re: Looks like they will open the Bonnet Carré Spillway

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The Sportsman

Look up some history about what happened when they did it in 73'

the river has been trying to change course for years. It would be a HUGE mistake to open Morganza again.

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Okay, I'm confused...or just stupid. Either way, here goes. Isnt' AlxTgr's research showing that had they NOT opened it, that would have been a huge mistake and changed it's course back then? No?

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The structure was opened once, however, in 1973. While that was during a major flood, the reason for opening the structure was to take the pressure off of the Old River Control Structure just upstream. The main dam in the Old River Control project was crumbling, and if it failed completely, the Mississippi River would have changed course right then and there. The Morganza Floodway drained off enough water and the Old River Control Structure held, saving the day.

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LINK

This is why it would be bad... All of this almost happened on 73' with no controlled flow through the Morganza spillway. It flooded everything (cities, farms, etc) and they almost didn't get it diverted back down the Mississippi River.

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In the aftermath of the huge floods that would cause the main flow of the river to jump to the Atchafalaya River, aside from the cost, anxiety, tragedy, and aggravation of dealing with massive amounts of water being in the wrong place, there would be lingering issues that would change the way of life on the lower Mississippi.  Instead of 70% flow down the lower Mississippi and 30% flow down the Atchafalaya, the percentages would probably reverse.  The Atchafalaya would be a rushing, raging river, even during the fall for a period of time until it scoured the channel and filled in the lower reaches so that the flow would diminish.  Morgan City would have to be relocated, as would other communities and many businesses, possibly including the massive infrastructure of the offshore oil and gas industry.  Fisheries would be altered measurably all across the delta.  Oyster reefs would be immediately destroyed, and would take several years to reestablish and become productive (no erysters!).  It would probably take two decades to adapt to the new environment around present day Morgan City.  Additionally, pipelines, bridges, and the like that cross the Atchafalaya would be destroyed or rendered unsafe.  The ruptured natural gas pipelines would place stress on fuel supplies for energy companies, but they would quickly change to more costly fuel sources and have little or no interruption of service.  Imagine the traffic jams when and if bridges on I-10, U.S. 90, and U.S. 190 collapse (what about the railroads)?  All trans-state traffic would have to be rerouted to I-20 via I-55 through Jackson, Mississippi, adding up to 615 miles to the trip (not to mention time delays from the traffic jams).   The protective levees of the Atchafalaya Basin would have to be upgraded to handle the new pressure from spring flows.  And, oh my gosh, think of the negative impact on the crawfish supply!

The lower Mississippi would still have a copious amount of water, but it would be slack compared to today.  Shipping could continue to be an important industry, but it would be interrupted for a time.  The slack water would allow (cause) the thalweg to fill in and stop deep-draft shipping.  However, after intensive dredging efforts it may be found that a 50 ft channel can be easily maintained because of the tremendous decrease in sediment.  New Orleans, possibly Baton Rouge, and all other cities and towns along the lower Mississippi would no longer be able to get their drinking water from the river.  It would become too salty, since the lower fresh water flow would not offset the tidal movement of the Gulf.  Can you imagine the cost of piping or trucking enough drinking (and flushing, etc.) water from north of Lake Pontchartrain to supply the needs of Greater New Orleans?  Can you imagine Greater New Orleans without water for drinking and sanitation?  Even when the water was just barely increasing in salinity, there would be severe damage to water heaters, fire sprinklers, fire truck pumping systems, and more.  The quality of our coffee!  As mentioned above, the fisheries (especially those associated with the fresh water river) would suddenly change.  And what about the massive petrochemical industry corridor?  Aside from the impact on shipping, which they could weather over time, industry could no longer use fresh river water for thermo-electric cooling.  The saltier water would corrode all the pipes and related instrumentation.  Of course, industry would change to salt-tolerant materials, but that would be costly and time consuming.  Also, the sugarcane industry would have problems without sufficient fresh water.

All of this adjustment, and we have not delved into the intensity of impact on people's lives during the crisis and the adjustment period.  All normal routines would stop.  Businesses would be closed, as would schools, normal government, etc., etc.  Virtually the entire population would spend months and months just coping - just putting their and others' lives back together.  Imagine the emotional strain to the population - people losing a lifetime of accomplishment.  This would be a tragedy of monumental proportions.  It would interrupt life much like World War II. 

