Anyone have a no spin summary/cliffs update on the Ukraine war?

frick Putin, this shouldn't end until he is hanging from a rope after the war crimes trial.

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give the school yard bully a few bucks

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Honestly. Do we really know what Putin is after? I feel like this has never been clarified and you can't ask it without getting an emotionally charged child like response.

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looking for a way to let Putin withdraw with dignity and something to show for all the trouble.

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He’ll get nothing and he’ll like it.

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He’ll get nothing and he’ll like it.

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He also has 6300 warheads. You may not like it either. But keep on blowharding.

fricking social media and the internet has turned everyone into a badass keyboard commando. Bloviating about an all out war against the largest land country in the world with the largest nuke stockpile, thinking that would be some cool own to try and take out Putin and not concerned at all about the worldwide repercussions of such an act. We may get Putin, but he will get his pound of flesh on the way out.

The way the media (propaganda) is, we won't know what's happening until it's over. Maybe not then, either.

People who bitch and/or laugh at Russia's apparent difficulties in this fight need to remember:
Ukraine was part of the Soviet Union. Russia was a bigger part of the Soviet Union.

This is like if Texas or California left the US, and 30 years later the US invaded. You would have generals who follow the same principals facing off, much of the same equipment being used, etc. Ukraine is in the defensive position, is simply trying to hold out and make things a war of attrition. Russia knew this going in, I suspect.

I do think Putin was aware of what he was getting into, and I don't think we are being told his real reasons for doing so. I do think the US is a big part of that reason.

It's all propaganda BS, on all sides.

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frick Putin, this shouldn't end until he is hanging from a rope after the war crimes trial.

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We have a few here that deserve the same fate.

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1) What is the main purpose of the attack? What would be a win for Putin look like?

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When he launched the attack in February, he told the Russian people it was to "demilitarize and de-Nazify Ukraine" due to what he claimed was genocide being perpetrated by the Ukrainian government, primarily in the pro-Russian Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts (oblasts are their versions or states/provinces). He's stated in the past that he does not want Ukraine as a NATO country and Ukraine has petitioned for membership, so there is a strong feeling that played a large role as well.

The most minimal win for Putin would look like getting at least Donbass or Luhansk to go with his 2014 annexation of Crimea (which was part of Ukraine until then).

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2) Is Ukraine really kicking the shite out of Russia? Keep seeing this reported both ways. I have also seen Russia has worn their resources down and is ready to unleash a new wave and finish it off. Weird how there can be such varying reports.

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Comparatively speaking, yes. Russia has an estimated active military of 850,000 with another ~500,000 reserves and paramilitary. They have hundreds of offensive helicopters and jets alone with thousands of tanks, armored vehicles and artillery. They are estimated to be the 2nd most powerful military in the world. LINK

Ukraine has an estimated active military of 200,000 with another 250,000 of reserves and 50,000 paramilitary. Their entire airpower fleet comes in at 318 vehicles and their total for armored vehicles, tanks, artillery, etc. is just a little over the total Russia has in tanks alone. They are ranked as the 22nd most powerful military in the world. LINK

Ukraine is a direct neighbor to Russia and they both belonged to the Soviet Union for decades so it's not like Russia has to project their strength over an ocean nor is it terrain they have no data on.

On paper this should have been a slam dunk for Russia, but that paper is missing some very important details.

Much of Russia's land hardware has been mothballed for decades. What hasn't been raped for parts is likely rusted to the point of being unusable. Russia's logistics seem to be non-existent. They attacked during one of the worst times (when the ground is wet and soggy) and their troops quickly outpaced their supply lines. From a few accounts, the Russian soldiers had been told they would be welcomed with open arms as liberators so they were caught off-guard by any real defense put on by the Ukrainian military or citizenry.

Russia never achieved air superiority even though just their attack helicopters alone dwarf the entire Ukrainian air fleet. Without having air superiority, you're in for a long slog of a war.

Russia's idea was to start off by sending in a large force of airborne troops and special forces to blitz the Antonov strategic airport at Hostomel. This would be both their beachhead where they would bring in even more Russian troops and hardware and their staging point from where they figured to quickly take Kyiv.

The Ukrainians had spent the last few years bolstering their air defenses with radar-controlled, heat-seeking ground-to-air missile facilities and had trained troops well on the use of shoulder-fired anti-aircraft systems. This and the fact that the Russians expected no real resistance crippled their initial push. As more arms have flooded into Ukraine from other countries (basically making Ukraine a proxy for the West against Russia), Russia has had to cede ground.

This is not to say that the Ukrainians are the real-world equivalent of the Spartans from 300, but rather that Russia's awe-inspiring military might seems to be more of a paper bear. This would not be out of character as, once the USSR fell, we found that much of what we thought of as Russian strength (specifically economically) was more bravado than anything else.

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3) Are there any peace talks on the table? If so, who is holding them up? What is Russia offering? Is Ukraine countering?

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There are ongoing talks but the last I read on them was that Russia was demanding Donbass and Luhansk and Ukraine was telling them "nyet". Ukraine has offered to remain neutral toward NATO (read: will pledge to not join them), but apparently that's not enough for Russia. They are being held in the Brest region in Belarus.

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4) Is the EU still buying petro from Russia? In USD or Rubles?

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Yes and most are still paying in USD but there have been rumblings of paying in Roubles. LINK

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5) Would Putin simply be happy to withdraw if he can take the Donbas region?

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At this point? I wouldn't think so. Currently the might of the Russian military is in question. If he were to simply accept the Donbass region and go home, it would be seen as a huge defeat of Russia (considering the "on paper" points earlier) regardless of how he and the Russian government attempted to portray it.

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6) Is the West allowing to give Putin an out if he feels the juice isn't worth the squeeze anymore in this war?

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To an extent, probably so. Some more than others though. It's easy for us to stand against Russia, it's harder for the European countries who have tied their energy futures to Russian fuel. You can't simply create new infrastructure from other sources overnight. If Russia were to call the whole thing off tomorrow and withdraw, few of the European countries would change their fuel-purchasing habits. The longer this goes on though, especially with Putin threatening other countries (looking at you, Finland), the more he pushes them toward making that change.

Russia winning and going to win.

There you go.