re: Zeta - The cleanup begins

Looks to really be gaining strength. The eye is forming very rapidly.
With the increase strength will it shift more to the west ?

10-4. Thx for all the insight

Man i'm not liking this at all.

Getting a little breeze in BR already.

Just took the new dog out
It’s muggy AF

Didn't think I'd see this at 3am when I went to bed earlier. Impressive

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT ZETA IS STRENGTHENING... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND STRONG WINDS EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BEGINNING AROUND MIDDAY...
4:00 AM CDT Wed Oct 28
Location: 25.1°N 91.8°W
Moving: NNW at 17 mph
Min pressure: 982 mb
Max sustained: 85 mph

They did
FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 27.9N 91.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 35SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 50SW 60NW.

Was in the Forecast Advisory part

Hurricane Zeta Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
400 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020

The satellite presentation of Zeta has improved significantly
overnight with deep convection wrapping around an eye that at times
as been fairly well defined. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft that has just began its reconnaissance mission into Zeta
has reported a pressure that has fallen to 982 mb and a 25-30
n-mi-wide eye during it first pass through the center. It is
somewhat surprising that the plane did not report stronger winds
during its northeast eyewall pass given the improved satellite
presentation, and using a blend of the aircraft data and recent
objective and subjective satellite estimates yields and initial
intensity of 75 kt. It is possible the winds have yet to catch up
to the improved satellite appearance, but since Zeta will moving
over warm waters and in a light wind shear environment this morning
some additional strengthening is likely. Although cooler waters
and increasing southwesterly upper-level winds over the northern
Gulf of Mexico are likely to cause the cyclone's intensity to
level-off or even come down slightly, Zeta is expected to reach the
northern Gulf coast as significant hurricane by late this afternoon.
The NHC intensity forecast is at the upper-end of the guidance, a
little above the latest HWRF prediction. After landfall, Zeta will
weaken while it moves over the southeastern United States, but the
cyclone is forecast to become an extratropical gale-force low
pressure area off the Mid-Atlantic coast Thursday night. The
post-tropical cyclone should be absorbed by frontal boundary over
the western Atlantic on Friday.

Zeta has turned north-northwestward and has begun to accelerate as
anticipated. A vigorous upper-level low moving into west Texas
will cause Zeta to accelerate north-northeastward today, which will
bring the center of the hurricane over southeastern Louisiana by
late this afternoon. The cyclone is expected to continue to
accelerate ahead of the trough over the southeastern United States
tonight and Thursday. The dynamical model are in very good
agreement and the latest NHC track is a blend of the various global
models. The new track forecast is very close the previous official
forecast.

Given Zeta's acceleration near landfall, strong winds are likely
to spread well inland along the northern Gulf coast this evening
and tonight.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. A life-threatening storm surge is expected along portions of the
northern Gulf Coast by late today, with the highest inundation
occurring somewhere between the Mouth of the Pearl River and Dauphin
Island, Alabama. Residents in the Storm Surge Warning area should
follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected this afternoon within portions
of the Hurricane Warning area between Morgan City, Louisiana, and
the Mississippi/Alabama border. Damaging winds, especially in gusts,
will spread well inland across portions of southeast Mississippi and
southern and central Alabama tonight due to Zeta's fast forward
speed.

3. Through Thursday, heavy rainfall is expected from portions of the
central U.S. Gulf Coast into the Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley,
Southern to Central Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic States near and
in advance of Zeta. This rainfall will lead to flash, urban, small
stream, and minor river flooding.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 25.1N 91.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 27.9N 91.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 32.8N 87.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
36H 29/1800Z 37.5N 79.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 30/0600Z 40.5N 67.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

quote:

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going to raise the forecast to 100 mph

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frick me to tears