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re: China is dumping US treasuries because they know Trump is watching the 10-year yield
Posted on 4/8/25 at 8:22 am to dkreller
Posted on 4/8/25 at 8:22 am to dkreller
quote:
Oh I thought you were talking about known goals of the admin.
Those are the 3 goals the admin has stated the most, as well.
Just at different times via different admin members, in conflict with each other. Hence the volatility we've seen in response to the chaos.
0
Posted on 4/8/25 at 8:22 am to SlowFlowPro
So Xi is essentially lobbying a hand grenade across the table at the US. He doesn't mind getting hurt a little if the grenade explodes on Trump's side of the table.
It's like the guy who gets in a fight and says, " I may be going to jail, but I'm sending you to the hospital."
It's like the guy who gets in a fight and says, " I may be going to jail, but I'm sending you to the hospital."
Posted on 4/8/25 at 8:22 am to imjustafatkid
quote:
China is not the only third world hellhole where things can be made.
China was already losing manufacturing share before Trump came into office
Posted on 4/8/25 at 8:23 am to KiwiHead
Good grief why are you always so stupid
Posted on 4/8/25 at 8:24 am to FLBooGoTigs1
quote:
You think a Billionaire like Trump is just going to sit on his Billions and fade into the sunset? If he was going to do that he would never had run for president three times. It's not about the money. Trump has taken on the world and is trying to change what would have been and people like yourself would have let it happen.
Your logic has several flaws:
1. If you espouse the nobility of billionaires reinvesting and job creating, which I agree with, then why the reshuffle of the strongest economy in the world?
2. What is Trump trying to achieve? I can ask you this and get one answer, I can ask five others and get five different answers. None of you know what is actually intended here.
3. The decisions made here have a historical record that shows you THIS is insane, and for a crowd that fancies itself well read and knowledgeable, some of you sure have a way of throwing history away for blind faith in a single politician.
Posted on 4/8/25 at 8:24 am to GumboPot
quote:
So you think our goal with China is the same with Germany is the same with Israel is the same with Romania is the same with Monaco is the same with India....etc., etc., etc.?
The theories don't really work well unless we focus on one. I even ran out how they conflict with each other (without even getting into the domestic effects indirectly caused by the goals).
Posted on 4/8/25 at 8:26 am to SDVTiger
Because in this case, that's the game that is being played. It's a game of who loses less.
Posted on 4/8/25 at 8:27 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
So China just has to hold out on this path through June, to potentially cause major long-term pain?
If China is selling on the bond market before maturity to spite Trump because of trade they are taking a loss on price.
IMO it is not China selling on the bond market. It's the Federal Reserve (through primary dealers) moving bonds off their balance sheet (selling) to get back to parity with the stated Fed's Fund Rate of 4.33%. This can be confirmed next month if the Federal Reserve balance sheet continues to trend downward. LINK
Posted on 4/8/25 at 8:28 am to CollegeFBRules
quote:
Trump started this, what did he expect China to do? Say sorry? This shite is going to get ugly, and we are going to be the ones caught in the middle of all it.
OMG!! Run!! Run!! The sky is falling!! Lol
Trump and his team knew all the possibilities and have planned reactions.
Scott Bessent knows his way around these things. He was instrumental in literally breaking the Bank of England.
quote:
To hear him tell it, Scott Bessent was built just for this moment. “In the next few years, we are going to have to have some kind of a grand, global economic reordering,” the billionaire hedge fund investor predicted at an event last summer. “I’d like to be a part of it.”
quote:
Bessent has not only studied such grand shifts, he has participated in them. As a young trader in London in 1992, it was he and Stanley Druckenmiller, both working for legendary investor George Soros at the time, who came up with the idea to bet against the pound. Soros will forever be known as “the man who broke the Bank of England” — and took the resulting $1 billion profit that bet yielded when Britain pulled out of the European exchange rate mechanism (ERM). But it was Bessent who set the wheels in motion behind the scenes.
LINK
Posted on 4/8/25 at 8:28 am to LSUnation78
quote:They have been buying our debt for sometime to maintain leverage over us (that's why they used the word "blackmail economics" in their statement... pure projection) for the day they needed it.
You’re a frog that didnt know it was in boiling water.
China has been driving towards this for decades. Better to do it on timing and terms of our choosing.
It is here.
Posted on 4/8/25 at 8:30 am to lake chuck fan
quote:
Bessent has not only studied such grand shifts, he has participated in them. As a young trader in London in 1992, it was he and Stanley Druckenmiller, both working for legendary investor George Soros at the time, who came up with the idea to bet against the pound. Soros will forever be known as “the man who broke the Bank of England” — and took the resulting $1 billion profit that bet yielded when Britain pulled out of the European exchange rate mechanism (ERM). But it was Bessent who set the wheels in motion behind the scenes.
