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Started By
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1
Posted on 10/25/20 at 10:09 pm to fightin tigers
quote:
That track looks to be right over BTR.
Like Gustav
Posted on 10/25/20 at 10:19 pm to LaBR4
You know those early am storm watch phone alarms are coming.
Posted on 10/25/20 at 10:19 pm to Cosmo
quote:
Center is irrelevant. System will be a sheared mess with worst stuff 50-100 miles east
Peej?
Posted on 10/25/20 at 10:20 pm to SECbro
Posted on 10/25/20 at 10:20 pm to SECbro
Alright, Louisiana. What the hell did you do that you're not telling the rest of us?
Posted on 10/25/20 at 10:21 pm to sicboy
Perfect season and Natty!!!
Posted on 10/25/20 at 10:22 pm to SECbro
quote:
You know those early am storm watch phone alarms are coming.
Those are NOT good for my heart rate.
Posted on 10/25/20 at 10:23 pm to sicboy
quote:
Alright, Louisiana. What the hell did you do that you're not telling the rest of us?
Someone sold our state to the devil for the 2019 LSU football season.
It really is uncanny just how much stuff went to shite after that game though
Posted on 10/25/20 at 10:24 pm to The Pirate King
Oh my frick
Posted on 10/25/20 at 10:36 pm to The Pirate King
quote:
Someone sold our state to the devil for the 2019 LSU football season.
Between that and the Hard Rock Curse there's been a whole heap of shite come down the line.
You baws need to go find some pig knuckles and chicken feet with the quickness.
Just kidding, of course. Weather is cyclical like that. Next year it could be FL, or TX, or no one.
Posted on 10/25/20 at 10:36 pm to jimbeam
Well, right now it looks like it will be trucking right over my house. I guess on the bright side, if I lose power, there will be some really nice temps and weather afterward. I'd prefer a nice little jog to the east though...I want to be on the west side. I want all of Louisiana to be on the west side.
Posted on 10/25/20 at 10:44 pm to rds dc
5th(?) time Nola has been in the center of initial hurricane forecast path. 0 times has it been hit. We should be ok!
Posted on 10/25/20 at 10:52 pm to Cosmo
2-4 inches max dude?
Posted on 10/25/20 at 11:16 pm to LegendInMyMind
Late night recon just leaving Florida. Curious to see if the center has been able to tuck under the latest convective burst and is working on getting a little more vertically aligned.
There's still that northerly shear working over it as the FL shortwave is still bringing some NW flow across it. It has a window to strengthen pretty quickly if it gets vertically stacked once the shear lets up. We'll know that window is opening as the water vapor starts to expand to the NW instead of being squeezed as the ridge starts to exert it's NW pull.
ETA: 00z GFS coming in stronger, cutting just east of New Orleans and doing the Plaquemines to Mississippi Coast double landfall.
It's east loaded to an extent and starting to feel the shearing effects but still explicitly a hurricane at landfall. A little surprising tbh.
Keeps the dry air out, somehow but you can see how all the moisture is really stacked up on the east side.
Shear there, especially at or above 500 mb but not enough to rip it up. So what's changed?
The upper low in NM/TX is starting to be slowed down some and the ridge over the Atlantic/Florida is a little farther west. Puts SELA and Miss Coast to Mobile in the firing line and the slower progression of the upper low means the shear is arriving a little later.
This is moving in the Euro direction in set up.
This post was edited on 10/25/20 at 11:36 pm
Posted on 10/25/20 at 11:32 pm to sicboy
quote:I attribute all of 2020 to the 2019 LSU Football season
Alright, Louisiana. What the hell did you do that you're not telling the rest of us?
edit: see someone already said it.
This post was edited on 10/25/20 at 11:34 pm
Posted on 10/25/20 at 11:38 pm to Duke
So the speed of that low will have the largest determination of landfall and strength?
Posted on 10/25/20 at 11:42 pm to fightin tigers
quote:
So the speed of that low will have the largest determination of landfall and strength?
Yeah, it erodes the ridge the storm is going to follow around the edge of and the sooner it gets here the more flow out of the SW will start to really pull the storm apart.
There's a lot of uncertainty cooked in with that because it's still hard to get the timing right on that with the computers. Also GFS might still be a little north of the true position to start with, we'll see when recon gets there where it really is. This would get it north faster and have more of an opportunity to miss the bulk of the shear before landfall.
Farther south and it might take a little longer and have a more dramatic turn NE and be weaker.
As always, we'll know more as time goes on.
Posted on 10/25/20 at 11:45 pm to Duke
This thing will fall apart as it gets close to the coast.
Posted on 10/25/20 at 11:55 pm to Duke
quote:
still explicitly a hurricane at landfall. A little surprising tbh.
I don't think anything has a great handle on the positioning and forecast for that low out west. GFS may be seeing that slow down and equating it to less shear on approach. It wouldn't be unprecedented, but I'm not buying a hurricane at landfall right now. We need some soundings from NM to GA now to throw in the mix.
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