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Anthony Davis - odds to win NBA MVP
Posted on 9/5/14 at 12:00 pm
Posted on 9/5/14 at 12:00 pm
I was looking at Saints prop odds earlier and happened to click on NBA. Anthony Davis' odds stood out to me.
Odds to win 2014/2015 NBA Regular Season MVP
LeBron James +160 ($100 bet wins $160 for $260 return)
Kevin Durant +300
Derrick Rose +1200
Blake Griffin +1500
Chris Paul +1500
Carmelo Anthony +2000
Anthony Davis +2500 ($100 bet wins $2500 for $2600 return)
James Harden +3000
Kevin Love +4000
LaMarcus Aldridge +4000
Stephen Curry +5000
Russell Westbrook +5000
Dwight Howard +6000
I'd say that Davis is the 3rd most likely to win MVP behind LeBron and Durant and accurate/true odds should be more like 10-1. Right now he's 25-1 which is an insane value for a speculative play.
True odds IMO
LeBron 40%
Durant 40%
Davis 10%
Field 10%
Odds to win 2014/2015 NBA Regular Season MVP
LeBron James +160 ($100 bet wins $160 for $260 return)
Kevin Durant +300
Derrick Rose +1200
Blake Griffin +1500
Chris Paul +1500
Carmelo Anthony +2000
Anthony Davis +2500 ($100 bet wins $2500 for $2600 return)
James Harden +3000
Kevin Love +4000
LaMarcus Aldridge +4000
Stephen Curry +5000
Russell Westbrook +5000
Dwight Howard +6000
I'd say that Davis is the 3rd most likely to win MVP behind LeBron and Durant and accurate/true odds should be more like 10-1. Right now he's 25-1 which is an insane value for a speculative play.
True odds IMO
LeBron 40%
Durant 40%
Davis 10%
Field 10%
This post was edited on 9/5/14 at 12:06 pm
4
Posted on 9/5/14 at 12:35 pm to SirWinston
quote:
I'd say that Davis is the 3rd most likely to win MVP
That's crazy talk. Here's the list of previous winners. LINK You essentially have to be the best player on a top 4 team in the league. If your team isn't a 1 or 2 seed you aren't winning the MVP. I'd say there's a 5% chance that happens. EVERYTHING would have to go right for the team this season, including enough injuries for one of San Antonio or OKC to drop out of the top 2.
This post was edited on 9/5/14 at 12:39 pm
Posted on 9/5/14 at 12:38 pm to TigerinATL
I would put odds of 49% Lebron, 49% Durant, 2% Other.
Posted on 9/5/14 at 12:40 pm to Fun Bunch
With other being Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Derrick Rose. Maybe CP3 if age finally catches up with the Spurs, which has to become a true statement sooner or later.
This post was edited on 9/5/14 at 12:42 pm
Posted on 9/5/14 at 12:46 pm to TigerinATL
I disagree - Steve Nash's wins would be a viable comparison to AD and now that both LeBron and Durant have won the MVP the natural inclination would be to find the next unique winner.
Obviously the MVP needs to make the playoffs, start in the All Star Game, and have a top 3 PER. Those are the only "musts" that I can think of and AD has a legit shot to achieve each.
If the Pelicans make the playoffs and Davis has the best PER (not that unlikely) I'd say he's got incredible odds to win the award.
Obviously the MVP needs to make the playoffs, start in the All Star Game, and have a top 3 PER. Those are the only "musts" that I can think of and AD has a legit shot to achieve each.
If the Pelicans make the playoffs and Davis has the best PER (not that unlikely) I'd say he's got incredible odds to win the award.
This post was edited on 9/5/14 at 12:47 pm
Posted on 9/5/14 at 12:49 pm to TigerinATL
quote:
With other being Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Derrick Rose. Maybe CP3 if age finally catches up with the Spurs, which has to become a true statement sooner or later.
No way to the Spurs or Rose - they all play very restricted minutes now.
CP3 unlikely as Griffin is now the most dynamic/hyped and arguably the best player on that team and CP3 has started to coast in the regular season a bit.
LeBron's numbers should go down while they figure things out in Cleveland and while he has more reliable scoring options as teammates.
I'd actually say KD is more likely to win than LeBron. AD is clearly 3rd most likely b/c he's the undisputed #1, he's been annointed as the "next superstar", and he's young enough to rack up the minutes and stats b/c he's just entering his prime.
This post was edited on 9/5/14 at 12:51 pm
Posted on 9/5/14 at 12:51 pm to SirWinston
Steve Nash didn't do it in "the age of Lebron". Lebron is the unquestioned best player in the world at this point, and one of the best players in history. Durant got it this year, and even that was controversial.
It will be one of those two for the forseeable future.
