re: Daily COVID Updated as of 11/2/20 8:00 PM

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I think patients are no longer contagious around day 10.

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I read somewhere these patients shed RNA chunks for quite a few days after but it's not infectious, so thats why they test positive off and on

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NJ reporting just over 3300 new cases and 37 new deaths.

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PA came in with 668....the exact number they had yesterday too.

If they end the day at 668, I'm going to venture a guess 668 is their testing capacity or something else is limiting reporting.

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PA came in with 668....the exact number they had yesterday too.

If they end the day at 668, I'm going to venture a guess 668 is their testing capacity or something else is limiting reporting.

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Lab results from some of the private labs are taking up to 7 days. Unfortunately that means there are a ton of positive numbers that have not been reported.

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Lab results from some of the private labs are taking up to 7 days. Unfortunately that means there are a ton of positive numbers that have not been reported.

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lol.

Today's numbers show that only 7.8% of the new test are coming back positive.

Only 21 more hospitalizations.

That's a bunch of good news.


What computers don't seem to have programmed in is the concept of "low hanging fruit". Some people, for what ever reason are more likely to get the disease. So there is some metric that says that ever new exposure is less likely to become a carrier.

eta: LINK

Chicken, the table at the top of my posts is static (it doesn't update when I update the underlying data, I have to do a screenshot and post it as an image). Therefore I only update it a few times a day. The data in the linked google sheet always matches.

This is the link to the COVID-19 tracker that I have shared on Google Drive. Chromdome's COVID-19 Daily Tracker

The source for the data is https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
The source for the testing data is from https://covidtracking.com/data/

On the tracker sheet you will see tabs for the following data:
1) US Summary
2) Country Comparables: This shows you how the US stacks up vs. select other countries dealing with COVID-19
3) Logarithmic Comparisons - Shows the US vs the other countries on the tracker.
4) Covid Vs Other Outbreaks - Compares the current COVID numbers to the last 10 years of flue and H1N1
5) US Weighted Averages - Explores 7 day vs 3 day weight average trends
6) Italy Summary
7) UK Summary
8) France Summary
9) Germany Summary
10) Sweden Summary
11) World Summary

NOTE: The daily growth rate data will not be accurate until the end of the day's postings. It will change throughout the day.
NOTE: I am not tracking individual states, I don't have a reliable consistent source for that data.
NOTE: I am not a mathematician, statistics guru, scientist, sharpest tack in the box, I'm just a guy who likes to understand for myself what is happening and to share it with others. This thread was not created to debate if you should or shouldn't take this seriously, it is simply to present the numbers and foster conversation.


I changed the formating of the numbers in the table to reflect positive movements (Green) vs negative movements (Red). This will allow you to quickly see how the numbers are moving.

The growth rate of new cases is dropping a lot over the last two weeks and if you took out the NCY death numbers, the death rate is dropping too.

Over the next month it's going to come down to how well Florida, Texas, Chicago, New Orleans, California and Maryland/VA do to slow down the spread or keep it in control.

California is at a key moment these next two weeks. Temps are in the 60's and 70's for many days to come and that will help. They have only had 6,424 confirmed casses with only 133 deaths.

That is a 2 percent date rate.

If California gets out of this next week without a huge spike in numbers I bet we will not see a massive growth out west since Washington has things under control.

Missouri reports each day at around 3 PM. I wonder if other states are similar.

I suspect because of the lag, the cases per day are being increased retrospectively and have been for a while. So a 3pm cutout is reasonable since they are possibly getting results from testing spread back over 2 weeks. (Look at the log graph with overlay of daily positive tests to daily deaths. The columns had been side by side if you look a week back, now the blue graph is higher because they have been adding to the daily totals).
Now, once Abbott’s point of testing, results in 5 minutes starts to get more use, the daily numbers will be more meaningful for real time estimates