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China warned to prepare for lengthy trade war with US

Posted on 11/30/18 at 7:39 am
Posted by member12
Bob's Country Bunker
Member since May 2008
32096 posts
Posted on 11/30/18 at 7:39 am
quote:

Senior economist argues country cannot and should not accept Washington’s terms because America wants to contain its rival

LINK

Beijing should prepare for extended conflict with Washington, because their fundamental differences cannot be resolved in a brief meeting of top leaders, a government adviser has warned.

“We shouldn’t and can’t accept the US imposed terms for a ‘ceasefire’. The trade war won’t end in two or three years and we should make long-term mental preparations,” Pei Changhong, former director of the Institute of Economics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a government think tank, said on Thursday.

US President Donald Trump is using the trade war as a tool to blackmail China for economic concessions, but the fundamental US strategy is to contain China, he argued.


quote:


“The previous strategic development period was largely based on the misjudgment of the United States and other Western countries.

Now that they have woken up, there will be no more incentives [to adopt Western ways] offered in the future,” Pei pointed out.

The reform and opening up initiative started by late paramount leader Deng Xiaoping successfully transformed China from a poor agricultural country into the world’s top exporter and the second largest economy.

Its economic transition, spurred by its entry into the World Trade Organisation in 2001, was largely supported by Washington until recently.


quote:

Chinese growth slowed in the third quarter to its lowest rate in nearly 10 years. In the Politburo’s meeting at the end of July, policymakers shifted the government’s priorities in favour of stabilising growth through additional fiscal spending and monetary policy easing.

Economic sentiment data released earlier Friday suggested growth had continued to slow in the fourth quarter.

And most analysts expect the economy to take a bigger hit in the first half of next year as US tariffs take full effect.

While encouraging the government to take the initiative to participate in global economic governance improvement and to continue expanding the Belt and Road Initiative, Pei also urged policymakers to take further action to reduce the effect of the trade war in the short-term.

For instance, he suggested the government set up a quota system on soybean imports since China’s reliance on the US product cannot be changed in the short term.

The government should also help Chinese exporters to set up offshore entities to bypass US tariffs and so prevent a loss of market share.

And to help the country gain access to new technology, Beijing should encourage manufacturing investment in developed countries, he added.
Posted by OchoDedos
Republic of Texas
Member since Oct 2014
34080 posts
Posted on 11/30/18 at 7:52 am to
US President Donald Trump is using the trade war as a tool to blackmail China for economic concessions, but the fundamental US strategy is to contain China, he argued.

“Suppressing potential rivals is a political tradition in the US, no matter who is in office,” Pei, a member of China’s top political advisory body, wrote in an article posted online.

And China stealing industrial secrets and intellectual property is just the cost of doing business.

The Emperors grand plan of global domination just hit a brick wall named Trump.
Posted by udtiger
Over your left shoulder
Member since Nov 2006
98772 posts
Posted on 11/30/18 at 7:56 am to
quote:

The Emperors grand plan of global domination just hit a brick wall named Trump


Which is why you will see REAL foreign interference in 2020 led by China (and, I suspect if you dig deep into the finances of the DNC and the 2018 midterm Dem House candidates, there would be a lot of Chinese money there also).

But by all means Bob...you keep chasing Russian ghosts.
This post was edited on 11/30/18 at 7:57 am
Posted by goatmilker
Castle Anthrax
Member since Feb 2009
64341 posts
Posted on 11/30/18 at 8:09 am to
Perhaps it was the Chinese all along who owned the US msm. Would explain quite a bit lol.
Posted by tigeraddict
Baton Rouge
Member since Mar 2007
11806 posts
Posted on 11/30/18 at 8:42 am to
I think China is hedging on two things. 1) that a democrat congress will stifle his tariff power. which i doubt. 2) that they only need to hold out 2 more years until they get another bought and paid for president in the white house. which i think they have to wait 6 more years.
Posted by NC_Tigah
Carolinas
Member since Sep 2003
123908 posts
Posted on 11/30/18 at 9:06 am to
quote:

But by all means Bob...you keep chasing Russian ghosts.
Bob's pursuit of Russian "ghosts" is neither accidental, incidental, or misinformed. Nor is it a search for truth. Bob's pursuit is to forward a coup. That is all.

Mueller views his position as an opportunity to rid the Deep State of a major threat, or at least neutralize said threat, and then to restore the FBI's previous near-Stasiesque power.
Posted by Dry Prong Wildcat
Member since Oct 2017
418 posts
Posted on 11/30/18 at 9:09 am to
This is a GENERATIONAL battle.....we just have never either had our leaders recognize the long term danger or too short sighted to do anything about it. The chamber of commerce gang just wants their share of the China pie.
Posted by Champagne
Already Conquered USA.
Member since Oct 2007
48352 posts
Posted on 11/30/18 at 9:47 am to
This trade war won't be lengthy. As soon as the Establishment can get rid of Trump, the USA will be back to business as usual with China.

All China needs to do is run out the clock on Trump. Of course, they know this as well as anybody.

