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re: Daily COVID Updated as of 11/2/20 8:00 PM
Posted on 4/5/20 at 11:40 am to Chromdome35
Posted on 4/5/20 at 11:40 am to Chromdome35
This is the link to the COVID-19 Country tracker that I have shared on Google Drive. Chromdome's COVID-19 Daily Tracker
This is the link to the US state level tracker that I have shared via Google Drive. Chromdome's State Level COVID-19 Daily Tracker
On the state level tracker the states I have available right now are listed below. I will be adding additional states in the coming days.
Arkansas, Louisiana, New York, Georgia, Florida, California
The source for the data is https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
The source for the testing data is from https://covidtracking.com/data/
On the tracker sheet you will see tabs for the following data:
1) US Summary
2) Country Comparables: This shows you how the US stacks up vs. select other countries dealing with COVID-19
3) Logarithmic Comparisons - Shows the US vs the other countries on the tracker.
4) Covid Vs Other Outbreaks - Compares the current COVID numbers to the last 10 years of flue and H1N1
5) US Weighted Averages - Explores 7 day vs 3 day weight average trends
6) Italy Summary
7) UK Summary
8) France Summary
9) Germany Summary
10) Sweden Summary
11) World Summary
NOTE: The daily growth rate data will not be accurate until the end of the day's postings. It will change throughout the day.
NOTE: I am not tracking individual states, I don't have a reliable consistent source for that data.
NOTE: I am not a mathematician, statistics guru, scientist, sharpest tack in the box, I'm just a guy who likes to understand for myself what is happening and to share it with others. This thread was not created to debate if you should or shouldn't take this seriously, it is simply to present the numbers and foster conversation.
NOTE: I have added a prediction number to the bottom of the data grid. This simply takes the previous days numbers and grows them at the previous day's growth rate. It should give the viewer some idea of what the numbers will look like today. Obviously, the final number for the day will be higher or lower based on what today's growth rate actualy is. This is just a simple indicator.
This is the link to the US state level tracker that I have shared via Google Drive. Chromdome's State Level COVID-19 Daily Tracker
On the state level tracker the states I have available right now are listed below. I will be adding additional states in the coming days.
Arkansas, Louisiana, New York, Georgia, Florida, California
The source for the data is https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
The source for the testing data is from https://covidtracking.com/data/
On the tracker sheet you will see tabs for the following data:
1) US Summary
2) Country Comparables: This shows you how the US stacks up vs. select other countries dealing with COVID-19
3) Logarithmic Comparisons - Shows the US vs the other countries on the tracker.
4) Covid Vs Other Outbreaks - Compares the current COVID numbers to the last 10 years of flue and H1N1
5) US Weighted Averages - Explores 7 day vs 3 day weight average trends
6) Italy Summary
7) UK Summary
8) France Summary
9) Germany Summary
10) Sweden Summary
11) World Summary
NOTE: The daily growth rate data will not be accurate until the end of the day's postings. It will change throughout the day.
NOTE: I am not tracking individual states, I don't have a reliable consistent source for that data.
NOTE: I am not a mathematician, statistics guru, scientist, sharpest tack in the box, I'm just a guy who likes to understand for myself what is happening and to share it with others. This thread was not created to debate if you should or shouldn't take this seriously, it is simply to present the numbers and foster conversation.
NOTE: I have added a prediction number to the bottom of the data grid. This simply takes the previous days numbers and grows them at the previous day's growth rate. It should give the viewer some idea of what the numbers will look like today. Obviously, the final number for the day will be higher or lower based on what today's growth rate actualy is. This is just a simple indicator.
2
Posted on 4/5/20 at 11:41 am to Tiguar
Daily growth rate in the United States for deaths for past week is ~1.2. That's 10% lower than prior 2 weeks.
This post was edited on 4/5/20 at 11:42 am
Posted on 4/5/20 at 11:42 am to Tiguar
I THINK treatments for CF have taken some major steps forward in the last couple of years, too.
Posted on 4/5/20 at 11:44 am to uppermidwestbama
quote:
Daily growth rate in the United States for deaths for past week is ~1.2. That's 10% lower than prior 2 weeks.
We are slowly approaching the peak for deaths/day. Likely in the next week or two, according to most models.
This post was edited on 4/5/20 at 11:45 am
Posted on 4/5/20 at 11:44 am to Eat Your Crow
They have but they are very specific for CF. There are gene therapy “pills” that essentially alter your genetic expression to change how your cells secrete chloride if you have certain types of CF. Life altering for a lot of patients
Posted on 4/5/20 at 11:44 am to Tiguar
quote:Try Twitter. Seriously, a lot of docs on there discussing treatment strategies.