Did you legitimately just post something in support of Bessent that showed how he worked hand in hand with fricking George Soros? Is THAT the world order you want recreated?!
Posted on 4/8/25 at 8:30 am to KiwiHead
Lol, the goal is to have countries pay 10 or more percent in tariffs. This will allow him to take the income taxes off of 90% of US citizens. Now, there are other things that have to be sorted out for this to happen, but the goal is to shift taxes. Obviously the power people on your side of the isle do not want this to happen, because they know if it does it is game over....
Posted on 4/8/25 at 8:30 am to KiwiHead
Your only thought was the double down
Posted on 4/8/25 at 8:31 am to GumboPot
quote:
If China is selling on the bond market before maturity to spite Trump because of trade they are taking a loss on price.
Sure, but this is a trade war. Irrationality abounds and it's about hurting your perceived enemy in the trade war more than being smart. Being smart is avoiding a trade war in the first place (that's on Trump, this time).
So now it's a matter of who can inflict the most pain, and that's why I was asking about the time frame. If China can engage in this policy (and irrationally hurt themselves short term) through June, they can cost the US trillions long term, right?
Posted on 4/8/25 at 8:33 am to Hitman67
quote:
Lol, the goal is to have countries pay 10 or more percent in tariffs. This will allow him to take the income taxes off of 90% of US citizens. Now, there are other things that have to be sorted out for this to happen, but the goal is to shift taxes. Obviously the power people on your side of the isle do not want this to happen, because they know if it does it is game over....
So now we’re trying to shift income tax off of Americans.
This list keeps growing for what 4D chess game is being played.
Posted on 4/8/25 at 8:33 am to GumboPot
quote:
$9.2T in 2025. 70% of which is due from January to June. It's not unusual to refinance ~$4T in one year (at current GDP levels).
Therein is the problem.
Posted on 4/8/25 at 8:36 am to Hitman67
quote:that is why the failure to raise the debt ceiling with the interim (before he took office) continuing resolution was such a hinderence.
Lol, the goal is to have countries pay 10 or more percent in tariffs. This will allow him to take the income taxes off of 90% of US citizens. Now, there are other things that have to be sorted out for this to happen, but the goal is to shift taxes. Obviously the power people on your side of the isle do not want this to happen, because they know if it does it is game over....
This tariff plan only works with tax cuts (and a slow roll on a real, not fake, jobs market). The tax cuts were supposed to come just before the tariffs; the tax cuts offset, to a degree, the inflationary pressure and price increases to the consumer of the tariffs.
The sad fact is tax cuts are considered "spending increases" by the CBO. Conversely, tax increases are considered spending cuts; that's how Biden was able to claim he cut deficit spending- by increasing taxes in the IRA.
It's rigged towards the democrats via an allied media who will use that above to deceive the American people.
Posted on 4/8/25 at 8:37 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
If China can engage in this policy (and irrationally hurt themselves short term) through June, they can cost the US trillions long term, right?
IDK. You have to show me how the costs in trillions. IDK what they are.
There are all kinds of mitigating factors.
Peoples Bank of China printing (they will).
Dollar getting stronger.
Energy getting cheaper.
Lowering other taxes.
More U.S. citizens going back to work.
Walmart making China manufacturers eat more costs of doing business.
Etc.
Posted on 4/8/25 at 8:38 am to GumboPot
quote:
IDK. You have to show me how the costs in trillions. IDK what they are.
Having to refi at higher interest rates compared to the lower rates they're trying to achieve.
This post was edited on 4/8/25 at 8:39 am
Posted on 4/8/25 at 8:49 am to CollegeFBRules
quote:
So now we’re trying to shift income tax off of Americans.
You would rather income tax than tariffs?
The income tax is the most insidious tax of all.
Do you realize before the Federal Reserve Act of 1913, when congress overspent through deficit spending they had to go to the people and sell bonds to the people to fund their deficits? The people had vetoing power simply by not buying federal government debt.
Then the Federal Reserve Act of 1913 was passed and signed by Woodrow Wilson. The Federal Reserve became congress' creditor for deficit spending. No longer was the people the final lender of last resort for congressional overspending. We lost our veto power against congressional overspending when the FR Act of 1913 was passed.
Then they passed the 16th amendment which gave the federal government the authority to tax our income and they use that income to pay back Federal Reserve Bank loans to the federal government.
At least with tariffs you still have veto power. In a land as resource rich as America, technically you don't have to buy tariffed goods.
With compulsory federal government income taxes you have no veto power.
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