2019 Louisiana Gov. In-Game Thread, JBE/RISPONE Runoff! Abraham/Trump endorse Rispone!

Politards - 100%
LA - 0%

JBE gets close to 45%
Rispone narrowly edges out Abraham to make the runoff

JBE 45%

Don't know or care enough about the others. Think it will be a fun runoff with TRUMP coming in to swing his huge orange testicles around and likely putting the GOP candidate over the top.

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JBE 37%

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Others - 'Bout 3.50%

IF JBE some how ends up with less than 40% of the vote, he should concede tomorrow night.

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Basing my number off 2015. He got 39% in that year, that’s before everyone knew he was a communist and with a more fractured GOP field with Vitter, Dardenne, and Angelle. This was also pre-Trump. Not so much clutter this time around.

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Yea, I understand that logic but you're ignoring the incumbency factor. People have to be angry or dissatisfied with an incumbent enough to get out and
a) vote
b) vote against him/her

I think 98% of those who voted for him last time will do so again this time. The biggest unknown is how many conservatives who stayed home last time will come out and vote for one of the republicans this time? Then the bigger question after that becomes how many losing republican voters show up again in November during the runoff to vote for their 2nd choice republican.

Lots of unknown factors in this election. It could go either way.

Edwards 45
Rispone 28
Abraham 23

I voted for JBE, and I’m not doing it again.

Based on your theory roughly 20 percent of Abraham’s supporters hate Rispone so much they vote for Edwards out of spite (or vice versa).

That’s just not going to happen.

Last time there were 3 R’s in the primary. Vitter was shitty to both of them, and just a scorched earth politician who was never going to win. David Vitter, and no one else handed the election to JBE. He’s so unbearable that he made JBE seem reasonable.

There’s no Rispone supporter pissed off at Abraham enough to vote for JBE. Or pissed off enough to stay home. One hundred percent of Rispone voters go to Abraham.

Of Abraham’s supporters, none of them have JBE as their second choice. While a minor percent will stay home because of the most innocuous attack ad in Louisiana political history, those that vote will vote Rispone. Rispone loses 5 percent or so of Abraham’s voters and JBE gains zero.