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re: What will happen to the poor, unskilled people when the robots come?
Posted on 2/25/16 at 4:29 pm to mdomingue
Posted on 2/25/16 at 4:29 pm to mdomingue
quote:
Ultimately, with robotics, in particular, and technology, in general, there is always a cost/payback line. this is particularly true for menial labor,
I think you're failing to see the bigger picture. It won't be advances in robotics, it will be advances in software. Pretty soon there will be programs designing the robotics which will make them more efficient and cheaper than anything a human could design. Once that happens, then the advancement in robotics and manufacturing will start to happen at a much more accelerated rate.
1
Posted on 2/25/16 at 4:32 pm to fr33manator
Basic answer: they will continue to be poor, unskilled people
Posted on 2/25/16 at 4:38 pm to fr33manator
To be fair, everyone below mid level managers at most firms are completely unnecessary in today's computer driven corporate culture
Posted on 2/25/16 at 4:49 pm to Number2
In the next gif the robot tears his head off.
Posted on 2/25/16 at 5:29 pm to Jim Rockford
Not sure how people are coming to the conclusion that attorneys will become automated in the foreseeable future. The notion makes no sense.
This post was edited on 2/25/16 at 5:30 pm
Posted on 2/25/16 at 5:31 pm to fr33manator
Grind them up and sell as feedstock for the robots' power generation plants.
Posted on 2/25/16 at 5:36 pm to ManBearTiger
quote:
Not sure how people are coming to the conclusion that attorneys will become automated in the foreseeable future. The notion makes no sense.
Some corporations are already offshoring routine contract stuff. No reason AI couldn't do the same thing eventually. There will always be a need for litigators and negotiators, but a lot of what attorneys do is mundane crap that a sufficiently intelligent machine could easily perform.
Same for the other professions. Nobody's saying human doctors or architects will disappear, but there will be a lot fewer of them, and their work will be highly integrated into the robotic world.
Posted on 2/25/16 at 6:03 pm to TigerinATL
quote:
It's not just hitting one industry, this wave of technology will hit the low hanging fruit of every industry practically all at once. You won't see the new tech slowly creep from segment to segment of the economy, like the ATM mainstreaming and then 15 years later self checkout at the grocery store comes along. You'll see everyone that drives for a living become less valuable in the span of maybe 5 years. Truck drivers, taxi drivers, limo drivers, even the soccer mom might lose her job to a Johnny Cab. When you go to a doctor or lawyer now, you may interact with 2-4 people before you see the actual professional. Most if not all of those front line people will be replaced by interactive kiosks that will handle the basic assessment.
I think you're over blowing much of this. You actually highlighted a common misconception about ATMs. I highly recommend that everyone read this paper by an economist at MIT. Your ATM reference is a primary reason he investigated the issue.
I would also argue that the rate of adoption of kiosks in the industries you mention is remarkably slow. Why don't kiosks exist everywhere now, and why don't banks have massive job cuts in their retail divisions? The result that has occurred is that employee resources have been shifted to other functions. And the technology has been around for over a decade, and it is utilized in a very important, regular function for people. We can conclude that there probably isn't as much demand as some may think. I think it's pretty reasonable to think this trend will continue for other technologies.
Also, automation and software development have existed for quite some time now, and companies have done belt tightening in coming out the recession. Yet the US has still managed to gain solid footing in the labor market by most measures. Wage improvement is the last piece of the puzzle, but there is initial evidence that this is firming up.
This is a topic that has worried me in the past, and I think it will in fact happen, but perhaps more gradually than some expect, such that the overall effects are mitigated a bit. Also, there is simply no way driverless cars start to really diminish folks who work in the transportation industry in 5 years time. People are overestimating the rate of consumer and industrial adoption of these technologies.
There are other parallel topics that are very important to me, probably more concerning than this. There is the potential that due to cost deflation in manufacturing and commodities, economic growth around the world is stagnating, which is bad news for everyone who wants to retire one day. Another pretty famous economist Tyler Cowen has a white paper basically arguing that we have captured all the low hanging fruit (think rate of transportation advancements in the 20th century), and another famous economist Robert Gordon seems to agree with that assertion. Counter to all this is the notion that this is all irrelevant, as our economic models based on scarcity break down due to abundance. That is a long way from here though.
This post was edited on 2/25/16 at 6:09 pm
Posted on 2/25/16 at 6:08 pm to fr33manator
It's not good for civil order to have a large percentage of your population sitting around doing nothing, even if they are getting housed, fed, and clothed by the govt. They get the right person to stir them up, then the riots start.
Posted on 2/25/16 at 6:13 pm to fr33manator
quote:
What will happen to the poor, unskilled people when the robots come?
Slaves for the robots. Then the robots won't have to work as hard.
Posted on 2/25/16 at 7:20 pm to Lou Pai
quote:
Lou Pai
Always a well reason ed and sobering opinion on the subject. Well said sir.
quote:
You actually highlighted a common misconception about ATMs. I highly recommend that everyone read this paper by an economist at MIT.
