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re: Why is the labor market so strong right now if robots are coming for our jerbs?
Posted on 1/11/18 at 10:40 am to Lou Pai
Posted on 1/11/18 at 10:40 am to Lou Pai
quote:
It's also commonly used by charlatans on message boards, etc. to appeal to authority and make an argument for UBI.
Do you not see some form of UBI in the future?
You seem to be arguing against things that no one is making
This post was edited on 1/11/18 at 10:41 am
0
Posted on 1/11/18 at 10:41 am to 50_Tiger
Posted on 1/11/18 at 10:50 am to TigerinATL
quote:
I stated why, they weren't comfortable paying the upfront costs before
Why has no company done this on a wide scale yet if the technology has existed for decades, over which wages generally increased?
Also, do you think full service restaurants do this as well? Would do you think happens to quality of service in this new paradigm for the restaurant industry?
quote:
If computers/robots can answer our phones
They can already do this. But working through an automated system sucks arse... see Ally.
quote:
Doing what? Writing programs to control the machines? That's not even close to the wheel house of many of the people that are going to be displaced. If computers/robots can answer our phones and drive our cars and ring up our purchases in 5-10 years, and then they'll be making our food, stocking our shelves, folding our clothes, and delivering our packages in 10-20 years, where exactly is the low-no skilled laborer going to find a job?
I'm not sure. Obviously the rejoinder to that is, no one knew what the internet was in the '80s, and what would happen with the tech sector. But here we are. And while the hardships faced by those in the rust belt were well documented in this last election cycle, they generally don't apply to the economy writ large, as people transition to find new ways to work. As humans continue to insatiably consume more and more stuff, people are going to find creative ways to make money off of it. This is the crux of David Autor's thesis (professor at MIT), and I would suggest looking up his thoughts on this topic if you haven't already.
This post was edited on 1/11/18 at 10:52 am
Posted on 1/11/18 at 10:54 am to Lou Pai
why do you seem to be only focusing on the short term?
Posted on 1/11/18 at 11:03 am to Lou Pai
quote:
Part of my annoyance with the study is not only the methodology, but also the doom-and-gloom headlines that were derived from it by shitty articles (which I also alluded to in this thread). It's also commonly used by charlatans on message boards, etc. to appeal to authority and make an argument for UBI.
That's true of most studies and not really a fault of the study itself. It's a common problem in media and the public of drawing conclusions that the studies didn't claim or even attempt to prove
Posted on 1/11/18 at 11:05 am to Lou Pai
quote:
Funny you say that. Bank teller technology has been automated for over a decade now. The number of ATMs in the U.S economy quadrupled in size from 100k to 400k between 1995-2010. But US bank teller employment actually rose slightly from 500k to 550k over 1980-2010. Why?
Because US population grew more than 35%.
A few more tellers, and a lot more ATMs, were needed to serve the many more customers. Bank tellers' overall share of the workforce fell substantially.
Posted on 1/11/18 at 11:10 am to Salmon
Well, one reason I am is that part of the argument for post-recession labor market weakness as well as stagnating wages has been the notion that automation has displaced workers following the recession. Also many technologies in robotics and artificial intelligence have already been implemented on large scale across multiple industries (manufacturing, finance). My point is that people make grandiose assumptions about massive transformations in the labor market that basically amount to hand-waving.
And yes, people have been claiming this was going to begin to unfold a lot more imminently and rapidly than you suggest.
And yes, people have been claiming this was going to begin to unfold a lot more imminently and rapidly than you suggest.
Posted on 1/11/18 at 11:15 am to Speedy G
That's exactly right, and it also corresponds to the increase in branches over that time frame, while employment in the market obviously grew at significantly faster rate. But the jobs didn't disappear simply because of the inception of ATMs.
Posted on 1/11/18 at 11:19 am to Lou Pai
We still have bank tellers because old folks need someone to talk to when they aren't at the doctor
Posted on 1/11/18 at 11:24 am to Lou Pai
quote:
That's exactly right, and it also corresponds to the increase in branches over that time frame, while employment in the market obviously grew at significantly faster rate. But the jobs didn't disappear simply because of the inception of ATMs.
The new ones pretty much did.
Posted on 1/11/18 at 2:27 pm to Lou Pai
quote:
Why has no company done this on a wide scale yet if the technology has existed for decades, over which wages generally increased?
This is just California, but in 2009, when Jack in the Box first ran the kiosk trial, minimum wage was $8 an hour. As of this month it is now $11 an hour. That's a 37.5% increase. The price and ability of kiosks has also likely come down in that same time period as tech prices typically do. It's pretty easy to understand why they think it makes sense now but didn't in 2009 when the numbers in the equation were much different.
quote:
Also, do you think full service restaurants do this as well?
This is 3rd party info so they may have gotten the details wrong, but as I was discussing the article I linked about Jack in the Box with someone they mentioned a restaurant chain that was getting rid of employees that were there just to clean the tables. That doesn't sound like a McDonalds kind of place, sounds more like a Zoe's, but yes service will decline where it can. That's a cost cutting measure, not really automation, but wherever human labor can be taken out of the equation it will be.
quote:
They can already do this. But working through an automated system sucks arse... see Ally.
Google and Amazon have released several of their AI and voice recognition APIs to developers in the last year. With people developing call center software being able to leverage what Google and Amazon have learned from their voice assistants, the automated systems should eventually stop sucking.
quote:
Obviously the rejoinder to that is, no one knew what the internet was in the '80s
The difference is this is like the Internet plus the robotics that hit manufacturing in the 70s and 80s plus outsourcing that has hit other markets like apparrel all happening at the same time. I do think long term everything will be fine but there may be at least a 10 year period where a lot of people have trouble providing any value to the economy even though our economic output will be higher than ever.
Posted on 1/11/18 at 3:41 pm to Peazey
quote:
So I guess my comment was not related to this subject at all. Thanks again. Keep up your stellar work as the posting police, frick face.
You're unreasonably salty.
Sorry you didn't get the joke yesterday.
Posted on 1/12/18 at 10:28 am to Peazey
quote:
The Luddite fallacy is the simple observation that new technology does not lead to higher overall unemployment in the economy. New technology doesn't destroy jobs – it only changes the composition of jobs in the economy.
The difference is previous technologies focused on making the workers more productive. This wave of technology is directly targeted at replacing workers. Of course there will be new jobs created, but these are going to be highly technical jobs or jobs that most Americans don't want. A vast majority of paper pushing middle class jobs that require little skill will eventually be pushed out, and that work force largely will not want to learn the skills necessary for the new set of jobs.
As more industries become technology industries, more jobs become ripe for automation and offshoring. If you take classes on the MOOC platforms that are largely American based. You will notice that international students make up a significant portion of the people willing to learn.
Also, the new wave of technology is easily replicable. So once sufficiently good and affordable, it's adoption will be exponential. Just because people in the past predicted certain technologies will replace jobs and it didn't go through, doesn't mean the next wave of technology won't. As the saying goes history doesn't repeat, it does rhyme though.
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