- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
re: Coronavirus has now killed more Americans in 1 month than flu killed in entire year
Posted on 4/19/20 at 4:29 pm to musick
Posted on 4/19/20 at 4:29 pm to musick
quote:
Coronavirus has infected, at least, 742,459 people in the United States. That means it has a death rate of over 5%, which is more than 50 times the flu if its current death rate holds.
So it is deadlier but not nearly as contagious, since we know 10s of millions of people got the flu COUNTRYWIDE, not just a few densely populated areas or places that recently held HUGE festivals like Mardi Gras and St. Patrick's Day parades.
Old, fat, immune-compromised people need to stay home and let the rest of us get on with our lives.
0
Posted on 4/19/20 at 4:29 pm to Apollyon
quote:
If up to 50% of those infected are asymptomatic/mildly symptomatic carriers who do not seek testing.... what is your mortality rate
It's mortality rate is likely similar to the flu....but it spreads much faster and easier. The fact that asymptomatic people can so easily spread it makes it dangerous to vulnerable populations.
This post was edited on 4/19/20 at 4:31 pm
Posted on 4/19/20 at 4:31 pm to buckeye_vol
Also the rate at which deaths are reported has already peaked. Doesn't bode well for your fear mongering.
Nor does the fact that around 50% of American deaths have occurred in a single metropolitan area....
Your pandemic sucks at killing.
Nor does the fact that around 50% of American deaths have occurred in a single metropolitan area....
Your pandemic sucks at killing.
This post was edited on 4/19/20 at 4:32 pm
Posted on 4/19/20 at 4:32 pm to Apollyon
quote:Totally different conversation. The sooner people realize that, the sooner we can get on with it.
Justify the shutdown using these numbers.
Go
Posted on 4/19/20 at 4:32 pm to dewster
I understand R0 well, thanks.
Posted on 4/19/20 at 4:33 pm to Korkstand
quote:
Totally different conversation. The sooner people realize that, the sooner we can get on with it.
No it isn't.
Now tell me what I don't understand.
Posted on 4/19/20 at 4:34 pm to Apollyon
quote:I don't see buckeye so much as hinting at a final death total, much less an "astronomical" one.
The numbers of dead will not rise to any astronomical level you suppose.
Fact.
Posted on 4/19/20 at 4:34 pm to 2thDoc
quote:Well that’s just a flat out not true. Flu statistics are notorious for scooping up a bunch of corresponding ailments under the death by flu headline. Maybe not as often as Covid, sure. But still, your characterization is just simply wrong
Difference is when people die of the flu, they die of the flu.
Posted on 4/19/20 at 4:34 pm to Apollyon
quote:Well I wasn’t attempting to justify that; I was just pointing out that the deaths have been far higher than the flu, regardless of what we’ve done. For someone with a medical degree, your reading comprehension has been really poor.
Justify the shutdown using these numbers.
Go
But if you insist on justifying our actions, I’ll do it. With an R0 of 2.5, we’ve gotten it down to about 1 (some places below), although it took a few weeks. So conservatively, we would probably have 4-5 times as many cases, and even if deaths we half that, we’re looking at 80,000 to 100,000 deaths (40,000 to 60,000 more).
And since we’re probably only half way to our total death totals (80,000) with the actions in place, and the cases would probably would have at least doubled again, we’re looking at 240,000 to 320,000 deaths, at least 3 to 4 times the death totals. And those are conservative estimates.
Posted on 4/19/20 at 4:34 pm to buckeye_vol
(no message)
This post was edited on 6/9/20 at 12:35 pm
Posted on 4/19/20 at 4:34 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:
. With an R0 of 2.5,
Its not.
Posted on 4/19/20 at 4:36 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:
And since we’re probably only half way to our total death totals (80,000) with the actions in place, and the cases would probably would have at least doubled again, we’re looking at 240,000 to 320,000 deaths, at least 3 to 4 times the death totals. And those are conservative estimates.
Lol. IHME models have already been proven off by an order of magnitude.
Try again
This post was edited on 4/19/20 at 4:37 pm
Posted on 4/19/20 at 4:36 pm to Apollyon
quote:I’m supposing 80,000-90,000 official deaths (probably 120,000 to 180,000 once estimated like the flu).
The numbers of dead will not rise to any astronomical level you suppose.
Fact.
Those aren’t astronomical, but those are far higher than even the worst flu season in recent history, with extreme mitigation measures (whether justified or not).
Posted on 4/19/20 at 4:36 pm to musick
quote:
The rate of death for people with COVID-19 compared to the flu is also stark. According to the CDC, 35.5 million people likely got the flu last year. That is a death rate of only .1%.
Coronavirus has infected, at least, 742,459 people in the United States. That means it has a death rate of over 5%, which is more than 50 times the flu if its current death rate holds.
That’s not how this works. They assume and estimate the number of flu cases which brings the number down to .1%. The Covid number is simply the positive test/deaths rate. The positive test/deaths rate for this year’s flu is 3.5%.
Posted on 4/19/20 at 4:37 pm to Korkstand
quote:
I don't see buckeye so much as hinting at a final death total, much less an "astronomical" one.
Buckeye wrote:
quote:
we’re looking at 240,000 to 320,000
This is too easy
Posted on 4/19/20 at 4:37 pm to musick
How many died during the 2017-2018 Flu season?
Posted on 4/19/20 at 4:38 pm to buckeye_vol
The numbers do not justify this shutdown.
Fact
Fact
Posted on 4/19/20 at 4:38 pm to Grim
quote:
Coronavirus has infected, at least, 742,459 people in the United States. That means it has a death rate of over 5%, which is more than 50 times the flu if its current death rate holds.
So your source claims a 5% death rate from this Wuhan virus?
The Stanford study says it is well under 1%
Further, the CDC says that in the 2019-2020 flu season, between 24,000 and 62,000 Americans have died of influenza.
Final estimates for this flu season include:
-- 24,000 – 62,000 deaths
-- 39,000,000 – 56,000,000 flu illnesses
-- 410,000 – 740,000 hospitalizations
That is a helluva wide range on flu deaths. I wonder how the CDC will explain THAT one.
AND, over the past 20 years, the flu has AVERAGED 60,000 deaths Imagine that
LINK
This post was edited on 4/19/20 at 4:57 pm
Posted on 4/19/20 at 4:38 pm to Apollyon
quote:The IHME model is underestimating deaths post-peak (Italy and Spain have already exceeded their original estimates and they have a long ways to go).
Lol. IHME models have already been proven off by an order of magnitude.
Try again
So the current IHME model’s death totals (about 60,300 in USA) are probably going to be off by 20 or 30 thousand since we’ll probably have more like 80,000 to 90,000 by August 4th (the final day of its projection).
So yeah it’s a really inaccurate model, but statistically and epidemiologically, it’s actually underestimating deaths by a lot on the backside of the peak due to its misspecification of the underlying distribution it’s estimating.
This post was edited on 4/19/20 at 4:41 pm
Posted on 4/19/20 at 4:39 pm to Apollyon
quote:It absolutely is. In fact one conversation is dependent on the other conversation arriving at a reasonable conclusion.
No it isn't.
quote:Basic math, for one. Basic logic, for another.
Now tell me what I don't understand.
We have one set of extremists arguing with inflated numbers, and another set of extremists arguing with deflated numbers.
The truth is somewhere in the middle, and unfortunately the extremists on both sides are ignoring that fact.
And we can't have an honest discussion about what to do about a problem (if anything) if the facts of the problem itself are in doubt.
Page 6 of 19
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News