re: Zeta - The cleanup begins

I would also like to revisit my theory that the Hurricanes have become sentient and they are attacking the home of the Hurricane Hunter planes.

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I don't think anything has a great handle on the positioning and forecast for that low out west. GFS may be seeing that slow down and equating it to less shear on approac

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Having two things phase together...yeah I'd agree it's tricky and pretty damn uncertain to be three days out.

That is what the GFS is seeing though, and it typically is too progressive with these things and might just be doing it's normal slowing down. It's slight but it's enough to explain why the GFS manages to get a hurricane at landfall.

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It wouldn't be unprecedented, but I'm not buying a hurricane at landfall right now. We need some soundings from NM to GA now to throw in the mix.

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We have the normal soundings in at this point and all the energy is basically inland now over the west. So that should really start working its self out soon. I'm not sold on hurricane at landfall either because of the wall of hate coming at it but it's certainly plausible if the timing works out like the 00z GFS.

Also need to see the state of things coming off the Yucatan.

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I would also like to revisit my theory that the Hurricanes have become sentient and they are attacking the home of the Hurricane Hunter planes.

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I thought that was obvious.

I’m here for all the updates

00Z Euro

Euro sets the western edge, per usual with a Morgan City up to Baton Rouge kind of path. First run of the Euro that's had a reasonably strong storm also. It's the western solution for the same reason it has been all year. Slower with the upper low, ridge extends farther west. Storm goes farther west before getting turned. The Euro is also slower with the storm as well, more in line with the hurricane models.



First of our 00z ensembles with a tight cluster over SELA with many showing at least a strong TS. A secondary cluster more toward the middle part of the LA coast. Hopefully the EPS will share the operational's reasonable strength and have a more usable ensemble package.

What is notable is, after we had upper air data put into the models for 00z, the spread narrowed to primarily SELA. Also, our entire preferred suite of models all have a strong TS/Cat 1 landfall late Wednesday (GFS is a little faster though). Also, the eastern solutions have been dropped from the GFS ensemble and wasn't there to begin with on the Euro.

Overall, not a great trend for those of us east of I55.

Finally, recon finds a stronger Zeta tonight. First pass was down to 994 and could justify a 65-70 mph max wind imo. Next pass will come into the NE side, and if the strengthening phase is to continue you'd expect some decent winds near the center on that side as a sign of it starting to wrap a band around the northside of the circulation. It's still lopsided though, with the center sitting in the NW part of the big convective blob, showing there is still northerly shear pushing on the storm.

That about covers it I think.



NHC might shift a little east at 4 am but should be roughly unchanged with the NOLA metro in the crosshairs.

Surface estimate max of 66 kt thus far with plenty of flight level 65-70 kt readings. That's probably enough to upgrade to a hurricane with a 75 mph max. Will see what pressure looks like. It's still not a super tight windfield but the big increase on the NE side is expected if the storm is strengthening.



Still very lopsided with not much wind on the western side of the storm, so it's not about to really pop off or anything even if it gets a hurricane designation at 4 am. Lacks the organization to get much stronger in the near term.



Euro ensembles with two clusters. The weaker ones end up in SWLA and the ones more in line with the strength the global models are showing clustered in SELA.

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Recent aircraft fixes indicate that Zeta has begun its expected
northwestward motion at about 315 degrees at 8 kt. The storm should
begin to move at an even faster pace toward the northwest as a
mid-level ridge builds over the western Atlantic and Florida during
the next 24 to 36 hours. This ridge will steer Zeta across the
northern portion of the Yucatan peninsula tonight, and over the
south-central Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. A vigorous mid- to
upper-level trough currently over the western United States is
forecast to begin ejecting out of the southwestern U.S. by mid-week,
which will erode the western portion of the aforementioned ridge.
This should cause Zeta to accelerate northward and approach the
northern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday. The 0000 UTC global models,
which incorporated dropwindsonde data from the earlier NOAA G-IV
synoptic surveillance mission, have come into somewhat better
agreement this cycle. While there is still some spread on exactly
when the northward turn takes place and how quickly Zeta accelerates
north-northeastward over the Gulf of Mexico, the cross-track spread
at 60 h is about half of what it was before, resulting in an
increase in track-forecast confidence.

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With the recent improvement in the outflow over Zeta, it appears
that the shear that had prevented strengthening has abated. The
shear ahead of the storm is expected to remain low while the cyclone
traverses the deep, warm water of the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
As a result, Zeta is forecast to become a hurricane this morning,
and continued strengthening is likely until Zeta moves over the
Yucatan peninsula this evening. The landfall intensity is likely to
be a little stronger than shown below since Zeta will be inland over
the Yucatan peninsula by the 24-hour forecast point. Environmental
conditions over the southern Gulf of Mexico are forecast to be
conducive for some re-strengthening as Zeta moves over the
south-central Gulf on Tuesday. Increasing shear and the cooler
shelf waters of the northern Gulf are likely to result in some
reduction in intensity before Zeta reaches the northern Gulf coast.

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Still being forecast to be a high end TS or possibly a minimal hurricane at landfall but at least should be on the way down instead of strengthening.

Also, it's going to be hauling dick by landfall. 06z GFS has it going from roughly Grand Isle to the Alabama/Miss line north of Mobile in 6 hours. So while SELA and Miss Coast would be in line for the worst of the winds...they won't last very long.

Timing for landfall, per NHC advisory, will be sometime Wednesday evening.

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the latest track

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in for being in the cone

Destroya camping slogan of being 6 for 6 anti hurricane mayor about to go up in smoke. Fitting for 2020.

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