I don’t want to ask a respiratory therapist to go in and give mucomyst without justification because nebulization is a high transmission risk activity. It would be nice to at least feel like I’m not out in left field
Posted on 4/5/20 at 11:46 am to Tiguar
quote:
They have but they are very specific for CF. There are gene therapy “pills” that essentially alter your genetic expression to change how your cells secrete chloride if you have certain types of CF. Life altering for a lot of patients
Gotcha. I thought it was some sort of pill or drug that my friend now takes. Thanks.
This post was edited on 4/5/20 at 11:47 am
Posted on 4/5/20 at 12:10 pm to Chromdome35
We’re converging on a confirmed CFR of 3%. Yes, I know it’s lower. That’s higher than I expected our confirmed rate to be.
Posted on 4/5/20 at 12:16 pm to the808bass
quote:
We’re converging on a confirmed CFR of 3%. Yes, I know it’s lower. That’s higher than I expected our confirmed rate to be.
We're just turning too many people away from testing because they don't meet an at risk demographic.
Posted on 4/5/20 at 12:27 pm to uppermidwestbama
quote:putting a band aid on an elephant. the social distancing has done little more than nothing. if that weren't the case, cali would be getting pummeled because they had so much contact with asia and have been poor at social distancing until the beaches were finally closed. same with fla.
This is the week that you will see the results from social distancing
looking at it from the opposite perspective, nyc has been advancing social measures and they are one of the worst places on the planet
regardless, it doesn't matter. this virus doesn't have an expiration date and will be waiting when people come out of hiding. we have to face up to it and build up immunity. all this is doing is destroying the economy that supports the hospitals.
Posted on 4/5/20 at 12:34 pm to dafif
quote:what's lost in this is the preponderance of the target demographic in fla - senior citizens. fla should be getting destroyed right now a la n. italy, especially given the fact that people really aren't practicing social measures
FLORIDA-Current
11545 total cases
1470 hospital admissions
195 deaths.
Point 1 - clearly no hospital overload
Point 2 1.68% death rate
Point 3 apporx 6700 cases in Palm Beach, Ft Laud and Miami
Posted on 4/5/20 at 12:38 pm to Tiguar
quote:and this is a great perspective. at some point, we have to come out of hiding and face up to it, even seniors.
Does anyone think we’re at the point that, if you don’t have coronavirus now, your risk is lower than it was last week? If not, I wonder what the stats would start to look like to definitively say that.
It would be nice to think if you didn’t lose the lottery yet, you probably won’t
now, it's said the virus can travel more than 20ft in the air. you have a choice, move to the moon and grow your own food or live your life. go see your grandchildren with what time you have left. are you just going to sit at home for the rest of your natural life?
eta: i should add that i'm not advising seniors to just go out en masse right now. certainly wait a bit for some treatments to develop but, other than that, there's no reason for humanity to go underground
This post was edited on 4/5/20 at 12:45 pm
Posted on 4/5/20 at 12:40 pm to the808bass
quote:
We’re converging on a confirmed CFR of 3%. Yes, I know it’s lower. That’s higher than I expected our confirmed rate to be.
I'm watching this as well. I have to assume this is because they are focusing the testing on those for whom it will make a difference in treatment, still bypassing those with very mild symptoms.
It still boils down to 2 things though:
1. This bug isn't really as infectious as it was made out to be, or
2. It isn't as lethal
So, as the CFR creeps up (suggesting #2 isn't supportable), then we have to look at 1. We probably won't know for 6 months to a year after they study the surveillance and antibody testing.
Posted on 4/5/20 at 12:43 pm to Ace Midnight
quote:even this needs context. for senior citizens, it is quite lethal. for everyone else, it's basically nothing. heck, most people don't even know they have it.
1. This bug isn't really as infectious as it was made out to be, or
2. It isn't as lethal
Posted on 4/5/20 at 1:14 pm to bfniii
quote:
for senior citizens, it is quite lethal
Quite lethal compared to the flu. Not quite lethal compared to MERS or Ebola.
I wonder what the 1-year mortality will look like compared to a hip fracture.
Posted on 4/5/20 at 1:31 pm to Eat Your Crow
quote:
I THINK treatments for CF have taken some major steps forward in the last couple of years, too.
Yes. A friend of mine has a son with CF .. 18 yo maybe .. who is doing great. There have been new drugs approved and others in trial. I know that the mom has been a real advocate and I'm so glad that there are options for them.
Posted on 4/5/20 at 1:33 pm to bfniii
quote:
what's lost in this is the preponderance of the target demographic in fla - senior citizens. fla should be getting destroyed right now a la n. italy, especially given the fact that people really aren't practicing social measures
Perhaps some of them are taking vitamin D, C and zinc? Haven't there been studies to show that these can help? They certainly can help with immune system.
Posted on 4/5/20 at 1:57 pm to Chromdome35
Posted on 4/5/20 at 2:07 pm to Tiguar
Thats great stuff!
Posted on 4/5/20 at 2:08 pm to tiger91
The CDC breaks down data by age groups. You can see the huge drop in numbers by age. I picked below 45 years based on that.
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