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Started By
Message
re: 74.1% of US adults have at least one dose. 63.4% of adults are fully vaccinated.
Posted on 8/31/21 at 10:23 pm to Big Scrub TX
Posted on 8/31/21 at 10:23 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:Well it bears repeating that I, nor anyone else, represents "this board".
What fractional chance did you have in mind? The zeitgeist on this board is "everyone is gonna get it eventually" because "the vaccines don't work". What fraction did you have in mind?
There's NO SUCH THING as "everyone is gonna get it" with this or any other virus. Surely you know that. So, again.
Your odds of ending up with permanent loss of smell are about 10% * 75% * whatever the odds of you individually getting Covid AT ALL are.
In other words, I don't happen to know what your individual risk is because I don't know anything about you other than your handle. I mean. If you're 25, your odds of ending up with permanent smell loss are only slightly greater than your odds of being on the first Mars mission. If you're 70, they're somewhat worse.
LOL
1
Posted on 8/31/21 at 10:23 pm to Blue_Rocky
quote:Yes, it's nonsensical. Why don't you give me a number instead of playing coy? Even at 10%, that leaves me with a 70bps chance of permanently losing my smell/taste? frick that. That is WAY more likely than dying this year in a car crash (maybe like 1 in 50K or something like that.)
Yes. Of getting Covid. I mean, did you read the rest of the post you typed this response to? Sheesh. It wasn't that long
Your "gotcha" stats are off by at least an order of magnitude. I have no idea what your angle is. All I said was long covid is essentially my only personal worry about contracting it. So I'm a little more careful (not including attending a massive sporting even unmasked.)
Posted on 8/31/21 at 10:27 pm to Blue_Rocky
quote:I mean, 1 in 3 Americans had it by the end of 2020 - certainly that must be pushing 1 in 2 by now at least. You are acting like my "fractional chance" of getting covid is the same of me randomly getting lupus or something.
There's NO SUCH THING as "everyone is gonna get it" with this or any other virus. Surely you know that. So, again.
quote:
Your odds of ending up with permanent loss of smell are about 10% * 75% * whatever the odds of you individually getting Covid AT ALL are.
Right. And the math - even at 10% - comes out to ~ 1 in 143 (70bps).
quote:By your own math, this is just ludicrously off scale. LOL
In other words, I don't happen to know what your individual risk is because I don't know anything about you other than your handle. I mean. If you're 25, your odds of ending up with permanent smell loss are only slightly greater than your odds of being on the first Mars mission. If you're 70, they're somewhat worse
Posted on 8/31/21 at 10:32 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:
If I just plug in 30% "fractional chance" into your formula, that leaves me with a whopping 2.2% chance of losing my smell/taste permanently.
Well.......given that the Spanish Flu is estimated to have infected only about 1/3 of the world's population and it was one lower in the US and was one of the deadliest pandemics in world history, you're probably a crack high there, don't ya think!
It's probably no accident that after a full year, only a bit over 10% of our population has been infected AND........that is with an ENORMOUS age skew. Again, don't know your vitals, but I'd be stunned if your risk of actually getting it was greater than 5%
Posted on 8/31/21 at 10:33 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:CDC says 39 million cases...........as of NOW
I mean, 1 in 3 Americans had it by the end of 2020
Posted on 8/31/21 at 10:37 pm to Big Scrub TX
I think I see your challenge.
The CDC reports 39M total cases up to today.
You're going with this supposed 1/3 to 1/2 of all Americans number which I'm not sure your sourcing but I suspect it's an estimate of how many got it when you count all those who were never actually identified as getting it.
Which, is fine of course but you CANNOT use that number with the other numbers supplied because those other numbers supplied are as a FUNCTION of the 39M reported cases.
The CDC reports 39M total cases up to today.
You're going with this supposed 1/3 to 1/2 of all Americans number which I'm not sure your sourcing but I suspect it's an estimate of how many got it when you count all those who were never actually identified as getting it.
Which, is fine of course but you CANNOT use that number with the other numbers supplied because those other numbers supplied are as a FUNCTION of the 39M reported cases.
Posted on 8/31/21 at 10:39 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:How old are you?
By your own math, this is just ludicrously off scale. LOL
Because with over 70% of all cases being 70 or over..........do you realize how LOW your odds are of getting the disease and being a "reported case" if say, you're 35?
I'm guessing no because they NEVER like to report the risk that way. If Americans who don't already have a foot on a banana peel realized how absurdly low risk they were, they'd burn DC to the fricking ground
Posted on 8/31/21 at 10:40 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:Admittedly, the Mars mission line was exaggeration for effect.
By your own math, this is just ludicrously off scale. LOL
Posted on 8/31/21 at 10:43 pm to Blue_Rocky
LINK
quote:Right, it's an interpolated number (much like flu infections and deaths every year - it's actually shocking if you look into the flu how truly few are actually recorded and not estimated)
You're going with this supposed 1/3 to 1/2 of all Americans number which I'm not sure your sourcing but I suspect it's an estimate of how many got it when you count all those who were never actually identified as getting it.
quote:
A new study published in the journal Nature estimates that 103 million Americans, or 31 percent of the U.S. population, had been infected with SARS-CoV-2 by the end of 2020. Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health researchers modeled the spread of the coronavirus, finding that fewer than one-quarter of infections (22%) were accounted for in cases confirmed through public health reports based on testing. The study is the first to comprehensively quantify the overall burden and characteristics of COVID-19 in the U.S. during 2020. The researchers simulated the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 within and between all 3,142 U.S. counties using population, mobility, and confirmed case data.
