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re: Another coincidence in Germany

Posted on 9/3/25 at 3:53 pm to
Posted by SlowFlowPro
With populists, expect populism
Member since Jan 2004
467353 posts
Posted on 9/3/25 at 3:53 pm to
quote:

Also, if they're dead, they're not out campaigning and maybe persuading others to vote for their platform.

You don't think the press over these deaths will give exponentially more coverage to the party? Especially among those more likely to consume echo chamber content related to the AfD?

BBC Article

quote:

North Rhine-Westphalia has a population of 18 million and a reported 20,000 candidates will run for office in its 14 September local elections.

The number of deaths has nevertheless raised questions on social media. The state's interior ministry has pointed out that candidates from other parties, including the Greens and Social Democrats, have also died.


quote:

However, asked about the rumours in his party, the AfD's number two figure in North Rhine-Westphalia, Kay Gottschalk, acknowledged on Tuesday that "what I have in front of me - but that's just partial information - that doesn't back up these suspicions at the moment".

He told Politico's Berlin Playbook Podcast that his party wanted the cases to be investigated "without immediately getting into conspiracy-theory territory". He said they had to tread carefully with the families concerned as they had lost a family member.

Police told Germany's DPA news agency that the four initial deaths were either from natural causes or the cause was not being divulged for reasons of family privacy. The two further deaths have been similarly described.


Sounds like a few were suicides, which wouldn't be shocking considering the population in play. That's my read, which could turn out to be wrong.



That's a cool visual, regardless.
Posted by SlowFlowPro
With populists, expect populism
Member since Jan 2004
467353 posts
Posted on 9/3/25 at 3:54 pm to
quote:

There are still benefits to intimidation / suppression of a movement.

And you don't think the opposite is more likely with the hardliners? Martyrdom is a big selling point to political poles. Then you get into the apocalypse fetishizing...
Posted by Stat M Repairman
Member since Jun 2023
1359 posts
Posted on 9/3/25 at 3:56 pm to
Global Marxist ‘protecting democracy’ by straight up killing their opponent.

An epidemic as of late.

Mexico, Ecuador, Brazil, US, Germany. You know the usual suspects.
Posted by BurlesonCountyAg
Member since Jan 2014
4533 posts
Posted on 9/3/25 at 4:03 pm to
SFP:
Posted by Helo
Orlando
Member since Nov 2004
4753 posts
Posted on 9/3/25 at 4:04 pm to
Interesting.

From Grok:
The probability of exactly 7 people in a group of 50,000 dying from natural causes in a 14-day period is approximately 0.31% (or 0.003

I would hate to be the actuary who underwrote the afD's life insurance.
Posted by djsdawg
Member since Apr 2015
39843 posts
Posted on 9/3/25 at 4:06 pm to
quote:

What is the logic behind it?


Posted by DawgCountry
Great State of GA
Member since Sep 2012
32473 posts
Posted on 9/3/25 at 4:13 pm to
So are you on record saying it’s a coincidence and nothing burger?
Posted by SlowFlowPro
With populists, expect populism
Member since Jan 2004
467353 posts
Posted on 9/3/25 at 4:15 pm to
quote:

So are you on record saying it’s a coincidence and nothing burger?


There's no evidence at this point to support the conspiracy theory, or logic behind the conspiracy theory.

I'll let someone much closer to the situation comment:

quote:

However, asked about the rumours in his party, the AfD's number two figure in North Rhine-Westphalia, Kay Gottschalk, acknowledged on Tuesday that "what I have in front of me - but that's just partial information - that doesn't back up these suspicions at the moment".


As I posted earlier, this CT works if you think of elections the way we have them in America. This will have 0 impact on the election that matters in Germany. That vote is done by party and the individuals don't really matter directly.
Posted by Indefatigable
Member since Jan 2019
35839 posts
Posted on 9/3/25 at 4:17 pm to
quote:

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't the primary determination of the Bundestag breakdown done via Parliamentary voting for the parties, and not the individual candidates? Like they have some hybrid system where the voters get some autonomy in choosing their district rep (if hie party gets enough seats), but the total breakdown of the government is done via a separate, national vote by party?

No, it’s mixed member proportional. Each voter makes two votes—a constituency vote for a specific candidate in your district and a party list vote. There are 299 constituencies which are filled directly by constituency votes/FPTP. Then then remaining seats are filled at the state level using the party list vote nationwide. Essentially, the party list seats “correct” the over/underrepresentation caused by FPTP constituency elections and make each states Bundestag delegation match the overall party list result.
This post was edited on 9/3/25 at 4:27 pm
Posted by TigerAxeOK
Where I lay my head is home.
Member since Dec 2016
35628 posts
Posted on 9/3/25 at 4:18 pm to
quote:

Another AfD candidate found dead. 

Clintoncide or vaccine?
Posted by SoFla Tideroller
South Florida
Member since Apr 2010
39254 posts
Posted on 9/3/25 at 4:19 pm to
Whenever someone or something is labeled "far right" by media you know they are on the correct side of every issue.
Posted by SlowFlowPro
With populists, expect populism
Member since Jan 2004
467353 posts
Posted on 9/3/25 at 4:20 pm to
quote:

a constituency vote for a specific candidate in your district and a party list vote. There are 299 constituencies which are filled directly by constituency votes/FPTP. Then then remaining seats are filled at the state level using the party list vote for each state.

But that's what I was saying, the national/party vote determines the actual proportion in the BS. They add seats to ensure this.
Posted by Indefatigable
Member since Jan 2019
35839 posts
Posted on 9/3/25 at 4:28 pm to
Yea you’re right. It’s both more and less complicated than it sounds
Posted by SlowFlowPro
With populists, expect populism
Member since Jan 2004
467353 posts
Posted on 9/3/25 at 4:31 pm to
People here (and the UK) think in terms of SMD-only elections, so the impact of a candidate dying is much more impactful on the whole. The individual truly matters, and that's who is being voted for.

They don't understand that the real vote to determine proportional representation is for a party directly. The individual-level is far less important.
This post was edited on 9/3/25 at 4:32 pm
Posted by MasterDigger
Member since Nov 2019
2712 posts
Posted on 9/3/25 at 4:40 pm to
quote:

SlowFlowPro

Do you ever not have global dick inside of you somewhere


Posted by SlowFlowPro
With populists, expect populism
Member since Jan 2004
467353 posts
Posted on 9/3/25 at 4:41 pm to
You ask them when I'm discussing a single nation's federal election system?

Is being educated on a topic now the equivalent of "having global dick inside of you"?
Posted by Penrod
Member since Jan 2011
52552 posts
Posted on 9/3/25 at 4:57 pm to
quote:

Follow up question is if these guys had any shot of even winning their local election.

Very little chance, SFP, because the other parties would outlaw them if they look like winners.
Posted by Roaad
White Privilege Broker
Member since Aug 2006
82205 posts
Posted on 9/3/25 at 5:01 pm to
Strategery
Posted by back9Tiger
Island Coconut Salesman
Member since Nov 2005
17645 posts
Posted on 9/3/25 at 5:02 pm to
quote:

Correct me if I'm wrong


Bro, you are always wrong. We can't keep up anymore.
Posted by SlowFlowPro
With populists, expect populism
Member since Jan 2004
467353 posts
Posted on 9/3/25 at 5:24 pm to
quote:

Bro, you are always wrong.


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