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re: Will the anticipated 3 rate cuts jump-start residential home sales this year?

Posted on 3/22/24 at 4:16 pm to
Posted by TigerTitleHunter
Red Stick
Member since Jan 2008
461 posts
Posted on 3/22/24 at 4:16 pm to
The amount and speed of the rate hikes were an overreaction to inflation caused by the overreaction of COVID policies that crippled the global economies without much consideration. Not saying either of those things should have had no response at all, it's the just the responses for both were way too much.

Just my humble opinion.
Posted by SECdragonmaster
Order of the Dragons
Member since Dec 2013
16214 posts
Posted on 3/22/24 at 4:46 pm to
quote:

Nope

If anything rates should go higher


Yes.

We need rates closer to 9.5 for about 25 years to combat all the inflation from over printing money for the last decade.
Posted by SalE
At the beach
Member since Jan 2020
2414 posts
Posted on 3/22/24 at 5:53 pm to
No
Posted by Jmcc64
alabama
Member since Apr 2021
532 posts
Posted on 3/22/24 at 6:12 pm to
They're carving out subdivisions left and right here in AL and selling them. I don't know where the buyers are coming from but it doesn't seem to be an issue.
Posted by Strannix
District 11
Member since Dec 2012
48925 posts
Posted on 3/22/24 at 6:21 pm to
We need three more raises to get these poors in check. If you cant afford it dont buy it.
Posted by Ziippy
Member since Aug 2023
1025 posts
Posted on 3/22/24 at 6:40 pm to
quote:


We need rates closer to 9.5 for about 25 years to combat all the inflation from over printing money for the last decade

Inflation is three percent - lower than it was during the Reagan morning in America.

Posted by SDVTiger
Cabo San Lucas
Member since Nov 2011
73690 posts
Posted on 3/22/24 at 6:41 pm to
75% for a June cut

We will see PCE next week
Posted by Strannix
District 11
Member since Dec 2012
48925 posts
Posted on 3/22/24 at 6:44 pm to
quote:

Inflation is three percent - lower than it was during the Reagan morning in America.


Imagine believing this
Posted by fallguy_1978
Best States #50
Member since Feb 2018
48547 posts
Posted on 3/22/24 at 6:46 pm to
Rates are pretty much near historical averages. They'll cut them though because they don't want to pay current rates on our massive national debt.
Posted by EngTiger
Member since Aug 2017
34 posts
Posted on 3/22/24 at 6:49 pm to
No way rate cuts come to fruition
Posted by ronricks
Member since Mar 2021
6678 posts
Posted on 3/22/24 at 6:53 pm to
quote:

Just buy now and refinance when they cut - Bimbo real estate bitch wanting her 6%


I get what you are saying and I agree about how useless most RE agents are but I’ve come to realize it’s never really a bad time to buy property especially in major metropolitan areas with jobs. I’m not saying for someone to trade their 3% rate for a 6.8% one I’m speaking mainly to the people who don’t currently own and are looking to buy. If they buy now and rates continue to go up they win and if they buy now and rates go down they can refi and win. It’s a win-win in this low inventory market we have that isn’t going to change anytime soon despite wishcasting by doom and gloomers.
Posted by Longhorn Actual
Member since Dec 2023
919 posts
Posted on 3/22/24 at 7:04 pm to
quote:

Maybe I'm just an economic dumbass, but it seems like, in modern market history, mortgage rates and home prices seem to roughly balance each other out, when it comes to total monthly payment.


They typically have an inverse relationship yes, but the question is will home prices decrease enough to offset the higher interest rate?

For this last rate hike the answer to that was a resounding no. House prices didn't move much.


That assumption assumes adequate inventory. We don't have that, for several reasons. Prices won't be coming down significantly until the supply side is back in balance (new home stock, waves of foreclosures, etc.).
Posted by Triggerr
Member since Jul 2013
1891 posts
Posted on 3/22/24 at 7:27 pm to
This 3 rate cut idea was latched on to and pushed hard by the realtors. Pushed hard by some male residential realtors I have dealings with. I politely laughed, I just don’t see it with what is still going, presidential election etc
Posted by ManWithNoNsme
Member since Feb 2022
430 posts
Posted on 3/22/24 at 7:42 pm to
You are absolutely correct. We should be a minimum of 2 percent higher but the savers have been getting butt fricked for 17 years for the sake of Wall Street. We need a Fed Chairman like Volcker with some balls to do the job. Good luck with that in an Election Year. frick grandma eating cat food to survive…we have wars to launder billions through. Oh, and we “just don’t have the money for universal healthcare and running out for SS”. But I’ll be GD…found a few more billion lying around for Ukraine to launder though.
Posted by RealDawg
Dawgville
Member since Nov 2012
9385 posts
Posted on 3/22/24 at 8:04 pm to
quote:

Govt spending is the real problem. Fed trying to reduce inflation while FJB spending. Dumbasses.


This.

Don’t often agree with Fed but they have been battling government that refused to stop spending.

Based on dot plot and fed speak, I do think they make two cuts with large gap between them this year.
Posted by Gravitiger
Member since Jun 2011
10419 posts
Posted on 3/23/24 at 3:09 am to
quote:

They typically have an inverse relationship yes, but the question is will home prices decrease enough to offset the higher interest rate?

For this last rate hike the answer to that was a resounding no. House prices didn't move much.
quote:

That assumption assumes adequate inventory. We don't have that, for several reasons. Prices won't be coming down significantly until the supply side is back in balance (new home stock, waves of foreclosures, etc.).
Thanks to both of you. This was informative.
Posted by Gravitiger
Member since Jun 2011
10419 posts
Posted on 3/23/24 at 3:50 am to
quote:

No, because MBS rates aren’t affected by SOFR. That’s without considering builder profitability.
Use your words.
Posted by SlidellCajun
Slidell la
Member since May 2019
10414 posts
Posted on 3/23/24 at 1:12 pm to
quote:

This doesn't make sense. Home sales are low because supply of homes for sale is low - not because there aren't enough buyers


Supply is indeed low but why?
Supply is low because rates are high which smothers buyers and it sellers in place.

Supply is low because sellers would have to ditch their low rate mortgage for a higher rate mortgage.

The buyers that exist, awe’re either cash buyers or those that use a mortgage.
the ones that use a mortgage are most likely going to wait for that moment that rates come down.

This can be second home buyers, renters or people looking to change their location for whatever reason.

This post was edited on 3/23/24 at 2:27 pm
Posted by Jcorye1
Tom Brady = GoAT
Member since Dec 2007
71409 posts
Posted on 3/23/24 at 1:42 pm to
quote:

Will the anticipated 3 rate cuts jump-start residential home sales this year?



People need to stop being idiots and spending stupidly. GF and I were buying a house last year, and we were competing against people that made maybe half of what we do combined. If you're making 100K, maybe you don't need a 450k house.
Posted by PetroBabich
Donetsk Oblast
Member since Apr 2017
4619 posts
Posted on 3/23/24 at 2:09 pm to
quote:

GF and I were buying a house last year


If you don't want to marry her you don't need to buy a house with her.
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