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Posted on 9/14/20 at 9:12 pm to dafif
Subtract the deaths that aren’t really Covid deaths. Divide by 3.
You’ll end up around 0.5-0.75.
You’ll end up around 0.5-0.75.
Posted on 9/14/20 at 10:07 pm to Chromdome35
Just want to say thanks again for continuing to update us on the national numbers. I motion for Chicken to send you a td coozie or shirt for your service.
Posted on 9/15/20 at 7:56 am to dafif
quote:
Still having a difficult time grasping a mortality rate around 3%. Seems way high for me.
Recall testing favors more serious cases and disfavors asymptomatic and mild cases.
Now that they are testing everyone and everything, the CFR should continue to decline. I remain convinced the actual IFR is going to settle into a 0.4 to 0.6 % range.
No one will care that it is more like a powerful strain of the seasonal influenza than the Spanish Flu, but it is already obvious that it is true. This is why politics and science don't mix.
This post was edited on 9/15/20 at 7:57 am
Posted on 9/15/20 at 2:53 pm to Chromdome35
Cases and deaths are dropping hard even with heavy testing.
Posted on 9/15/20 at 2:56 pm to dafif
quote:
having a difficult time grasping a mortality rate around 3%. Seems way high for me.
Because I think for the 90 year old plus group it's got a much more severe mortality rate of something like 6-10%. It's anchoring the average. We see the news stories talking about college kids, but it's still creeping its way through nursing homes and when it gets there it is still pretty rough.
Posted on 9/15/20 at 6:03 pm to Ace Midnight
I think it’s going to settle in lower, actually.
We know way more regarding how to treat this than we did just a few months ago and virus’ generally mutate to be weaker/more contagious as they progress.
I’m seeing a lot more incidental covid positives in elderly than I was before. Lots of >70 that are just confused/sob like a flu rather than knocking on deaths door.
We know way more regarding how to treat this than we did just a few months ago and virus’ generally mutate to be weaker/more contagious as they progress.
I’m seeing a lot more incidental covid positives in elderly than I was before. Lots of >70 that are just confused/sob like a flu rather than knocking on deaths door.
This post was edited on 9/15/20 at 6:04 pm
Posted on 9/15/20 at 7:01 pm to Chromdome35
This is the link to the COVID-19 tracker that I have created and shared on Google Drive.
If you want to view the shared sheet, follow this link COVID-19 Tracker
If you want to download a copy of this sheet and manipulate it follow this link Downloadable COVID-19 Tracker
The source for the data is from https://covidtracking.com/data/
7 Day Average Growth of New Cases by State
7 Day Average Growth of Deaths by State
7-day average Positivity Rate
If you want to view the shared sheet, follow this link COVID-19 Tracker
If you want to download a copy of this sheet and manipulate it follow this link Downloadable COVID-19 Tracker
The source for the data is from https://covidtracking.com/data/
7 Day Average Growth of New Cases by State
7 Day Average Growth of Deaths by State
7-day average Positivity Rate
This post was edited on 9/15/20 at 7:03 pm
Posted on 9/15/20 at 7:26 pm to Chromdome35
What happened to the positivity rate from 9/14? It wasn’t showing that high yesterday.
Posted on 9/15/20 at 8:04 pm to Rocco Lampone
That was exactly my question. The testing number went from 700k down to 400k.
Posted on 9/15/20 at 8:39 pm to Ace Midnight
quote:
No one will care that it is more like a powerful strain of the seasonal influenza than the Spanish Flu, but it is already obvious that it is true. This is why politics and science don't mix.
I don’t know if comparing a 100 year old flu to today’s Covid-19 is a fair comparison. Public health has come a long way since then.
Covid-19 has resulted in about 920,000 global deaths compared to 150,000-550,000 for H1N1 which is often averaged to 300k. So Covid-19 will end up globally 4-5x more lethal than H1N1.
This isn’t a bad flu season. The US has averaged 38k flu deaths from 2010-2018 per CDC. We are at 199k Covid deaths. Even if we take the highest year of 61k and subtract that, we are still 3x that amount with 3.5 months to go. At our current pace, we will end the year in the 250-275k range for deaths or 4x the highest flu outbreak in the last decade and 6.5x our average year.
I agree; politics and science don’t mix.
This post was edited on 9/15/20 at 8:42 pm
Posted on 9/15/20 at 9:08 pm to B4YOU
quote:
At our current pace
Is a nonsensical phrase. There’s no average pace to a virus over the course of months.
Posted on 9/15/20 at 9:12 pm to Volsfan82169
Not sure will research it tonight when I have time
Posted on 9/15/20 at 11:09 pm to the808bass
quote:
Is a nonsensical phrase. There’s no average pace to a virus over the course of months.
It seems weird that you take issue with this phrase. It doesn’t significantly change the other statements made. So what’s the point?
CDC is projecting that 205-217k total deaths will be reported Oct 4. We are at 200k with 19 days to go. We will be in the top end around 212-215k. I suspect football, election, and Thanksgiving are going to result in a very bad December. I also think we will stay in the 750-1k range for daily deaths.
Posted on 9/15/20 at 11:19 pm to B4YOU
quote:
This isn’t a bad flu season. The US has averaged 38k flu deaths from 2010-2018 per CDC. We are at 199k Covid deaths. Even if we take the highest year of 61k and subtract that, we are still 3x that amount with 3.5 months to go. At our current pace, we will end the year in the 250-275k range for deaths or 4x the highest flu outbreak in the last decade and 6.5x our average year.
I agree; politics and science don’t mix.
Not terribly consistent in this post.
Posted on 9/15/20 at 11:22 pm to B4YOU
quote:
I also think we will stay in the 750-1k range for daily deaths.
You do realize we aren’t having 750-1000 deaths/day? Most days, a decent percentage of deaths recorded are from death certificate “matching” from 1-3 months ago.
We had our peak day of deaths months ago. We haven’t got close to it again. We’re in the rural community spread phase of the disease.
Posted on 9/16/20 at 12:19 am to Volsfan82169
The issue appears to be data frickery from Texas. They are now showing -336K tests for yesterday. You won't see it in my state dashboard for texas, as my process zeros out all the big negative numbers to keep it from screwing up the charts.
Posted on 9/16/20 at 4:36 pm to Chromdome35
So what is the deal with the deaths from yesterday? I'm listening to dumbass MSNBC talking about we had 1300 deaths yesterday. But were the deaths from months ago? If so, can somebody gimme a link to something that explains that? I am trying to combat misinformation. TIA.
Very frustrating to listen to these assholes just go on about things they don't understand.
Very frustrating to listen to these assholes just go on about things they don't understand.
Posted on 9/16/20 at 4:44 pm to baybeefeetz
quote:
The 7-day average for deaths increased yesterday and will spike up today due to the Labor Day effects. But there is no cause for alarm. The average should fall again starting on Wednesday and we'll likely reach an average of around 750 deaths per day by the weekend.
Posted on 9/16/20 at 4:52 pm to Athanatos
How the hell does Arkansas have over 130 deaths today?
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