Will read and rebut next time I have downtime at work and I'm more sober.
Posted on 2/25/16 at 7:25 pm to fr33manator
What great skills do you arrogant chumps bring? Playing with a computer?
Posted on 2/25/16 at 7:39 pm to TheWalrus
quote:
What great skills do you arrogant chumps bring? Playing with a computer?
I murder robots.
Business is slow right now but I have faith.
Posted on 2/25/16 at 8:20 pm to Lou Pai
I was listening to a guy named Martin Ford a few months back.
He was going into pretty good detail about how rapidly new technology is replacing 'white collar' high paying positions.
I want to see ever increasing improvement and technological improvements as much as anyone.
However, at the expense sounding 'Luddite', people say new software and robots will replace 100 workers BUT it will create new jobs in its place.
OK, fine.
The problem(s) is now that these 100 people displaced are now out of a job, most likely middle aged or older workers with not too many options left for them.
Plus only a few people can operate, maintain & design new computer programs, machines and robots.
New automation, machinery and computer software replaces 100 workers but it now only takes 10 workers to perform those tasks.
Now you have 90 folks without a job and the means to take care of themselves or their families.
Automation is a fact of life, especially in the workplace & in industry/business.
Always has been, always will be.
Businesses rise, businesses fall.
Industries rise, industries fall.
More and more people are being displaced by automation and improvements. Problems arise though. Masses of people sitting around day after day, month after month, year after year, with nothing to do equals unstable society.
Even though their physical needs are being met, ie housing, food, medical care...people become resentful and become very easily manipulated by opportunist demagogues.
I want to see progress as much as anyone else.
What's the answer. I dunno.
He was going into pretty good detail about how rapidly new technology is replacing 'white collar' high paying positions.
I want to see ever increasing improvement and technological improvements as much as anyone.
However, at the expense sounding 'Luddite', people say new software and robots will replace 100 workers BUT it will create new jobs in its place.
OK, fine.
The problem(s) is now that these 100 people displaced are now out of a job, most likely middle aged or older workers with not too many options left for them.
Plus only a few people can operate, maintain & design new computer programs, machines and robots.
New automation, machinery and computer software replaces 100 workers but it now only takes 10 workers to perform those tasks.
Now you have 90 folks without a job and the means to take care of themselves or their families.
Automation is a fact of life, especially in the workplace & in industry/business.
Always has been, always will be.
Businesses rise, businesses fall.
Industries rise, industries fall.
More and more people are being displaced by automation and improvements. Problems arise though. Masses of people sitting around day after day, month after month, year after year, with nothing to do equals unstable society.
Even though their physical needs are being met, ie housing, food, medical care...people become resentful and become very easily manipulated by opportunist demagogues.
I want to see progress as much as anyone else.
What's the answer. I dunno.
Posted on 2/25/16 at 8:27 pm to Reubaltaich
Part of the answer is guaranteed income. I know that's hard to swallow for ultracapitalist Americans but I think the overlords will eventually see that's a better alternative to the masses cutting off their heads.
Posted on 2/25/16 at 8:30 pm to fr33manator
The answer is pretty simple. We build, using the labor of the people who can't find meaningful employment, huge pre-industrial farming communities. It will give the people work while retaining the vanishing popular knowledge of how to live off the land. We keep the people occupied and gainfully employed working to insulate us from the effects of unknowns like EMP attacks.
Posted on 2/25/16 at 8:32 pm to keakdasneak
quote:
Part of the answer is guaranteed income. I know that's hard to swallow for ultracapitalist Americans but I think the overlords will eventually see that's a better alternative to the masses cutting off their heads.
Or how about having people generate power through the use of some sort of treadmill system! It's green!
Posted on 2/25/16 at 10:12 pm to Reubaltaich
Full disclosure, I'm drunk.
This is where I have a real problem with these conversations. You treat the entire population like children, idle hands are the devil's playground.
I think that people could lead very fulfilling lives without work. You could learn to fish or write poetry or any number of things that could fill your time without a job you have to do. We have this horrible notion of welfare queens doing nothing with their time, but I think we could find things to make life worth living without a job that we hate.
quote:
Problems arise though. Masses of people sitting around day after day, month after month, year after year, with nothing to do equals unstable society.
This is where I have a real problem with these conversations. You treat the entire population like children, idle hands are the devil's playground.
I think that people could lead very fulfilling lives without work. You could learn to fish or write poetry or any number of things that could fill your time without a job you have to do. We have this horrible notion of welfare queens doing nothing with their time, but I think we could find things to make life worth living without a job that we hate.
Posted on 2/25/16 at 10:16 pm to LucasP
quote:
You could learn to fish or write poetry
What kind of Kansas City fäggot shite is this?
Posted on 2/26/16 at 12:00 am to LucasP
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