re: Black voting just 23 percent of their population in Florida this year.Down from last year.

Who is left to vote for Biden?


I do expect him to keep it close with a large turnout of the deceased.

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Early voting there looks much worse for Trump, though I recall a similar scenario in 2016...

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GOP is outperforming 2016 in NC as well

Mickey I don't understand the DVs. That's an interesting analysis. The only thing not noted is whereas the Black vote is at 2016 levels, is overall voting not up by comparison?

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Black voting just 23 percent of their population in Florida

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This is the best possible news. Even though President Trump's percentage of the black vote is increasing, it's still a reality that 80% of blacks who do vote will continue to support the Democrat Party.

This Caucasian would like to thank you for staying home.

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Not worried about it.

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You should be.

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In another thread in the PB, it shows Rs are +250,000 party registrations over Ds since 2016.

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Most of that net gain was due to old Dixiecrats finally changing their official registration to Republican. Regardless, Democrats have 2.6 million on the rolls and Republicans have 2.2 million on the rolls.

LINK

More importantly, in terms of early voting turnout, Democrats have turned out 1.5 million and Republicans have turned out 1.2 million. To put it plainly, Democrats have a 300k lead despite a slightly smaller percentage of their base having voted. Of course, we all expect Republicans to crush it on election day, and for Democrats to perform mediocrely, but even if so, will it be enough to overcome that kind of deficit?

Perhaps the greatest cause for concern is that North Carolina has 2.4 million independent voters on the rolls, and all polling indicates they are breaking for Biden at almost 2:1 ratios. Of course, some (most?) of these folks are really just Democrats or Republicans who haven't officially designated themselves, but in a close election, a 2:1 break in swing voters, whatever the actual number, is very, very bad.

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Trump won NC in '16 by 175,000 votes

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A comforting, but ultimately meaningless statistic. That's only two percent of the voting-eligible population. Let's recall that the state elected the Great Satan in 2008, and also a Democratic governor in 2018. North Carolina has right-of-center fundamentals, but has shown a willingness to consider both sides. With everything going wrong for Trump now, and with four years of a booming Charlotte and Raleigh-Durham since 2016, that figure actually isn't very comforting, now that I think about it.

Unless the polling is as wrong as it was in 2016, we are in for a bloodbath.

He was down 600,000 in NC in early vote in 2016. So if he's only down 270,000 this time. The dems better be scared.

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Do you have a citation for that? I just checked the North Carolina Secretary of State website and it says that Hillary Clinton's lead was only 78,000 in early voting in 2016. Where are you getting 600k?

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They are talking about registered Ds vs Rs. Your link shows what the actual votes were. I think who you replied to didn’t word it correctly. NC is like La where even the Ds heavily vote R for President. For instance La will probably have more overall Ds vote, but will heavily go Trump

I mean, let's hope not, but that's what the polls are suggesting.

What sucks is the Yankees move to Florida to get away from the taxes. Then they vote the vote the same damn way. Just doesn’t make sense at all. I imagine it is the same for people fleeing cal.