One can also imagine the impact on the nation.  Massive use of Federal dollars to protect and restore Louisiana's infrastructure.  Loss of natural gas (there would be brown-outs throughout the eastern seaboard).  Commerce would be interrupted by restriction of travel and Louisiana=s inability to focus on supplying items traditionally demanded from her natural resources by the nation.  Prices of all Louisiana products (from the natural resources [fisheries, oil, gas] to industrial products [poly vinyl chloride, polyethelene, etc.]) would soar.  The interruption of the pogie fisheries would be very negative for such food industries as chicken, catfish, and hogs (see the last section of the notes).  New Orleans is one of the most important ports in the nation, and it would suddenly cease to function; all shipping and related industries on the Mississippi River would stop.  International trade would be further imbalanced.  The massive fertilizer business would shut down and the agriculture industry would falter. 

And what about the economy of south Louisiana?  For a period of time, all the revenue would dry up and tourism would collapse.   Even Mardi Gras would possibly come to a halt!!!   Only the mosquitoes would do well!  And probably the cockroaches and Formosan termites. 

Long term, we would adapt.  Once the drinking and sanitation water issues were resolved, tourism would return.  Coastal erosion could be reversed on the west side of the present-day Mississippi River.  Shrimp, oysters, and other fisheries would probably flourish after a number of years due to new marshes being produced and nutrient rich sediments being redistributed.

This would obviously place a lot of stress on at least two generations of residents.  We would survive, but it would be a new Louisiana and Mississippi River delta. 

 What condition might potentially lead to this scenario?   Experts predict that the ORCS might fail if the snowfall between Saskatchewan and New York exceeds that of the winter of 1972-73.

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Okay, I'm confused...or just stupid. Either way, here goes. Isnt' AlxTgr's research showing that had they NOT opened it, that would have been a huge mistake and changed it's course back then? No

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the river pretty much did change direction and as I said, almost stayed that way while flooding EVERY small town near the Atchafalaya Basin. My dad knows more on the topic than I do bc I wasn't born at the time but basically they will only open it if New Orleans is going down. And there will be a serious risk of not being able to ever reverse it as this happened almost 40 years ago and the pressure at the Old River Control Structure is way greater than it was then

Flood stage of Morgan City is 4'. It was 10'something in 73'. Imagine what 6 extra ft
of water can do. The Atchafalaya was at 7' a couple years ago and was only feet from the top of the levee.... I couldn't imagine it at 10'

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The Sportsman

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I think i get it now. Your saying if it gets bad enough that they have to open Morganza, it's likely that by that point the ORCS would be FUBAR'd and shite will go down. And of course once we lose control of flow into the Atchafalaya there's no way we could reverse it.

That would seriously blow.

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I may would watch New Orleans get washed into the Gulf to keep Morgan City and all the others.

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Are you retarded? Seriuos question.

kinda off topic, but they have an area right south of opelousas to the east of I49. some people have said that the mississippi used to flow there way way back. I always called bullshite and I have found a few mentions of it on the net but nothing concrete,

North of Lafayette, motorists on I-49 will parallel the ancient Mississippi river bed north of Carencro, and through Grand Coteau, just south of Opelousas.

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yeah the roaring courtableau river....

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Yes indeed. Seriuos answer.

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Okay.

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Posted by AlxTgr
Well, I guess I still don't get it. If the conditions dictate, opening Morganza has to be done. Not opening is the disaster scenario.

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The population that would be affected this time around is a lot greater than that of 73'. (more people living in the floodway) It's a disaster either way. But like I said, It would be a mistake to open it unless they were 100% sure NO was going down. Everytime the river rises, they are worried about the Old River Control Structure holding. Sooner or later it won't. I would imagine if they were seriously considering opening it at this point they would have already notified residents to start to gather their things and evacuate.. As you and I know, river stages are pretty predictable.

Eta: you think of disaster in terms of saving people. I think of disaster as changing life as we know it. If they open it and the river changes course, everything we know will change.