re: Why is the labor market so strong right now if robots are coming for our jerbs?

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UBI is a fallacy and not needed for another century or later.

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contradicting yourself a bit, eh?

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but as an Engineer I can assure you we are not at the point where UBI should even be a discussion.

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Has anyone made the claim that we are?

Yes, but I don't believe any of those threads are about now or even in the near future

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Salmon! You know damn well we have at least one UBI thread a month here.

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there is, but no one is saying we need it right now. we're not that far off from UBI being a necessity. i give it 25-50 years.

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there is, but no one is saying we need it right now. we're not that far off from UBI being a necessity. i give it 25-50 years.

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Once IoT is not in prehistoric mode and the layered network is in place, you will see more automation movement across industries.

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This is all manufactured automation. It isn't intelligent.

I believe most people that think robots will eventually replace our jobs are speaking of intelligent automation.

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Maybe, but that's not what that famous shitty Oxford study people like to cite takes into account. The one where they, in their infinite wisdom, went down a list of job types and checked off what they think should be automated. I think it's kind of multifaceted, but one significant aspect for what I believe needs to happen is that we need to achieve something approaching true AGI, which we have no way of knowing precisely how far off we are from that... but almost certainly not a decade away in a manner that would apply to the entire labor market.

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What? What argument are you assuming I'm making?

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I'm not really arguing with you in particular. But those who read shitty articles quoting Elon Musk, Bill Gross, and others about the threat of AI and why we need UBI, and take it as gospel.

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Lou Pai

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:woosh:

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but one significant aspect for what I believe needs to happen is that we need to achieve something approaching true AGI, which we have no way of knowing precisely how far off we are from that...

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which is why I originally stated that we didn't have the technology yet

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and others about the threat of AI and why we need UBI, and take it as gospel.

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do you not believe intelligent AI would be a thread in the future?

Google didn't buy 8 robotics factories for no reason

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Could it be that the hand-waving and hysterics about AI/automation displacing labor was short-sighted?

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It's not short sighted, it just isn't here yet. People declared BlockBuster Video dead about 10 years before it actually died. These kind of economic transformations are a process, but the process is beginning. I saw an article yesterday about Jack in the Box looking at replacing cashiers with Kiosks. They ran a test in 2009 and found that it was actually more efficient, but the upfront cost kept them from converting. Now that many states are looking at increasing minimum wage, the up front cost of the kiosks isn't as big of a problem and their CEO say it "makes sense" now. LINK

If that works out for Jack you know the rest of the fast food industry will follow, and soon the lowest job in the economy that pretty much anyone with a pulse could get before is all of a sudden no longer available. Driver jobs, customer service jobs, even technical jobs, AI is starting to match and exceed human radiologists for accuracy in diagnosis.

What's coming is going to be massive and disruptive. It will be short term historically, we'll eventually find new niches to fill and ways to work with tech, but it will feel like long term suffering for the people living through it feeling like they no longer fit the economy.