Posted on 8/31/21 at 10:49 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:Which is fine
Right, it's an interpolated number (much like flu infections and deaths every year - it's actually shocking if you look into the flu how truly few are actually recorded and not estimated)
But the numbers for the smell were calculated using reported cases. OBVIOUSLY, they would be lower if calculated as a percent of the entire group of possible cases. Especially when you consider the overwhelming majority of unreported cases are because the people didn't have any symptoms
This post was edited on 8/31/21 at 10:50 pm
Posted on 8/31/21 at 10:51 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:
Right, it's an interpolated number
I don’t think you know what “interpolated” means.
Posted on 8/31/21 at 10:52 pm to Flats
quote:Fine. It's calculated or estimated or whichever verb you want to use to describe being derived from a model and not actually observed by physical count.
I don’t think you know what “interpolated” means.
ETA: I do think interpolated is an acceptable construct to apply here, but I have no interest in not letting you feel superior based on some parsed minutiae.
This post was edited on 8/31/21 at 10:55 pm
Posted on 8/31/21 at 10:57 pm to Blue_Rocky
quote:Eh. I think this cuts both ways. All the people I know who lost their smell (of which only one appears to have "long" loss) never even went to the doctor. I'm not sure how they would have shown up in the stats. I'm not sure that it's true that the overwhelming majority have NO symptoms, but of course a lot of them do.
But the numbers for the smell were calculated using reported cases. OBVIOUSLY, they would be lower if calculated as a percent of the entire group of possible cases. Especially when you consider the overwhelming majority of unreported cases are because the people didn't have any symptoms
In any event, the chances of me getting covid and losing my smell are WAY higher than me dying in a car wreck in the next year or so. And certainly higher than me going to Mars.
Posted on 8/31/21 at 11:05 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:
ETA: I do think interpolated is an acceptable construct to apply here, but I have no interest in not letting you feel superior based on some parsed minutiae.
This is you, right?
quote:
By your own math, this is just ludicrously off scale. LOL
If you want to take obvious hyperbole and swing your dick around about the math you might want to learn the difference between interpolated and extrapolated.
Posted on 8/31/21 at 11:06 pm to Flats
quote:Yes, he was off by at least one order of magnitude.
This is you, right?
quote:It wasn't hyperbole. If anything, it was understated. The hyperbole was saying me getting the long covid symptom of smell loss was similar to the chances of me going to Mars.
If you want to take obvious hyperbole and swing your dick around about the math you might want to learn the difference between interpolated and extrapolated.
LINK
This post was edited on 8/31/21 at 11:08 pm
Posted on 8/31/21 at 11:12 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:
I don't scare easily.
You come across like Biden today trying to convince us the Afghanistan withdrawal was an amazing success.
Posted on 8/31/21 at 11:13 pm to David_DJS
quote:How so?
You come across like Biden today trying to convince us the Afghanistan withdrawal was an amazing success.
Posted on 8/31/21 at 11:39 pm to Froman
Gfy cuck there are billboards all over Portland with happy maskless people and the message “get back to normal - get the vaccine”.
Clearly remnants of their lie
Clearly remnants of their lie
Posted on 9/1/21 at 7:48 am to SirWinston
A few things can be (and are) true.
1. At the beginning of the rollout the vaccine manufacturers absolutely, unequivocally said that the vaccine would not completely stop you from getting the virus, nor would it stop you from transmitting the virus. They were however incredibly effective at minimizing the severity of cases.
2. 4 months later, after 142 million injections were administered, CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky said publicly "“Vaccinated people do not carry the virus — they don’t get sick.”
She was full of shite. She was taking the same approach that many others have taken in trying to 'sell' getting the vaccine. She absolutely should not have said that. People in her own organization pumped the brakes in response to her comments.
"Even the Centers for Disease Control hedged on Walensky’s claims. “Dr. Walensky spoke broadly during this interview,” a CDC spokesperson told the Times. “It’s possible that some people who are fully vaccinated could get Covid-19. The evidence isn’t clear whether they can spread the virus to others. We are continuing to evaluate the evidence.”
Through this whole thing, the errors in interpretation are at least somewhat understandable.
The outright, blatant deceit is absolutely not acceptable.
1. At the beginning of the rollout the vaccine manufacturers absolutely, unequivocally said that the vaccine would not completely stop you from getting the virus, nor would it stop you from transmitting the virus. They were however incredibly effective at minimizing the severity of cases.
2. 4 months later, after 142 million injections were administered, CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky said publicly "“Vaccinated people do not carry the virus — they don’t get sick.”
She was full of shite. She was taking the same approach that many others have taken in trying to 'sell' getting the vaccine. She absolutely should not have said that. People in her own organization pumped the brakes in response to her comments.
"Even the Centers for Disease Control hedged on Walensky’s claims. “Dr. Walensky spoke broadly during this interview,” a CDC spokesperson told the Times. “It’s possible that some people who are fully vaccinated could get Covid-19. The evidence isn’t clear whether they can spread the virus to others. We are continuing to evaluate the evidence.”
Through this whole thing, the errors in interpretation are at least somewhat understandable.
The outright, blatant deceit is absolutely not acceptable.
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