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re: 3rd quarter GDP second estimate bumped up from 3.0% to 3.3%
Posted on 11/29/17 at 12:07 pm to 90proofprofessional
Posted on 11/29/17 at 12:07 pm to 90proofprofessional
You seem to be ignoring anything pre Clinton.
So if you look at the "average post Clinton, and even at that 2% is below average, right?
So if you look at the "average post Clinton, and even at that 2% is below average, right?
1
Posted on 11/29/17 at 12:09 pm to buckeye_vol
Like I said, we have two projections, one from the CBO who of late hasn't been that accurate, and one from Trump which is unproven but we all know is self serving.
I hope Trump is right, you?
I hope Trump is right, you?
Posted on 11/29/17 at 12:11 pm to buckeye_vol
slightly off-topic but i just went look back at the data in the 50's-70's to see what was normal in those years, and noted that there was a two-year "recession" in the 60's where GDP growth was a positive 2.6% in both years. 
look at that. you'd commonly see years of 5, 7, 8%
and then a quick pop down to just under 0 but not often worse than -1% during recessions
in the 90's & later, no years of 5%. and the expansions (white background) seem to step down after each recession
look at that. you'd commonly see years of 5, 7, 8%
and then a quick pop down to just under 0 but not often worse than -1% during recessions
in the 90's & later, no years of 5%. and the expansions (white background) seem to step down after each recession
Posted on 11/29/17 at 12:16 pm to Yak
quote:
Recovery from what?
The awesomeness of the previous 8 yrs
Sarcasm OFF
Posted on 11/29/17 at 12:16 pm to doubleb
quote:
You seem to be ignoring anything pre Clinton.
So if you look at the "average post Clinton, and even at that 2% is below average, right?
Actually after 99-2000, i got a 1.8% average. 1.95 if clinton's last FY is included
But this is beside the point
Posted on 11/29/17 at 12:17 pm to doubleb
quote:I don't really care about the CBO projection given their strict assumptions. That's why I asked what the Whitehouse based its projecttions on. If it's an actual empirical model then I would give it more credence.
Like I said, we have two projections, one from the CBO who of late hasn't been that accurate, and one from Trump which is unproven but we all know is self serving.
Looking at OECD projections, it appears they're projecting about 2.6% growth through 2024; however, it's projecting a gradual decrease each year.
quote:Sure. But I wouldn’t base my own budget on what I hope happens, and I also wouldn’t ignore the risk of growth below expectation. So why wouldn’t I expect the businessman outsider to do the same rather than the status quo way of doing things?
I hope Trump is right, you?
This post was edited on 11/29/17 at 12:25 pm
Posted on 11/29/17 at 12:17 pm to doubleb
quote:
I hope Trump is right, you?
Maybe we shouldn't be making such gigantic policy decisions on this kind of basis
Posted on 11/29/17 at 5:16 pm to GumboPot
quote:WSJ
The U.S. economy is running at its full potential for the first time in a decade,
But I thought that Obama, Clinton, and the liberals said that 2% was the new normal. I guess that is why socialism always fails. It's based on ppl not meeting their potential.
Posted on 11/30/17 at 11:20 am to GumboPot
quote:
The Atlanta Fed GDPNow will update their 4th quarter forecast tomorrow. That will be interesting. Their 4Q17 forecast currently stands at 3.4%.
Not a great update. 2.7%
Posted on 11/30/17 at 11:23 am to 90proofprofessional
Do quarterly GDP estimates estimate growth for that quarter, or is it annualized?
Posted on 11/30/17 at 11:35 am to 90proofprofessional
quote:
Not a great update. 2.7%
Just noticed that.
After watching GDP Now for the last few months it's probably better to take every update with a grain of salt. Each update is based on a new economic report and this update in particular is based on "the forecast of fourth-quarter real consumer spending growth fell from 3.3 percent to 2.6 percent after this morning's personal income and outlays release from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis."
I've also notices that GDP Now forecast have been off about 0.6% each quarter versus the third and final estimate from the BEA.
Posted on 11/30/17 at 11:38 am to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:
Do quarterly GDP estimates estimate growth for that quarter, or is it annualized?
Just for the quarter.
Posted on 11/30/17 at 11:44 am to GumboPot
in recent quarters it has tended to start off high and gradually taper
Posted on 11/30/17 at 11:45 am to GumboPot
they annualize it to an annualized rate (BEA)
GDPnow tries to predict what BEA will put out, so it's an annualized quarter too
GDPnow tries to predict what BEA will put out, so it's an annualized quarter too
Posted on 11/30/17 at 11:45 am to GumboPot
Wait, so does that mean our economy really grows like 8% on the year? If there are 4 quarters each with 2% growth.
Posted on 11/30/17 at 11:48 am to doubleb
quote:
Bingo, they'll find some outliers and push them to the forefront and tell us the recovery left these unfortunate people behind. They'll tell us its better for everyone to creep forward in a malaise than for many to jump forward with a few left behind.
"World to End: Poor, minorities hardest Hit"
Posted on 11/30/17 at 12:16 pm to 90proofprofessional
Well me shoot from the hip guess was damn close, right?
Posted on 11/30/17 at 12:57 pm to VOLhalla
quote:
Growth above 3% is a sign of an economy heading towards instability. Ideal growth rate for our economy is between 2-3%, a number we’ve hit multiple times under Obama and, fortunately, it looks like we will be between 2-3% for 2017 too.
quote:
VOLhalla
Are you retarded?
Posted on 11/30/17 at 2:37 pm to doubleb
quote:
Well me shoot from the hip guess was damn close, right?
your post read like you were saying 2% is below the post-Clinton average, but that average turned out to be 1.8%Posted on 12/4/17 at 10:47 am to 90proofprofessional
quote:
Not a great update. 2.7%
GDPNow now forecasting 3.5% for the fourth quarter:
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