A new poll has biden up 12 in Oregon, same margin as Clinton in 2016

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Why would flarda stay close (like it was in 16), but PA swing very blue?

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I don't see Pennsylvania swinging way blue but it wouldn't be insane if it had a bigger spread than Florida. In 2012 Obama won Florida by 0.88% and Pennsylvania by 5.5%. In 2008 it was 2.8% in Florida and 10.32% in Pennsylvania. Florida wants to stay Republican way more than people give it credit for.

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A new poll has biden up 12 in Oregon, same margin as Clinton in 2016
A result like this would SUGGEST that the national outcome would be similar to 2016, right?

That’s what is perplexing. Polls out of flarda, NC, Oregon, etc have the race broadly in line with the 2016 outcome, yet some state polls in key states show biden doing 7-8 points better than hrc?

Just doesn’t make sense

Why would flarda stay close (like it was in 16), but PA swing very blue?

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This board is in denial that the race is a coin flip at best. I'm still focused on the Senate.

Go back over the last 100 years and look at how Incumbants perform in states that they won the previous election cycle.

They almost never lose a state they won, and if they do it was a state they barely won and then barely lost. They almost always increase their vote share.

These 10 point swings the polls are predicting never happen. The only outlier was Jimmy Carter in 1980 but he was a historically bad President and that still had more to do with Southern Democrats realigning their conservative values with Reagan's new Republican movement. No such movement is in play now - and if it is, it's the continuing realignment of blue collar / union types in the Rust Belt switching over to Trump's populist brand.

Note: I'm not saying Trump can't lose MI, WI and PA. He can. He just won't lose them big (ie, the polls are wrong).

If it gets out that nefarious Soros employees are responsible for the wild fires in Oregon, it's over for Democrats.

Because the polls aren't real. You boomers need to wake the frick up and realize they're planning on stealing the election with Mail in votes the day after. That's why they have bullshite polls in the swing states.

Mail in voting with Dem governors changing rules.

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Mail in voting with Dem governors changing rules.

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Kansas has a Dem gov, but is a mostly republican state.

They are sending out mail to all registered voters that invite them torequest an absentee ballot and not have to go to polls in person.

Im mostly fine with this as long as it’s limited to registered voter and absentee.

I’d be more concerned about mass mailing of actual ballots.

Anyone know if that’s actually happening?

No