AD would have to average 30/11/3 and have us as a Top 5 seed in order to even sniff the MVP.
It will be one of those two for the forseeable future.
AD would have to average 30/11/3 and have us as a Top 5 seed in order to even sniff the MVP.
Posted on 9/5/14 at 12:58 pm to SirWinston
quote:
AD is clearly 3rd most likely b/c he's the undisputed #1
You're clearly being willfully ignorant of the politics of the award. Throw your money away if you want to, but the Pelicans are not going to be a top 2 seed so AD isn't going to win MVP.
Posted on 9/5/14 at 1:16 pm to SirWinston
AD aint winning the MVP. Even if we are the number 1 seed, he wont win it.
This post was edited on 9/5/14 at 1:17 pm
Posted on 9/5/14 at 1:22 pm to Hester Carries
quote:
AD aint winning the MVP. Even if we are the number 1 seed, he wont win it.
if we are the number 1 seed, it's because AD is putting up 25/13/4 and he will win MVP
Posted on 9/5/14 at 1:23 pm to quail man
quote:
if we are the number 1 seed, it's because AD is putting up 25/13/4 and he will win MVP
I want to believe he would win it then, but i dont think he would.
Posted on 9/5/14 at 1:30 pm to Hester Carries
That's crazy talk too. If Davis takes the team from out of the playoffs to the #1 seed, he'll be the MVP.
Posted on 9/5/14 at 1:34 pm to SirWinston
Everyone is missing the point:
Boom
quote:
Anthony Davis +2500
James Harden +3000
Boom
Posted on 9/5/14 at 3:01 pm to SirWinston
quote:
I disagree - Steve Nash's wins would be a viable comparison to AD and now that both LeBron and Durant have won the MVP the natural inclination would be to find the next unique winner.
What?!
1) Nash and the Suns had the best and 2nd best record in the NBA when he won. They also went to the conference finals both years. Nash had also already been in the league about 8 or 9 years and had been an All Star.
2) They don't look for unique winners. It's the same names over and over. In the past 30 years, there have only been 17 winners:
Bird, Bird, Bird, Magic, Jordon, Magic, Magic, Jordan, Jordan, Barkley, Jordan, Olajuwon, Robinson, Jordan, Malone, Jordan, Malone, Shaq, Iverson, Duncan, Duncan, KG, Nash, Nash, Nowitzki, Kobe, LBJ, LBJ, Rose, LBJ, LBJ, Durant.
Posted on 9/5/14 at 3:21 pm to TigerinATL
quote:
That's crazy talk
quote:
That's crazy talk too.
Seems to be a common theme lol.
also, I don't know how you can make the Nash/AD comparison. as already stated, the suns were in the conference finals and Nash was an established all star at the time.
Posted on 9/5/14 at 3:32 pm to whoknows1390
You guys are making strong points.
I could still see a scenario where KD gets hurt and misses a month, LeBron and the Cavs kind of coast into the 3rd seed and his numbers are down, and AD is leading PER, hasn't missed a game, and the Pellies are a competitive 5th seed in the ultra- tough West.
I guess it's not as likely as I initially thought though.
I could still see a scenario where KD gets hurt and misses a month, LeBron and the Cavs kind of coast into the 3rd seed and his numbers are down, and AD is leading PER, hasn't missed a game, and the Pellies are a competitive 5th seed in the ultra- tough West.
I guess it's not as likely as I initially thought though.
Posted on 9/5/14 at 6:50 pm to Hester Carries
quote:
if we are the number 1 seed, it's because AD is putting up 25/13/4 and he will win MVP
i would like to think in a fair world that this would be the case, but from past history (cough cough CP3) i don't think it would happen. media bias towards larger market teams is insane with the obvious exception of LeBron. Hopefully the times have changed with durant winning it in okc this past year
Posted on 9/5/14 at 8:28 pm to SirWinston
quote:
I'd say that Davis is the 3rd most likely to win MVP
Don't think so. Everyone is hyper about AD's leap in skills and the world is getting to see it first hand. However, as many talking heads have pointed out, AD has to show he can carry a team deep into the playoffs in order to be considered the MVP.
Here's the good news: AD should enable us to compete in the free agent market without paying a King's ransom. Guys will want to play with the best big man in the business.
Here's the bad news: we're dependent upon Monty and Dell getting their act together to put us in a position where there's a realistic chance of making a run.
Posted on 9/6/14 at 12:11 am to adono
quote:
Here's the bad news: we're dependent upon Monty and Dell getting their act together to put us in a position where there's a realistic chance of making a run.
Honestly it's up to monty now.
Posted on 9/6/14 at 10:47 am to quail man
quote:
25/13/4
4 Blocks? If so, automatic MVP. I have no stats to back this up, but I'd be shocked if anyone ever put those numbers up in the modern era.
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