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Started By
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re: Coronavirus has now killed more Americans in 1 month than flu killed in entire year
Posted on 4/19/20 at 4:39 pm to buckeye_vol
Posted on 4/19/20 at 4:39 pm to buckeye_vol
destroying our economy
This post was edited on 6/9/20 at 1:02 pm
1
Posted on 4/19/20 at 4:40 pm to Korkstand
Hey corkstand; the r0 is not 2.5.
You are a liar
You are a liar
Posted on 4/19/20 at 4:42 pm to Apollyon
quote:quote:Buckeye wrote:
I don't see buckeye so much as hinting at a final death total, much less an "astronomical" one.quote:
we’re looking at 240,000 to 320,000
This is too easy
Characterizing that estimate as "astronomical" is hilariously dishonest. That is roughly 10X an average flu season, which is well within the range of possibility. The total by this time next year will be much, MUCH closer to 300k than it will be to the current total of 40k.
Posted on 4/19/20 at 4:42 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:
The IHME model is underestimating deaths post-peak (Italy and Spain have already exceeded their original estimates and they have a long ways to go).
So the current IHME model’s death totals (about 60,300 in USA) are probably going to be off by 20 or 30 thousand since we’ll probably have more like 80,000 to 90,000 by August 4th (the final day of its projection).
They likely underestimated the revised death totals on purpose so once we reopen and the number of deaths passes 60,000 the media can cry about how evil right wing politicians are killing people.
Posted on 4/19/20 at 4:42 pm to Korkstand
And with a r0 of 2.5 with mortality rate above 1% as was initially claimed, the death rate should be in the millions by now.
Who doesn't understand basic math?
You.
Who doesn't understand basic math?
You.
Posted on 4/19/20 at 4:43 pm to Korkstand
This is 10x a seasonal flu mortality?
Um. No.
Um. No.
Posted on 4/19/20 at 4:44 pm to Apollyon
quote:I never said that it was.
Hey corkstand; the r0 is not 2.5.
You are a liar
Typical behavior on this board, though. Arguing with a strawman.
Posted on 4/19/20 at 4:44 pm to Grim
AND WITH A FLU VACCINE.....you know, the shite they are telling us we have to have to re-open country....douche nozzle
Posted on 4/19/20 at 4:45 pm to Korkstand
Here's a hint: 10x mortality of seasonal flu is 300-700 THOUSAND dead x6 months.
Want to bet your house?
Want to bet your house?
Posted on 4/19/20 at 4:46 pm to Apollyon
quote:Check back in a year and see how the season turned out.
This is 10x a seasonal flu mortality?
Um. No.
But 40k deaths in about a month, concentrated heavily into 2 weeks? Yeah, that's roughly 10X an average flu season rate.
Posted on 4/19/20 at 4:47 pm to Korkstand
quote:
never said that it was.
Typical behavior on this board, though. Arguing with a strawman.
Your buddy buckeye did. And when I called him on it, you white knighted the frick out of it. Own it.
Buckeye said:
quote:
I’ll do it. With an R0 of 2.5
Posted on 4/19/20 at 4:47 pm to Korkstand
quote:
Check back in a year and see how the season turned out.
But 40k deaths in about a month, concentrated heavily into 2 weeks? Yeah, that's roughly 10X an average flu season rate.
I would bet on it. Would you?
Posted on 4/19/20 at 4:47 pm to Apollyon
quote:
And with a r0 of 2.5 with mortality rate above 1% as was initially claimed, the death rate should be in the millions by now.
Who doesn't understand basic math?
You.
I have not claimed that r0 is 2.5, nor have I claimed that mortality is above 1%. So let's add basic reading comprehension and honesty to your list of weak points.
Posted on 4/19/20 at 4:47 pm to Grim
quote:
Why would the CDC want to trick people into thinking COVID is worse than it is? Not everything is a conspiracy
Because the CDC hopes to sell a vaccine soon. How better to sell it by convincing everyone that you will die without it if you leave your house.
Posted on 4/19/20 at 4:48 pm to Korkstand
quote:
have not claimed that r0 is 2.5, nor have I claimed that mortality is above 1%.
Your buddy did.
Posted on 4/19/20 at 4:49 pm to Korkstand
6 months from the first US case: end of June.
I will ban bet you right now that there are not 300 thousand US deaths at the end of June.
I will ban bet you right now that there are not 300 thousand US deaths at the end of June.
This post was edited on 4/19/20 at 4:50 pm
Posted on 4/19/20 at 4:50 pm to Korkstand
In other words. You are full of shite.
Posted on 4/19/20 at 4:51 pm to musick
quote:the flu death rate is based on estimates of the number of people who got it, the covid number is counting pretty much everyone who died from it and only divided by the number of actual positive tests results. If you counted flu that way the death rate would be just as high as covid, and if you used viral models to estimate the total cases of covid and used that number to calculate the death rate, it would be 50-80x less than what is reported now and a similar number to flu
The rate of death for people with COVID-19 compared to the flu is also stark. According to the CDC, 35.5 million people likely got the flu last year. That is a death rate of only .1%.
Coronavirus has infected, at least, 742,459 people in the United States. That means it has a death rate of over 5%, which is more than 50 times the flu if its current death rate holds.
Posted on 4/19/20 at 4:52 pm to narddogg81
Stop talking sense.
I am enjoying destroying these amateur epidemiologists.
Its too damn easy
I am enjoying destroying these amateur epidemiologists.
Its too damn easy
Posted on 4/19/20 at 4:53 pm to Apollyon
quote:Sure. I already have $1k riding on UNDER 1.6 million deaths in 18 months, so I will gladly put another $1k on OVER 300k in the same period. That way I will either break even or come out $2k ahead. You game?
I would bet on it. Would you?
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