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cardigandawg
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| Number of Posts: | 7 |
| Registered on: | 10/27/2020 |
| Online Status: | Not Online |
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re: Texas Early Voting Numbers
Posted by cardigandawg on 10/30/20 at 5:27 pm to LakeCharles
Don't discount it. If I had to pick, I pick Trump, but it's going to be narrow. Biden winning Texas is realistic.
His decrease in popularity among women and young voters is a real thing. One of my friend's moms - who literally thinks Democrats are related to the devil - is voting for Biden because she wants the GOP to go back to "the way it used to be" or some shite by sending a message. If she is voting for Biden there are sure to be alot more right-of-center women voting for Biden.
His decrease in popularity among women and young voters is a real thing. One of my friend's moms - who literally thinks Democrats are related to the devil - is voting for Biden because she wants the GOP to go back to "the way it used to be" or some shite by sending a message. If she is voting for Biden there are sure to be alot more right-of-center women voting for Biden.
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re: How is PA looking?
Posted by cardigandawg on 10/30/20 at 5:13 pm to PhDoogan
There is no way that map is happening. There is no data to bear that out.
Set your expectations low and be pleasantly surprised if Trump wins.
Set your expectations low and be pleasantly surprised if Trump wins.
re: Black voting just 23 percent of their population in Florida this year.Down from last year.
Posted by cardigandawg on 10/30/20 at 5:00 pm to DallasTiger11
I mean, let's hope not, but that's what the polls are suggesting.
re: Black voting just 23 percent of their population in Florida this year.Down from last year.
Posted by cardigandawg on 10/30/20 at 4:42 pm to Ltown_tiger
quote:
He was down 600,000 in NC in early vote in 2016.
Do you have a citation for that? I just checked the North Carolina Secretary of State website and it says that Hillary Clinton's lead was only 78,000 in early voting in 2016. Where are you getting 600k?
LINK
re: Just a question: Why are we allowing out of state money to influence State elections?
Posted by cardigandawg on 10/30/20 at 4:34 pm to DiamondDog
Citizens United. A 5-4 SCOTUS decision in 2013 saying that political spending is the same as speech.
Maine used to have a law prohibiting out-of-state money in politics, but that was invalidated after Citizens United.
Maine used to have a law prohibiting out-of-state money in politics, but that was invalidated after Citizens United.
re: Black voting just 23 percent of their population in Florida this year.Down from last year.
Posted by cardigandawg on 10/30/20 at 3:52 pm to Floyd Dawg
quote:
Not worried about it.
You should be.
quote:
In another thread in the PB, it shows Rs are +250,000 party registrations over Ds since 2016.
Most of that net gain was due to old Dixiecrats finally changing their official registration to Republican. Regardless, Democrats have 2.6 million on the rolls and Republicans have 2.2 million on the rolls.
LINK
More importantly, in terms of early voting turnout, Democrats have turned out 1.5 million and Republicans have turned out 1.2 million. To put it plainly, Democrats have a 300k lead despite a slightly smaller percentage of their base having voted. Of course, we all expect Republicans to crush it on election day, and for Democrats to perform mediocrely, but even if so, will it be enough to overcome that kind of deficit?
Perhaps the greatest cause for concern is that North Carolina has 2.4 million independent voters on the rolls, and all polling indicates they are breaking for Biden at almost 2:1 ratios. Of course, some (most?) of these folks are really just Democrats or Republicans who haven't officially designated themselves, but in a close election, a 2:1 break in swing voters, whatever the actual number, is very, very bad.
quote:
Trump won NC in '16 by 175,000 votes
A comforting, but ultimately meaningless statistic. That's only two percent of the voting-eligible population. Let's recall that the state elected the Great Satan in 2008, and also a Democratic governor in 2018. North Carolina has right-of-center fundamentals, but has shown a willingness to consider both sides. With everything going wrong for Trump now, and with four years of a booming Charlotte and Raleigh-Durham since 2016, that figure actually isn't very comforting, now that I think about it.
Unless the polling is as wrong as it was in 2016, we are in for a bloodbath.
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