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Message
Why is the labor market so strong right now if robots are coming for our jerbs?
Posted on 1/11/18 at 9:21 am
Posted on 1/11/18 at 9:21 am
U.S. unemployment has continued to hover around a 17-year low of 4.1%, and jobless claims have persisted under the 300k mark for 149 consecutive weeks. Labor force participation remains somewhat muted vs. historic levels, but the trend of decline has flattened out over the past couple of years. Retail employment has declined, but manufacturing employment is very strong. Wages are beginning to witness early signs of expansion.
It's not just the U.S., but broad-based. Canada UE is at lowest level since 1976. Germany is at a record low UE rate. The overall Eurozone unemployment rate has fallen to its lowest level since 2009. Even Japan, which has struggled with deflation and an aging population, has seen its UE rate drop to 2.7%, the lowest such level since 1993.
Why is this happening? It's 2018. Could it be that the hand-waving and hysterics about AI/automation displacing labor was short-sighted? What am I missing? Or better yet, what are employers missing?
It's not just the U.S., but broad-based. Canada UE is at lowest level since 1976. Germany is at a record low UE rate. The overall Eurozone unemployment rate has fallen to its lowest level since 2009. Even Japan, which has struggled with deflation and an aging population, has seen its UE rate drop to 2.7%, the lowest such level since 1993.
Why is this happening? It's 2018. Could it be that the hand-waving and hysterics about AI/automation displacing labor was short-sighted? What am I missing? Or better yet, what are employers missing?
This post was edited on 1/11/18 at 9:22 am
14
Posted on 1/11/18 at 9:23 am to Lou Pai
People are building the robots. Duh.
Posted on 1/11/18 at 9:24 am to Lou Pai
Manufacturing is coming back to the US thanks to GEOTUS.
Remember in 2020 that no democrat voted for any of this.
Remember in 2020 that no democrat voted for any of this.
Posted on 1/11/18 at 9:25 am to Lou Pai
quote:
Why is this happening? It's 2018. Could it be that the hand-waving and hysterics about AI/automation displacing labor was short-sighted? What am I missing? Or better yet, what are employers missing?
Umm, the robuts aren't widely available and/or cost effective yet.
Bank tellers will go the way of the dinosaur, for instance, but that doesn't change the fact you need them right now.
Posted on 1/11/18 at 9:25 am to Lou Pai
Because Asians will ultimately lose out, and not be the cause of the end of man anymore.
Posted on 1/11/18 at 9:26 am to Lou Pai
because the technology isn't there yet?
Posted on 1/11/18 at 9:26 am to Lou Pai
Perhaps fallible man can't actually predict the future?
Posted on 1/11/18 at 9:27 am to Lou Pai
Luddite Fallacy
quote:
The Luddite fallacy is the simple observation that new technology does not lead to higher overall unemployment in the economy. New technology doesn't destroy jobs – it only changes the composition of jobs in the economy.
Posted on 1/11/18 at 9:29 am to slackster
quote:
Bank tellers will go the way of the dinosaur, for instance, but that doesn't change the fact you need them right now.
I was wondering just the other day why we still have so many bank branches. I think I've gone into a bank about 1-2 times in the past 5 years.
Posted on 1/11/18 at 9:30 am to slackster
quote:
Bank tellers will go the way of the dinosaur, for instance, but that doesn't change the fact you need them right now.
Funny you say that. Bank teller technology has been automated for over a decade now. The number of ATMs in the U.S economy quadrupled in size from 100k to 400k between 1995-2010. But US bank teller employment actually rose slightly from 500k to 550k over 1980-2010. Why?
Posted on 1/11/18 at 9:33 am to Salmon
quote:
because the technology isn't there yet?
What? What about kiosks, robots involved in manufacturing, algorithmic trading, etc., etc.?
That said, I think you're on to something! It's almost like these types of transitions happen gradually and are subject to different layers of complexity in different industries.
Posted on 1/11/18 at 9:34 am to Lou Pai
quote:
Why is this happening?
Oprah already doing work
Posted on 1/11/18 at 9:35 am to Lou Pai
quote:
coming for our jerbs
WTF is a jerb?
Posted on 1/11/18 at 9:36 am to Peazey
quote:
Luddite Fallacy
Is based on long term employment numbers. It's widely accepted that technology can cause short-term employment issues.
Posted on 1/11/18 at 9:37 am to 50_Tiger
quote:
Manufacturing is coming back to the US thanks to GEOTUS. Remember in 2020 that no democrat voted for any of this.
You’re smarter than this and way to make it political
Posted on 1/11/18 at 9:38 am to crewdepoo
quote:
You’re smarter than this and way to make it political
But its true?
Removal of ~100 + regulations unshackled the economy.
The tax plan is borderline making 15/hr happen. I'll admit this has no bearing on jobs coming back but it's nice.
Companies are cutting deals with the US and bringing manufacturing back home.
I'll grab the actual statistics but this was news, not a few weeks back.
This post was edited on 1/11/18 at 9:39 am
Posted on 1/11/18 at 9:39 am to Lou Pai
quote:
What? What about kiosks, robots involved in manufacturing, algorithmic trading, etc., etc.?
This is all manufactured automation. It isn't intelligent.
I believe most people that think robots will eventually replace our jobs are speaking of intelligent automation.
Read the "STEM Fallacy" in the Luddite Fallacy link.
quote:
That said, I think you're on to something! It's almost like these types of transitions happen gradually and are subject to different layers of complexity in different industries.
What? What argument are you assuming I'm making?
Posted on 1/11/18 at 9:39 am to slackster
So I guess my comment was not related to this subject at all. Thanks again. Keep up your stellar work as the posting police, frick face.
This post was edited on 1/11/18 at 9:40 am
Posted on 1/11/18 at 9:39 am to Salmon
UBI is a fallacy and not needed for another century or later.
This post was edited on 1/11/18 at 9:40 am
Posted on 1/11/18 at 9:40 am to 50_Tiger
quote:
But its true?
OP made a strong case for it being global. That isn't all because of Trump.
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