The reason the growth rate of new cases is slowing is that the testing is constrained.
Another way to think of this, if testing remained fixed at 150K tests a day for the next 7 days, the daily growth rate of new cases will be about 27K per day. Since the total cases are going up every day and the new cases are staying the same, the daily growth rate will decrease every day. It doesn't mean the actual growth rate of cases is declining, it just means we're testing 150K people a day who are 18% positive
The number of new tests by day (Column heading 1 above) at a roughly 18% positive rate is yielding new positive tests (Column heading 2 above). The total case metric is a result of how many new cases were added each day (Column Heading 3 above). You can see by comparing columns 2 and 3 above they track closely.
Look at the daily number of new cases for the last few days, it's hovering around 30Kish. This is because the number of daily tests is hovering as well. Because the testing is constrained, the daily growth numbers of new cases are limited to roughly 18% of the tests given.
The reason the growth rate of new cases is slowing is that the testing is constrained.
Another way to think of this, if testing remained fixed at 150K tests a day for the next 7 days, the daily growth rate of new cases will be about 27K per day. Since the total cases are going up every day and the new cases are staying the same, the daily growth rate will decrease every day. It doesn't mean the actual growth rate of cases is declining, it just means we're testing 150K people a day who are 18% positive
This post was edited on 4/7/20 at 5:44 pm
2
Posted on 4/7/20 at 5:46 pm to Chromdome35
That makes sense, but like inglorious said, could testing be slowing because fewer people are showing symptoms (or at least a slower rate of increase in people showing symptoms)?
Posted on 4/7/20 at 5:54 pm to ValDawgsta
quote:
could testing be slowing because fewer people are
Testing isn't slowing.
The last 4 days have been the highest 4 days, all between 138k and 200k+.
My guess is now that states are relaxing their testing rules those numbers will increase to 250k-300k daily.
Cases will continue to rise, but probably the rate (~19%) will drop because we will be testing people without symptoms.
This post was edited on 4/7/20 at 5:56 pm
Posted on 4/7/20 at 6:02 pm to Jinglebob
quote:
My guess is now that states are relaxing their testing rules
Someone with Ochsner here (or in the OT sticky) said that no symptoms are required to be tested. Does not apply to Lafayette General (I asked specifically).
Posted on 4/7/20 at 6:07 pm to Chromdome35
Yes. Total tests versus new positives/new cases.
Posted on 4/7/20 at 6:08 pm to Ingloriousbastard
Less than an hour to go before it closes for the day. So far so good about seeing a nice drop in new confirmed cases even with more testing being done. We will see where it finishes.
Posted on 4/7/20 at 6:26 pm to uppermidwestbama
quote:
Well, Dr. Birx just said it. Anyone in U.S. who dies with Covid 19, regardless of what else may be wrong, is now being recorded as a Covid 19 death.
Brit Hume just tweeted this out.
Is this the same for flu, pneumonia, and other virus deaths? If not this is inflating the number of deaths
Posted on 4/7/20 at 6:30 pm to Magician2
I heard Dr. Brix say it live. It’s what we’ve known all along.
Will be interesting to see if they retroactively adjust these #s.
Will be interesting to see if they retroactively adjust these #s.
Posted on 4/7/20 at 6:32 pm to Magician2
IIRC they use this same international standard for all other pathogens as well.
Posted on 4/7/20 at 6:35 pm to thetigerman
Yeah, the death numbers are going to be pretty misleading. A heart attach for a person with COVID19 gets listed as a death to COVID19 right now.
The only data that is worth paying to attention to is the decrease in new cases. Death numbers will drop as a default.
The only data that is worth paying to attention to is the decrease in new cases. Death numbers will drop as a default.
Posted on 4/7/20 at 6:38 pm to uppermidwestbama
In other news, China lifted all travel restrictions that were in place for the city of Wuhan today.
Posted on 4/7/20 at 6:41 pm to uppermidwestbama
I don't know why you'd say that was misleading. If COVID-19 helped along a heart attack that wouldn't have happened unless he had the disease I'd say the virus caused it. Even if someone had a heart attack and didn't have the disease but couldn't get treatment because the hospitals were full with virus patients, I'd say that was a virus death.
Posted on 4/7/20 at 6:44 pm to Veritas
quote:
heard Dr. Brix say it live. It’s what we’ve known all along.
So an electrician receives what turns out to be a fatal shock, gets DOA'd at the hospital, screened for COVID post mortem and tests +'ve.
He gets included in th CV death count? What a f'n joke statistic.
Posted on 4/7/20 at 6:47 pm to auburn32
Not exactly a chicken or the egg kind of situation, but it is similar.
Posted on 4/7/20 at 6:47 pm to auburn32
quote:
Even if someone had a heart attack and didn't have the disease but couldn't get treatment because the hospitals were full with virus patients, I'd say that was a virus death.
Someone whose ambulance gets stuck at a RR crossing and doesn't make it in time wasn't killed by a train.
Posted on 4/7/20 at 6:50 pm to reverendotis
Are they testing car accident victims for Covid? Or are we just going with wild speculation in place of anything else?
Posted on 4/7/20 at 6:58 pm to the808bass
No idea.
The example given was a heart attack victim who is CV +'ve is being rung up as a Covid fatality even if cardiac arrest is what really killed them.
The example given was a heart attack victim who is CV +'ve is being rung up as a Covid fatality even if cardiac arrest is what really killed them.
Posted on 4/7/20 at 7:16 pm to Veritas
So if I die in the er of a gunshot wound they’ll test me for covid and attribute my death to that if I’m positive as opposed to a gun violence death??
(Sorry I didn’t read the replies above mine)
(Sorry I didn’t read the replies above mine)
This post was edited on 4/7/20 at 7:19 pm
Posted on 4/7/20 at 7:17 pm to auburn32
How would you know whether or not covid helped the heart attack along? Not arguing just inquiring.
Posted on 4/7/20 at 7:23 pm to reverendotis
It is very likely that the number of deaths will go up when the CDC finishes its analysis, not down.
LINK
More people are dying at home and not being counted. Right now it's probably mainly NY where this is a big factor, but if other areas get overwhelmed the same thing would happen there too.
LINK
quote:
But another 200 city residents are now dying at home each day, compared to 20 to 25 such deaths before the pandemic, said Aja Worthy-Davis, a spokeswoman for the medical examiner’s office. And an untold number of them are unconfirmed.
That’s because the ME’s office is not testing dead bodies for COVID-19. Instead, they’re referring suspected cases to the city’s health department as “probable.”
“If someone dies at home, and we go to the home and there [are] signs of influenza, our medical examiner may determine the cause of death was clearly an influenza-like illness, potentially COVID or an influenza-like illness believed to be COVID,” said Worthy-Davis. “We report all our deaths citywide to the health department, who releases that data to the public.”
But the health department does not include that number in the official count unless it is confirmed, a spokesman said.
More people are dying at home and not being counted. Right now it's probably mainly NY where this is a big factor, but if other areas get overwhelmed the same thing would happen there too.
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