IMHO, Trump is the last POTUS in our lifetimes that will try to "contain" China.
This post was edited on 11/30/18 at 9:52 am
Posted by Champagne
Already Conquered USA.
Member since Oct 2007
48352 posts
Posted on 11/30/18 at 9:50 am to
quote:

Bob's pursuit of Russian "ghosts" is neither accidental, incidental, or misinformed. Nor is it a search for truth. Bob's pursuit is to forward a coup. That is all. Mueller views his position as an opportunity to rid the Deep State of a major threat, or at least neutralize said threat, and then to restore the FBI's previous near-Stasiesque power.


VERY well put.

Posted by deltaland
Member since Mar 2011
90605 posts
Posted on 11/30/18 at 10:16 am to
quote:

For instance, he suggested the government set up a quota system on soybean imports since China’s reliance on the US product cannot be changed in the short term.

The government should also help Chinese exporters to set up offshore entities to bypass US tariffs and so prevent a loss of market share.

And to help the country gain access to new technology, Beijing should encourage manufacturing investment in developed countries, he added.


Oh so they want to continue cheating and stealing IP?

frick them. End all trade with China and watch them burn. Move our cheap plastic product production to Mexico and India
Posted by bamarep
Member since Nov 2013
51806 posts
Posted on 11/30/18 at 10:40 am to
I guess they really are pissed that we fricked them out of their 21T in gold they asked us to hold for them in WW2.
Posted by Shiftyplus1
Regret nothing that made you smile
Member since Oct 2005
13348 posts
Posted on 11/30/18 at 10:43 am to
The US supported China becoming a more capitalistic nation because we thought they would also adopt a more democratic and fair government. But they aren't doing that. They are stealing, cheating, lying,and threatening everyone around them, all while still being complete assholes to their citizens. So frick them and their neo-commie bullshite
Posted by BurningHeart
Member since Jan 2017
9520 posts
Posted on 11/30/18 at 11:13 am to
China is not going to say anything different, regardless of their intentions.

It wouldn't be too smart to say "We really hope the US drops the tariffs soon because it's really hurting us"
Posted by MrLSU
Yellowstone, Val d'isere
Member since Jan 2004
25982 posts
Posted on 11/30/18 at 11:44 am to
China is getting crushed right now as the Supply Chain they had locked up is now unchained and fleeing elsewhere.

Even if the US & China agreed to end the trade war this morning the supply chain is already moving and it won't come back to China. We are watching the biggest world-wide supply chain disruption and change since 2001 when China joined the WTO.

China has been responsible for 1/5 of all global manufacturing. When this trade war is over with they will be lucky to have a small fraction of that global manufacturing business left.

The only reason that China still has global manufacturing right now is that moving the supply chain this quickly is very difficult as other emerging economies like Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia, India, and Indonesia can only accommodate new business on a first come, first served basis right now.

In Vietnam there are no available factories to lease because every single one of them has been leased out since October of 2018 (i.e. in the last 45 days). Vietnam is going to be the next Japan or South Korea due to the international business moving there since they are fleeing China.

KCE Electronics, Southeast Asia’s biggest maker of printed circuit boards (PCBs), has been contacted by U.S. companies who want to seek a new supplier to replace one in China, CEO Pitharn Ongkosit told Reuters.

Stars Microelectronics Pcl, a Thai electronics manufacturing services provider is also expanding since three companies will start moving their production base (out of China) to Thailand,” CEO Peerapol Wilaiwongstien announced.

Cambodia is also attracting interest, with Parsippany, NJ-based bicycle maker Kent International Inc shifting Chinese production to the Southeast Asian country.

We are on the cusp of the biggest sourcing disruption that we have seen in a generation,” said Stephen Lamar, executive vice-president of the American Apparel & Footwear Association, whose more than 1,000 members contribute over $400 billion annually to U.S. retail sales.“The No. 1 thing I hear from companies is along the lines of: ‘For years we have been talking about diversifying from China and now we have to actually do it’.”

Right now the Chinese export data is going to show a very small drop due to the tariffs but that is because every global supply chain company across the globe is rushing to get all of their product out of China before Trump institutes more tariffs.

We will see the real impact of these tariffs on China by the end of 2019 when I suspect the Chinese export data will be cut by 1/3 to 1/4. China is one country that can't afford this because it is a country that is very "Balkanized" with differing ethnic & religious factions who for the most part hate each other. The only thing that has held this country together has been the global supply chain employment which has kept everyone fat & happy over there.

The short term impact on the US will be marginally minimal but the long term impact will be huge for the US both politically, militarily, and economically and disasterous for China both economically and societally. You can't just introduce Western culture into society and then try to go back to the old days of China where is there no Western influence.

Trump needs to implement new Chinese investment curbs into the US as well to prevent Chinese interference into US politics. It makes no sense at all that Chinese government owned and sponsored companies can dictate to news & media outlets in the US what they can or can't publish which is what is happening now.
This post was edited on 11/30/18 at 11:53 am
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