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re: Any PT baw or bawette ready to go on the record for who wins the 2024 GE?

Posted on 10/28/24 at 3:50 pm to
Posted by NawlinsTiger9
Where the mongooses roam
Member since Jan 2009
39698 posts
Posted on 10/28/24 at 3:50 pm to
Deriving conclusions from early voting data is rarely a good idea
Posted by SlowFlowPro
With populists, expect populism
Member since Jan 2004
477219 posts
Posted on 10/28/24 at 3:51 pm to
quote:

Harris wins with a final EC total that will look pretty convincing


Posted by Great Plains Drifter
Flyover, U.S.A.
Member since Jul 2019
9920 posts
Posted on 10/28/24 at 3:53 pm to
quote:

who wins the 2024 GE?


Trump will win it without a doubt. In an honest system, it wouldn’t be close.

Who will be “declared” the president-elect remains to be seen.
Posted by Lou Pai
Member since Dec 2014
29595 posts
Posted on 10/28/24 at 3:55 pm to
Why? You can compare to prior years and also observe trends nationally. Black voter turnout is down in key urban areas. This past Sunday was supposed to be a big turnout day with Souls to the Polls and it turned out to be a dud.
Posted by Pelican fan99
Lafayette, Louisiana
Member since Jun 2013
39526 posts
Posted on 10/28/24 at 3:56 pm to
Donald Trump will win
Posted by Bass Tiger
Member since Oct 2014
55757 posts
Posted on 10/28/24 at 4:03 pm to
quote:

The polls show a shift to Trump, the early voting looks better for Trump than in the past, the betting market favors Trump, 538 favors Trump, Nate silver favors Trump, the top 2 issues favor Trump, but I still don't know.


You know what a lot of the Dim pundits are saying? They're saying same day voting which generally favors Republicans will be much lower than previous elections because of the Republican effort to get out the early vote. The Dims think they will have enough on the side (ballot harvesting) to offset the smaller than normal advantage Republicans usually depend on for Election Day votes.
Posted by Jake88
Member since Apr 2005
80002 posts
Posted on 10/28/24 at 4:06 pm to
quote:

You can compare to prior years and also observe trends nationally. Black voter turnout is down in key urban areas. This past Sunday was supposed to be a big turnout day with Souls to the Polls and it turned out to be a dud
How do we know this with certainty?
Posted by RohanGonzales
Pronoun: Whatever
Member since Apr 2024
10707 posts
Posted on 10/28/24 at 4:07 pm to
quote:

SlowFlowPro



Oh no, this site is such an echo chamber!


hahahahahahahahaha

fricking dumbshit
Posted by Bunta
Member since Oct 2007
12700 posts
Posted on 10/28/24 at 4:10 pm to
quote:

How do we know this with certainty?


Data being reported by counties, etc.
This post was edited on 10/28/24 at 4:12 pm
Posted by RohanGonzales
Pronoun: Whatever
Member since Apr 2024
10707 posts
Posted on 10/28/24 at 4:12 pm to
quote:

Deriving conclusions from early voting data is rarely a good idea


and yet you are doing it because that is all there is now
Posted by NawlinsTiger9
Where the mongooses roam
Member since Jan 2009
39698 posts
Posted on 10/28/24 at 4:12 pm to
Incorrect
Posted by Bunta
Member since Oct 2007
12700 posts
Posted on 10/28/24 at 4:12 pm to
quote:

Deriving conclusions from early voting data is rarely a good idea


Depends on the conclusions you're trying to draw. As Lou Pai said, there's trends you can take from it which has shown black voter turnout is down across multiple states. There's an enthusiasm gap showing, etc. What's been seen so far isn't only showing up in one state, it's across multiple.
This post was edited on 10/28/24 at 4:13 pm
Posted by Figgy
CenCal
Member since May 2020
10351 posts
Posted on 10/28/24 at 4:15 pm to
21st upvote is mine. I think Trump will win. He should win with the state of the country right now and the world being on fire doesn't help the dems cause either. I'm viewing this election as the last stand of the sane. How far gone are we as a country? Are my worries justified with the radicalized youth becoming more politically active? Because that bodes horribly for our future. Are people in the middle going to put their personal dislike of Trump aside and vote for him in large enough numbers to push the swing states back to the republicans? Or will they stay home out of disgust with both candidates? What matters more: Feelings or your pocketbook? It used to be pocketbook not all that long ago. But Obama happened and that has had a lasting effect. I think Trump's biggest advantage is that we already have had 4 years with him in charge and things went pretty darn well. I'm hopeful that people remember what was and what could be again if given the chance. Trump has his faults but the alternative is an absolute disaster waiting to be unleashed upon the country. I'm also curious to see how long his coattails are for the down ballot races. If he wins he's going to need a friendly congress to creating a legacy beyond the SC (which was and is huge).
Posted by Lou Pai
Member since Dec 2014
29595 posts
Posted on 10/28/24 at 4:15 pm to
Georgia reports voter turnout by race and I think NC does as well
Posted by LSUbacchus81
Hendersonville, TN
Member since Aug 2007
5899 posts
Posted on 10/28/24 at 4:16 pm to
Harris will 1000% win. Of course not fairly, far from it.
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